【作者】 高镔；

【导师】 丁任重；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 区域经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 水资源对区域经济发展有着不可缺少和不可替代的作用。随着人口的增长,经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高,西部水资源供需矛盾日益突出。西部各省区水资源承载力现状如何?怎样提高西部水资源承载力,在保证社会、经济稳步增长的同时,实现水资源的可持续利用?带着这样的问题,我们对西部经济发展中的水资源承载力问题进行了深入研究并提出了提高西部水资源承载力的举措。本论文的主要内容是:第一章,导论。主要阐述本选题研究的背景、研究目的和意义、研究的方法,为西部经济发展中的水资源承载力问题进行深入研究奠定基础。同时,对论文可能的创新之处和不足之处进行了说明。第二章,对国内外区域经济基本理论和水资源承载力的研究情况进行了综述。概括了西方区域经济理论的发展阶段及其主要观点,总结我国区域经济发展的理论成果,引发本论文的思路方法。同时,回顾和评析了水资源承载力研究历史、水资源承载力定义的研究情况、水资源承载力的分析方法、研究的用途、成果及存在的问题,为研究提供基础理论支持。第三章,对水资源与区域经济发展的概念进行了界定并作了深入分析研究。在对资源和水资源定义、特点、性质和分类等作了客观深入的分析基础上,提出了科学的水资源观,论述了区域经济发展与水资源关系,分析了水资源对区域经济发展的促进作用和水资源短缺对区域经济发展的制约作用,并指出当前区域经济发展中水环境和水资源面临的主要问题。第四章,对水资源承载力进行了分析和研究。对水资源承载力了进行定义,分析了其特性,对其内涵进行了剖析。分析了影响水资源承载力的因素,提出了水资源承载力研究的必要性、基本原则、步骤、思路和方法,认为用两种模式来表达水资源对人口、社会经济和生态环境的承载力,能同时表达出直接量化和综合协调的目的。综述了区域水资源承载力理论体系,提出要准确回答水资源系统能否支撑社会的区域经济发展、水资源系统支撑社会区域经济发展的能力有多大等问题,还需要深入剖析两者之间的关系,以给水资源承载力研究寻找新思路、新方法。第五章,对西部地区的水资源开发中的问题进行了分析。首先分析了西部地区水资源状况,然后对西北地区和西南地区水资源进行了评价,然后分析了西部地区水资源开发中的问题,认为干旱缺水,水土流失严重,水污染加剧,生态环境恶化,水利基础设施薄弱已经成为西部地区经济社会发展的严重制约因素。实施西部大开发,必须把水利建设放在突出位置,搞好水资源的优化配置,正确处理好水与经济发展和生态环境之间的关系,促进水资源与经济、社会、环境协调发展。第六章,建立了区域宏观经济水资源协调发展模型。将水资源约束条件写入区域宏观经济投入产出模型,针对西部地区,建立宏观经济水资源分析模型。并在总结了评价指标体系方法的优点和不足的基础上提出的双要素水资源承载力计算模型。第七章,根据前几章的分析,建立了西部地区宏观经济水资源利用协调发展模型,并对各省区的水资源利用与宏观经济发展进行了情景分析,分析了未来情景下的西部省区水资源承载力与承载状况,提出了供相关规划的制定提供参考的具体方案。第八章,提出了西部水资源开发利用的思路与措施。对国外提高水资源承载力战略进行了综述,指出科学的发展观是提高西部水资源承载力的有力武器,提出“全面规划、统一管理、合理开发、优化配置、全面节约和有效保护”六条提高西部水资源承载力的措施。本论文的特点和创新点主要包括:将宏观经济投入产出分析技术与水资源开发利用紧密结合,通过模型技术定量研究了西部地区经济发展与水资源开发利用间的复杂互动关系。系统回顾了水资源承载力的概念和内涵,提出了一套科学的、实用性强的水资源承载力理论和评价模型。在总结了评价指标体系方法的优点和不足的基础上提出了双要素水资源承载力计算模型。利用宏观经济水资源协调发展模型和水资源承载力模型,对西部地区未来的水资源开发利用情景进行了分析,提出了利用思路和对策措施。将建立的模型应用于西部地区宏观经济水资源利用协调发展分析的方案对比和分析中,提出了供相关规划的制定提供参考的具体方案。提出了提高西部水资源承载力的措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resource plays an essential and irreplaceable role in regional economic development. With population growth, economic growth and improvement of people’s living conditions, the conflict between supply and demand of western water resource becomes more serious. What is the current situation of water resource bearing capacity in western provinces? How to improve bearing capacity of western water resource and realize sustainable utilization of water resource while ensuring stable social and economic growth? Hereby, we have an in-depth research on the bearing capacity of water resource in the process of western economic development and propose measures to improve the bearing capacity of western water resource.The thesis includes:Chapter I Introduction mainly illustrates research background, aim, significance and methodology, laying a foundation for the further research of bearing capacity of water resource in the process of western economic development. Meanwhile, it points out possible innovation and limitation.Chapter II summarizes basic international and domestic regional economy theories and research on bearing capacity of water resource. It outlines development stages and main points of western regional economy theories and summarizes theoretical fruits of our regional economic development. At the same time, it reviews and comments on research history, definitions, analyzing methods, usages, fruits and existent problems of bearing capacity of water resource, proposing theoretical support for the research.Chapter III defines water resource and regional economic development and makes thorough research. On the basis of an in-depth and objective research into definition, characteristics, quality and types of water resource, it proposes scientific water resource concept, illustrates the relationship between regional economic development and water resource, analyzes pushing impacts of water resource and restricting impacts of water shortage on regional economic development, and proposes prominent problems facing water environment and water resource in the current regional economic development.Chapter IV analyzes and studies bearing capacity of water resource, defines bearing capacity of water resource, analyzes its traits and essence. It analyzes factors influencing bearing capacity of water resource, points out necessity, principal rules, process, ideas and methods of research into bearing capacity of water resource. It holds the view that two modes of expression of bearing capacity of water resource for population, society, economy and ecological environment may satisfy the needs of quantification and comprehensive coordination. It makes a summary of theory system of bearing capacity of regional water resource, proposes such questions as whether water resource system supports regional economic development, and how can water resource system support regional economic development. In addition, we need to further disentangle the relationship between bearing capacity of water resource and regional economic development, discover new ideas and methods for bearing capacity of water resource.Chapter V studies the problems in water resource development of western area. It firstly analyzes the current situation of water resource in western area, and then comments on water resource in northwestern and southwestern areas, analyzes the problems existing in water resource utilization of western area, believing drought, serious loss of water and soil, grave water pollution, deteriorating ecological environment and underdeveloped water conservancy infrastructure has become the bottleneck of social and economic development of western area. The implementation of Western Development must give special emphasis to water conservancy construction and optimization of water resource, properly handle the relationship between water and economic development as well as ecological environment, and promote harmonious development among water resource, economy, society and environment.Chapter VI establishes a model of harmonious development between macro economy and water resource. It puts restriction rules of water resource into an input-output model of regional macro economy and establishes a water resource analysis model of macro economy. It proposes a two-factor water resource bearing capacity calculation model on the basis of summarizing advantages and disadvantages of evaluation index methods.Chapter VII establishes a model of harmonious development between macro economy and water resource utilization on the basis of analysis of previous chapters. It makes a situation analysis on water resource utilization and macro economic development among different provinces. It analyzes bearing capacity and bearing condition of water resource in western provinces in future context, and proposes concrete measures for reference.Chapter VIII points out the direction and measures of western water resource development and utilization. It summarizes foreign strategies of enhancing bearing capacity of water resource, states Scientific Development View is very efficient to improve bearing capacity of western water resource, and proposes 6 measures to improve bearing capacity of western water resource.The characteristics and innovation of this paper are mainly manifested by integration of input-output analytical technology of macro economy and water resource development and utilization, as well as quantitative study on complicated interaction between economic development of western region and water resource development and utilization through model technology. It reviews the definition and connotation of bearing capacity of water resource, and establishes a set of scientific and practical theory of bearing capacity of water resource as well as evaluation model. It proposes a two-factor water resource bearing capacity calculation model on the basis of summarizing advantages and disadvantages of evaluation index methods. It makes an analysis on future water resource development and utilization in western region through the model of harmonious development between macro economy and water resource and the model of bearing capacity of water resource, and proposes suggestions and countermeasures. It applies the model to the project of harmonious development between macro economy of western region and water resource utilization, and proposes concrete measures for reference as well as measures to improve bearing capacity of water resource in western region.更多还原