危机与改革：赞比亚经济改革历程探析（1975-2008）

【作者】 严磊；

【导师】 舒运国；

【作者基本信息】 上海师范大学 ， 世界史， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 历史地看,早在十几万年以前,赞比西河流域就出现了人类活动的印迹。随着生产力水平的逐步提高,早期的赞比亚人民也已经开始从事简单的经济生产和贸易活动。到殖民建立以前,赞比亚已经同周边地区和外部世界建立起来一定的生产贸易往来,为市场经济的出现和发展奠定了基础。殖民统治时期,是赞比亚现代经济产生、发展的重要历史阶段。在殖民主义掠夺式的发展政策指导下,赞比亚逐步建立起以铜矿开采业为主的单一制经济结构,制造业和农业的发展则相对比较落后。单一制经济结构和二元化经济体系的出现,给赞比亚独立后的经济发展埋下了巨大的隐患。独立后的最初十年是赞比亚经济高速发展的黄金时代。在国有化、进口替代等发展政策的指导之下,赞比亚的民族经济得到了迅猛的发展,初步建立起以计划经济为基础,以市场经济为补充的混合经济体系。然而到上世纪70年代中期,随着国际市场上原材料价格的大幅波动,赞比亚的经济发展遭到了沉重的打击,国民经济出现了持续的衰退。而与此同时,独立初期赞比亚政府制定的国有化、进口替代、农业等发展政策的弊端开始逐步显现出来,国家陷入严重的经济危机之中。迫于经济形势恶化的压力,从上世纪80年代初,赞比亚政府不得不同国际货币基金组织等国际金融组织合作,对国民经济实行结构调整改革。其中1983-1987年的经济改革,时间虽然非常短暂,但却在赞比亚的经济发展历程中占有非常重要的历史地位。赞比亚80年代结构调整改革的失败对于赞比亚的社会、经济发展具有决定性的影响,导致国家陷入了全面的经济、政治危机,整体形势更加恶化。民主化改革以后,赞比亚的经济发展,进入了一个新的历史时期。在国际货币基金组织和其他援助方的大力支持下,赞比亚的展开了新一轮的结构调整改革,私有化、自由化等多项经济改革政策得到了全面的执行、实施。到上世纪90年代中期,在经历了沉痛的衰退之后,赞比亚的国民经济一度出现了稳定发展的局面。然而,后来随着矿业改革的延迟等因素的影响,赞比亚的经济发展再次出现恶化的迹象。进入新世纪以来,在姆瓦纳瓦萨“新政”、减贫战略、债务减免计划,以及国际市场上原材料价格上涨等一系列有利因素的推动下,赞比亚的国民经济出现了持续的增长和稳步回升。国家经济的发展一度出现了复兴的迹象。但是客观地讲,当前赞比亚的国民经济发展中还存在着不少问题。如何才能推动国民经济的可持续发展,仍然是赞比亚当前面临的一个巨大挑战。更多还原

【Abstract】 Historically, as early as Hundreds of thousands of years ago, there were some human activities in the areas of Zambezi River Basin. Gradually with the Evolution of productivity, early people of Zambia have also started to embark on some simple economic productions and trade activities. Until to the colonization rule was established, Zambia has set up some trade and commercial relationships with the surrounding area and the outside world, making a foundation for the emergence and development of a market economy.The colonial period was an important historical stage for the emergence and development of Zambia’s modern economy. Under the guidance of Predatory colonial development policies, Zambia has formed a unitary system, heavily depended on copper mining, manufacturing and agricultural development was relatively backward. And the appeared character of unitary economic structure and dual economic system planted a hidden risk in the Zambia’s economic development.The first decade after independence was a golden age of rapid economic development for Zambia. Under the guidance of nationalization, import substitution and other development policies, Zambia’s national economy has seen a rapid growth, initially established a mixed economic system based on planned economy, and supplemented by market economy. Yet by the mid-70s of last century, since the slump of the prices of raw materials in the international market, the economic development of Zambia has suffered a heavy blow, and the national economy has got in a continued recession as a result. At the same time, the defects of the development policies initially implemented by the independent Government of Zambia, like nationalization, import substitution, agricultural of gradually emerged, and made the country got into a severe economic crisis.Forced by the pressure of the deteriorating economic situation, the Government of Zambia has to implement a structural adjustment reform of the national economy with the help of the IMF and other international financial organizations, from the early 80s of last century. The economic reform during 1983-1987 was a very short time, but occupies a very important place in the history of economic development of Zambia. The failure of the structural adjustment reforms during the 1980s, have a decisive impact on the Zambia’s social and economic development, leading the country into a comprehensive economic and political crisis.After the democratic reform, Zambia’s economic development has entered a new historical period. With the strong support of The International Monetary Fund and other donors, Zambia embarked on a new round of structural adjustment reforms, privatization, liberalization, and many other economic reform policies have been fully implemented. To the mid-90s of the last century, after a painful recession, Zambia’s economy once appeared stable development. However, lately since the delayed reform of the mining industry and other factors impact on the economic development, Zambia recurrence of signs of deterioration.Entering the new century, because the Mwanawasa’s "New Deal", poverty reduction strategies, debt relief plan, as well as the rising raw material prices in international market driven by a series of favorable factors, Zambia’s national economy has sustained growth and steady recovery. National economic development has emerged a sign of recovery. However, objectively speaking, there are still many problems in the current national economic development of Zambia. How can Zambia promote the sustainable development of the national economy is still a great challenge.更多还原