【作者】 王海鸿；

【导师】 牛叔文；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 人文地理学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 “民以食为天、地为粮之本”,耕地是粮食生产的载体,是粮食安全的根本保障。“为政之要,首在足食”,这是历代治国安邦的经验。在农业科技还没有重大突破的情况下,必须要有稳定的一定数量和质量的耕地作保障,以稳定和提高粮食生产能力,保证国家粮食安全。另一方面,能源安全已经成为国家经济安全的重要领域,是一个国家经济增长和社会发展的重要物质基础。世界能源形势的日益紧张使燃料乙醇等生物质能源成为世界能源政策的重要内容。在中国这样一个能源供需矛盾突出、能源自给压力以及环保压力巨大的国家,发展包括生物质能源在内的能源结构多元化战略是一个基本的方向。然而,生物质能源的发展在我国引发能源安全与粮食安全孰轻孰重的巨大争议。粮食问题关系着整个国家的长治久安,具有重要的战略意义。粮食安全、能源安全是不仅是中国,也是世界面临的两大生存问题。粮食安全与能源安全本身具有一定的内在关联,这种关联性主要是因为生产生物质能源,尤其是能源作物要占用原本可用于生产粮食的土地资源,尤其是耕地资源,将与粮食生产形成土地利用的竞争局面,这将导致部分粮食作物用地转换为能源作物用地,由于土地资源有限性,这种转换将会影响到粮食安全问题。本文之所以提出这一问题,是由于粮食安全与能源安全问题已经成为当前影响中国社会经济发展的关键问题,是一定要面对和解决的问题。而这两个问题之间具有共轭的领域,即与土地利用(尤其是农地利用)相关。本文研究的基本目标是试图回答下面以下重要的理论问题:(1)从理论上讲,能源安全问题是否会影响到粮食安全,二者关系的对立统一性如何,是否是“鱼与熊掌不可兼得”的关系。在保障粮食安全的情况下,究竟能够提供多少用于发展生物质液态燃料的耕地资源,或者说,如果要保障能源安全,那么需要提供多少生物质燃料,而这些生物质燃料又要占用多少耕地资源,而这些占用的耕地资源会影响到粮食安全吗?(2)从农地利用角度,如何寻求一个有效途径,以解决或者缓解二者造成的农地利用问题。即能否从理论上寻求一个“双赢”机制,从而实现粮食安全与能源安全的同时实现。(3)粮食作物与能源作物转化的驱动机制,即究竟是何种原因导致粮食作物用地向能源作物用地的转换,简单地看,似乎是两种作物农地比较收益的差异造成的,那么是否还有其他因素在起作用?例如农地制度、农业技术、自然因素等。(4)能源作物的能量转化及平衡问题,即在整个生产生物质能源的生命周期,同样需要耗费大量的能源,如果能量投入大于能量产出,那么这种转化将显得毫无意义。或者说,这种能量转化只是令部分人、部分地区、部分企业或部分国家取得了收益,而对整体无益。(5)粮食安全与能源安全在当今全球经济一体化格局下,不再仅仅是一国(或地区)的个体现象,应该将其纳入到更大的国际空间来考虑。那么,在封闭经济条件与开放经济条件下,一国的生物质能源发展将取决于其资源禀赋决定的比较优势。因此,需要研究在不同条件下(封闭或开放)的粮食安全与能源安全交融作用下的农地利用问题。本论文研究性质定位于理论研究,但是文中不乏实证研究的内容。例如关于中国耕地资源乙醇产出的潜力测算、能源价格与粮食安全的关系测算、粮食产量与耕地面积的相关性分析、可产乙醇作物的生产成本比较等。本文理论研究主要于第4章、第5章、第6章、第7章与第8章,其中纯理论分析主要又集中于第6章——比较收益与农地利用结构转换的关系,第7章——封闭—开放经济条件下粮食安全与能源安全的农地利用分析以及第8章——基于粮食安全成本的农地补偿研究。本文创新点主要集中于第6章、第7章与第8章,其中关于无(有)约束静态(动态)条件下农地利用转换的经济效应分析,本文做了较深入的理论研究。关于封闭经济与开放经济下的两种作物生产的一般均衡,本文的研究也是较详细的。关于粮食安全成本下的农地补偿,做了尝试性研究,此三点为本文提出的新的研究思路。尽管其中有很多问题仍然困扰着笔者,但是希望得出一个初步的研究框架,为后续研究打下一定基础。本文对我国玉米乙醇生产的实证研究结论为,现阶段我国燃料乙醇产业未对我国粮食安全造成影响,按我们的研究结果,到2020年,即使不对燃料乙醇产业加以限制,仍然不会对我国粮食安全造成实质性影响。但是,燃料乙醇发展有着内在的强大需求,如果不加制约的一味发展,对我国粮食安全影响的负面影响,从长远看难以避免。由于我国对能源需求的不断增加,这对我国耕地保护及粮食安全造成的长远且持续的压力不容忽视。更多还原

【Abstract】 "Hunger breeds discontent,Land is a source of food",Farmland is the carrier of food production and the fundamental guarantee of food security." "The primary task of governing the country is food",this is the ancient experience of running the country and bringing peace.Prior to the major breakthrough in agricultural science and technology,we must have a stable number and quality of arable land for protection,in order to stabilize and increase food production to ensure national food security.On the other hand,Energy security has become an important area of national economic security and an important material foundation of a country’s economic growth and social development.The increasingly tense situation in the world’s energy to make ethanol and other biomass fuels become an important content of the world’s energy policy.In China,it has a striking contradiction between energy supply and demand and the tremendous pressure on energy self-sufficiency and environmental,Diversification of energy structure,including biomass, is a fundamental strategic direction.However,in China,the development of biomass energy caused enormous controversy over the degree of importance between energy security and food security.Food issue affect the long-term stability of the whole country,it has important strategic significance.Food security and energy security is both major survival issues not only for China, but also for the world.Food security and energy security have certain inherent correlation.This relevance was mainly due to the situation of competition for land:Production of biomass energy,particularly energy crops,to take up land resources for food production,especially arable resources.This situation will put part of crop land is converted to energy crop land,as the Finiteness of land resources,such a conversion would affect the food security problem.The reason why this paper raises this issue is due to food security and energy security issues have become the key to affecting China’s economic and social development issues,and between the two issues which have a conjugate areas,namely,it is related to land use(especially agricultural land use).The basic objective of this study is to try to answer the following important theoretical question:(1) in theory,whether the energy security issue will affect food security,how the unity of opposites of relationship between the two issue,whether they were relationship just as "Can not have both fish and bear’s paw".In the case of food security,how much arable resources provide for the development of biomass liquid fuels,or,if we want to ensure energy security,how much biomass fuels shall we need? And how much arable resources will be occupied? And the occupation of arable resources will impact on food security?(2) In the position of agricultural land use,how to find an effective way to resolve or alleviate the two problems caused by the use of agricultural land.Theoretically,Whether to seek a "win-win" mechanism,in order to achieve food security and energy security be achieved simultaneously.(3) Driving mechanism of transformation between Food crops and energy crops,that is What caused food crops convert to energy crops? Simply,it is caused by comparing earnings of farmland.And what else? Such as System of agricultural land,agricultural technology,natural factors and so on.(4) Energy Conversion and energy balance of energy crops.Namely,the production of biomass energy in the whole life cycle, also need to spend a lot of energy,if energy input is greater than energy output,then this transformation will become meaningless.Or,this energy conversion is only to make some people in some areas,some businesses or some countries have made gains,while the overall useless.(5) Under the pattern of global economic integration,Food security and energy security is no longer just a country(or region) of an individual phenomenon,it should be incorporated into a larger international space considerations.Then,in a closed economy and open economy conditions,a country’s biomass energy development will depend on comparative advantage which is depends on its resource endowments.Therefore,we need to be studied utilization of agricultural land under different conditions(closed or open) and blend of food security and energy security.The nature of this thesis located in theoretical research,but it is no shortage of empirical research.For example,the potential estimate about ethanol production on China’s cultivated land resources,the correlation of food production and cultivated area,production cost comparison about Plants can produce ethanol,and so on.This theoretical study is mainly in Chapter 4,Chapter 5,Chapter 6,Chapter 7 and Chapter 8, in which pure theoretical analysis is mainly concentrated on Chapter 6——the relationship between the comparing earnings and the conversion of agricultural land use structure,Chapter 7——under the conditions of closed-open economy,Agricultural land use analysis about food security and energy security,and Chapter 8——agricultural land compensation research based on the cost of food security.This article focuses on Innovations in Chapter 6,Chapter 7 and Chapter 8,which has done a more in-depth theoretical research on economic effect analysis about agricultural land use conversion under the condition of None(any) bound by a static(dynamic) conditions.Attempt to study Compensation for agricultural land under the cost of food security.The three built new research ideas for this paper.Although there are many problems continue to haunt the writer,but we hope to arrive at a preliminary research framework will lay the foundation for follow-up study.In this paper,empirical research on China’s corn-based ethanol production concluded that the current stage of China’s fuel ethanol industry did not affect food security in China,according to our findings,by 2020,even if not to restrictions on the fuel ethanol industry,it still will not substantive affect our food security.However,the development of fuel ethanol has a strong internal demand,if unchecked the blind development,the impact of China’s negative impact on food security in the long run is inevitable.Because China’s increasing demand for energy,which China’s cultivated land protection and food security posed by the long-term and continuous pressure to not be ignored.更多还原