【作者】 史波；

【导师】 梁静国；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 突发事件应急管理是近几年学术界研究的热点问题之一,它的出现就因为面向实际问题、面向热点问题而备受瞩目。由于突发事件不能事事预见,也不可能事事提前被消灭,但积极有效的应急管理方法和手段,可以达到事前降低发生率、事中很好地应对并降低危害程度、事后减少损失的目的,故短短几年间,应急管理的理论、方法、技术、应用和实践等有了较大的发展。与其它企业相比,煤矿企业具有突发事件多发、影响面较大、损失较多的特性。而煤矿企业生产系统复杂、生产环节多、地质条件复杂多变、生产条件较为恶劣等更要求其提高自身的应急管理水平和应急响应能力。因此,深入、系统地开展煤矿企业应急管理和应急能力研究有着重要的理论和现实意义。本文简要介绍了煤矿生产事故的现状,分析了生产系统的复杂特性,建立了煤矿事故致因模型,并对煤矿事故的发展演化机理进行了深入探讨。针对应急管理系统是一个多层次、多部门、多功能、动态变化的复杂系统现状,建立了煤矿企业应急管理系统的总体框架三维结构模型,科学地表现出煤矿企业应急管理的整体结构、构成要素及其内在关系。为了便于研究和系统建设,本文构建了面向功能的应急管理系统,即系统分为组织指挥系统、应急预案系统、资源保障系统和决策辅助系统。煤矿企业应急组织指挥系统把应急管理和组织设计相结合,沿着目标任务、运行方式、组织结构三层设计的思路展开。在最初应急组织结构和常规职能型应急组织结构分析的基础上,提出了矩阵式煤矿企业应急组织结构。同时,以熵理论为基础,建立定量分析应急组织结构优劣性的模型,指导煤矿企业在不同状况下采用不同组织结构。本文提出积木式煤矿企业应急预案系统,该系统有基本程序、专项程序和支持附件组成,每一部分又分别包含若干要素。对于具体的某一突发事件,重新组合各个部分即可形成专项应急预案。按照预案的时态框架,对应急预案的编制、培训、演练和应用进行了探讨,提出了基于预案的应急决策分类和模型。将成熟度的概念引入到煤矿企业应急预案中,即形成了应急预案成熟度概念,从而用来对应急预案进行科学评价。煤矿企业应急管理的资源保障系统包括人力资源、物资资源、信息资源和应急资金。探讨了应急人力资源的开发管理,提出了一体化的应急人力资源培训开发体系,构建了科学的应急物资快速反应机制,分析了应急信息资源的管理策略,’强调建设合理的应急信息管理制度,并提出扩大应急管理资金的来源保障。在煤矿企业应急管理的决策辅助系统方面,在系统需求分析基础上,探讨设计思想和目标,研究了基于HLA的虚拟仿真框架,进行了煤矿企业突发事件虚拟仿真的体系设计及开发实例分析。同时,对预测预警内容模式和系统组成进行分析,探讨了决策辅助系统中知识获取与推理策略。最后,研究了虚拟仿真和预测决策的结合,提出了基于虚拟现实的煤矿企业应急管理决策辅助系统结构。在建立煤矿企业突发事件应急能力的评价模型的过程中,首先分析了煤矿企业应急能力的内涵、影响因素和评价功能,确定了煤矿企业应急能力的评价流程、评价指标体系的设计、评价结果的价值等。然后,按照评价指标设计原则,建立了煤矿企业应急能力的评价指标体系。最后,基于改进的层次分析法确定了煤矿企业应急能力评价指标的权重,基于灰色系统理论建立了煤矿企业应急能力评价模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 Emergency management is one of the hot research issues in the academic circles in recent years, and it has attracted much attention due to facing reality. It is impossible to foresee and eliminate every unexpected event, but the active and effective emergency management measures can reduce occurrence rate in advance, cope and reduce harm degree when occurring, and decrease loss afterwards. Therefore, during recent years, the emergency management develops rapidly in theory, method, technology, application and practice. Compared with other enterprise, the coal enterprise has characteristics of more emergencies, great influences and great losses. It is important to improve emergency management level and response capability of coal enterprise because of complicated production system, numerous production chain, complicated variable geological condition and bad production condition. So it has important theoretical and practical significances to deeply systematically study emergency management and emergency capability of coal enterprise.The paper briefly introduces the coal mine production accident status, analyzes the complex characteristics of production system, builds a coal mine accident-causing model, and deeply discusses the reasons of coal mine accident frequency. In view of emergency management system being a multi-level, multi-sector, multi-function complex system, it builds the general framework three-dimensional structure model of coal enterprise emergency management system, which is in order to scientifically manifest general structure, elements and internal relationship of emergency management system. In order to conveniently study and build by the numbers, the paper constructs a function-oriented emergency management system, that is, the system is composed of organization command system, emergency plan system, resources guarantee system and decision aiding system.The coal enterprise emergency organization command system combines emergency management and organization design, and are classified into target mission, operation way and organization structure. On the basis of analyzing original emergency organization and function-oriented emergency organization, the paper puts forward the matrix coal enterprise emergency organization. Meanwhile, according to entropy theory, the superiority-inferiority model of quantitative analyzing the emergency organization structure is built, which is in order to guide using different structures in different conditions.The paper proposes the cordwood coal enterprise emergency plan system, which is composed of basic program, special program and supporting accessory and whose part contains some elements. In view of one concrete emergency, the special emergency plan could be formed by these parts. According to time sequence, it discusses the plan’s compilation, training, drilling and application, and puts forward plan-based emergency decision classification and model. Meanwhile, the conception of maturity is introduced to coal enterprise emergency plan, which is used to scientifically evaluate emergency plan.The coal enterprise emergency resources guarantee system contains human resource, material resource, information resource and emergency capital. The paper discusses the development management of emergency human resource, proposes the integrated training development system of emergency human resource, constructs scientific material quick reaction mechanism, analyzes management strategy of emergency information resource, emphasizes building a reasonable emergency information management system, and puts forward enlarging the capital source guarantee.On the aspect of decision aiding system, the paper analyzes the system demand, discusses design thought and aim, studies virtual simulation framework and designs coal enterprise virtual simulation system and an example. Meanwhile, the knowledge acquisition and reasoning strategy in the decision aiding system is discussed. At last, it studies the combination of virtual simulation and decision support, and proposes the coal enterprise emergency management decision aiding system structure based on virtual reality.On the process of building the evaluation model of coal enterprise emergency capability, the paper firstly analyzes the connotation of emergency capability, and determines the evaluation process, the index system design and the evaluation function. Subsequently, according to the evaluation index design principles, the evaluation index system of the coal enterprise emergency capability is built. At last, the improved analytic hierarchy process determines the index weights, and the evaluation model is built by grey system.更多还原