【作者】 宋效峰；

【导师】 杨鲁慧；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 国际政治， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 对单位层面的关注是国际政治学与比较政治学的相通之处——单位既是构成国际体系的基础,也是进行比较的基础。目前大多数国家仍处在现代化过程中,模式的多样化与同质化之争由来已久,但共识的增加也是不争的事实。上世纪六十年代政治发展研究兴起,至冷战后期第三世界国家的政治发展又出现了一些重大变化——例如新兴经济体的崛起、威权政体的民主转型以及全球化的日益突显,国际体系的内在属性也在发生改变,以至于有人质疑传统意义上的第三世界是否还存在。目前,第三波民主化仍在改写着发展中国家的政治图谱,其中东南亚地区具有典型意义——这里的多样性最为明显,也是最有说服力的民主化试验场。在内外压力下,后发国家如何在推进政治民主的同时保持政治稳定,在理论与实践中都尚未完全解决。本文试图把政党制度作为变量,对转型社会中的民主化与政治稳定之间的复杂关系进行剖析。现代化是发展中国家面临的历史任务——即通过现代性的不断积累推动传统社会向现代社会转变,这就使政治稳定这一传统课题被赋予了时代内涵。纵向及横向研究表明,政党制度与政治稳定之间存在着内在联系,其关键在于政党制度是否具备足够的韧性,从而与动态发展的社会生态系统相适应。作为东亚地区的中小国家,马来西亚的典型性首先在于其中等发展水平——作为新兴经济体之一,其社会转型特点突出,现代化使经济、政治与文化等层面的过渡性非常明显。马来西亚的典型性还体现在文化多样性上,历史及地理原因使这里成为世界主要文明交融碰撞的缩影。在马来西亚政治发展过程中,稳定诉求极其强烈——它既反映了对现代化与民族国家建构的双重要求,同时也在很大程度上归因于政治精英的主观建构。典型的多元族群结构使民族国家建构任重而道远,迅速推进的现代化又导致了政治结构与经济社会结构的不适应,以及权力与财富在不同社会集团间的分配失衡。因此有必要通过一定的制度设计来解决政治稳定问题,以确保现代化进程不致中断或逆转。作为政治系统的内生因素,政治文化是现代变迁的重要层面。在这一过程中,各族政治精英及大众之间复杂多面的观念互动,也使政治稳定在某种意义上成为建构的产物。在马来西亚政治话语中,政治稳定无疑是最常用的政治词汇。统治精英试图影响大众的合法性评价,并通过所控制的公共权力机构、主流媒体以及教育机构,持续进行政治整合。在某种意义上,马来西亚是政治稳定保持最好的发展中国家之一,堪称伊斯兰现代主义的典范。一果多因,现代化理论、政体稳定理论以及政治文化理论等,对于马来西亚的政治稳定都有很强的解释力。鉴于族群、阶级等层面的严重社会分化,一党独大制所承载的准威权政体努力促成某种合作主义。早在非殖民化时期,政党制度雏形就在外来因素与本土因素合力作用下奠定,并对马来亚独立进程产生了重大影响,执政党的历史合法性由此发轫。现代化进程启动后,执政党一度在经济领域实行自由放任政策,在政治领域则容许较高竞争性的议会民主。但阶级和族群分化不断加剧,在活跃的政党政治刺激下,社会动员与政治参与很快超出了政治制度的容纳力,进而导致了上世纪六十年代末的严重骚乱。在现代化过程中,东亚威权政体具有工具性和过渡性等特点,这集中体现在维持政治稳定和促进经济增长两个维度上。但其效用性并非永不枯竭,威权体制下的经济绩效、意识形态培育、环境强调、承诺诱惑以及个人魅力等因素都不过是民主的临时替代。尽管上述族群冲突导致马来西亚政治发展出现重大转折,但并不能因此否定民主的普遍价值。民主政治受挫的根本原因是当时较低的经济社会发展水平,稚嫩的制度权威对于政治参与的吸纳力不足,致使竞争性民主与族群主义的矛盾无法调和。以族群为主轴的广泛的执政联盟为政治稳定提供了新的解决方案,具有更强集体行动能力的国民阵线在很大程度上成为巫统的制度工具,但另一方面它也有效地避免了社会集团间的零和或负和博弈。在巫统主导下,执政联盟协商分配权力,各成员党在某种意义上成为利益相关者,精英联盟的扩大与巩固成为政治稳定的结构性因素。巫统坚持发展主义,经济绩效成为其最重要的合法性来源,并实现了从经济增长到政治稳定的功能转换。但受传统因素的影响,庇护现象普遍存在,统治精英们深深卷入经济领域。在执政党主导的现代化进程中,政党竞争受到很大抑制,政治稳定的压制性特征比较突出。其中,族群因素几乎是影响政治稳定的常量——主要执政党把族群性视为自身最基本的合法性,族群关系被置于政策议程的优先位置,这无疑使威权政体在控制族群冲突方面被赋予一定的正当性。但威权主义存在着自身难以克服的悖论——成功的经济发展是一把双刃剑,它在为巫统提供巨大绩效合法性的同时,也孕育着解构其威权统治基础的社会因素。这决定了发展中国家政治发展的非线性特点,但经济现代化必将为政治民主创造更有利的基础性条件。因此,威权主义的衰退是现代化变迁的必然结果,在这一过程中政治稳定日益需要与民主化相结合。政党制度的合法性对于政治稳定意义重大。其中,制度化是获取合法性的重要路径,也是评价发展中国家政治发展的基本尺度。制度化的基础首先是宪政的发展,以及对政党政治的具体规制。与其它发展中国家相比,马来西亚政党制度的制度化水平较高,即使巫统的执政地位也需要诉诸于制度途径。另一方面,其政党制度中仍然存在着一些严重的缺陷,例如与传统性有关的庇护制盛行于体制内。这就有必要引入民主化变量,通过制度化与民主化的耦合,奠定政党制度的合法性基础。在各种政治权威中,执政党权威直接影响政府合法性。按照权威类型的演进路向,政党权威最终应指向形态最优、合法性最强的制度权威,它最能胜任现代化过程中的政治整合。其中,有效性是制度权威的核心要素,也是实现政治稳定的基础条件;如果缺乏有效的制度权威,发展中国家就很容易陷入“失败国家”境地。民主化趋势不可阻挡,目前第三波对马来西亚政党制度的冲击日益显现,政治稳定功能有所下降。马来西亚是典型的韧性威权政体,尽管政治转型压力不断加大,但不太可能发生颠覆性变化。这是因为,马来西亚政治系统的开放性较大,对于社会环境的回应能力仍然较强:其制度条件较有利于渐进民主化,而不利于激进主义的滋生。当前“两线制”雏形进一步显现,执政党的准霸权地位出现动摇,主动改革意愿上升。尤其是族群政治模式日益受到质疑,作为经济现代化的产物,新兴的市民社会正在成为政治发展的有生力量。东亚中产阶级普遍具有保守性和革命性双重特征:作为现代化的受益者,他们不愿看到社会政治秩序沦丧;而另一方面,其改革要求也日趋强烈。作为马来西亚“新政治”的主要推动者,反对党、非政府组织以及独立的新媒体彼此呼应,使反对阵营得到拓展。民主化对于政治稳定具有复杂影响,对于缺乏民主传统的新兴国家而言,渐进的政治转型有利于在较低的社会成本条件下实现政治稳定。在这一过程中,政党制度除了逐渐扩大对政治参与的吸纳外,还应推动国家与社会正向互动关系的形成,从而在新的合法性基础上重构政治稳定。总之,本文立足于现代化进程中的东亚国家,试图对政治稳定作出某种时代诠释,并尽可能地把一些新的影响变量考虑进来。尽管发展中国家与少数后现代国家共处于一个日益相互依赖的国际社会中,但彼此的根本关切却相去甚远。在那些民族国家尚不巩固的政治单位中,国家与社会关系正面临着调整,而全球化以及网络政治等渗透性因素又日益凸显。在众多的危机挑战面前,一套有效的政党制度仍将是后发展国家实现政治整合的基本依托。但它同样需要吸收新兴社会力量,逐渐实现治理模式的转变——即建立政党制度主导、多元主体参与的平等互动的多维治理结构,这种弹性网状结构将更适应政治稳定的时代需要。总之,威权政体的结构性危机具有必然性,未来这些国家的政党制度变迁能否反映社会结构变化,必将对其政治发展与政治稳定产生深远影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Focus on unit-level research in international politics is similar to comparative politics—unit is fundermental to both of them. Most countries are in modernization at present, and the argument on diversification or homogenization of developmental model is long-standing. However, it is indisputable that there is an increasing consensus. Since the study of political develoment rose in 1960s, a series of significant changes took place in the Third World in the final phase of the Cold War, for example, the rise of the NICs, the democratic transition of authoritarian regimes, and the highlighting impact of globalization. The properties of international system changes so greatly that the existence of the Third World is questioned. The third wave of democratization is still rewriting the political map of developing countries currently, among which the Southeast Asia is typical—where the diversity is most obvious, and therefore is the most convincing proving ground for democratization. Under internal and external pressures, how the developing countries maintain political stability in democratization has not been resolved completely in theory or in practice. Party system acting as a variable, this paper tries to analyse the complex relationship between democratization and political development in transforming societies, which gives connotation of the times to the traditional topic of political stability. Longitudinal and horizontal studies show that there exists an intrinsical link between party system and political stability. The key lies in whether the resilience of party system adapts to the dynamically developing socio-ecological systems.As one of small and medium-sized countries in East Asia, the typicality of Malaysia is the medium level of development first of all—this country is regarded as one of the NICs, the feature of social transformation being prominent, modernization making the transitionality of political, economic and cultural dimensions very obvious. Secondly, the typicality of Malaysia can be attributed to its cultural diversity. Historical and geographical reasons make here be an epitome of blend and collision among the world’s major civilizations. During the process of political development, the damand for stability is extremely strong, which is not only the reflection of the urgent need for modernization and nation-state building, but also the result of subjective construction of political elites. The typical multi-ethnic structure makes nation-state building a long way to go, and the rapidly advancing modernization leads to the incompatibility between political structure and economic social structure, as well as the imbalanced distribution of power and wealth among different social groups. It is necessary to solve the problem of political stability by some institutional designs to ensure the process of modernization. As the endogenous factor of political system, the change of political culture is an important aspect of modernization changes. In this process, the complex and multi-faceted concept interaction among ethnic elites as well as the masses makes political stability be a product of construction in a sense. The term of political stability is used most frequently in the political context of Malaysia. The ruling elite are trying to influence mass perceptions of legitimacy, and carrying out the political integration continuously by public power agencies, mainstream media and educational institutions. In some sense, Malaysia is one of the developing countries that maintain political stability the most successfully. This can be owing to a variety of reasons, Modernization Theory, regime stability theory and political culture theory all have strong explanatory power to the the political stability in Malaysia.In view of the ethnic, class and other social differentiation, the quasi-authoritarian regime supported by one-party dominant system contributes to some kind of corporatism. Early in the decolonization period, the rudiment of party system was established by the composition of forces of external and local factors, with a significant impact on the independence of Malaya, thus the historical legitimacy of ruling party originated. After the modernization process was started, laissez-faire economic policy was once implemented by the ruling party. Accordingly, competitive parliamentary democracy was operated. However, class and ethnic differentiations were increasingly intensified. Stimulated by the pluralistic party competition, social mobilization and mass political participation soon went beyond the capacity of the political system, which resulted in the serious political unrest in the late of 1960s. In the modernization process, the East Asian authoritarian regimes are instrumental and transitional, which are embodied in the maintenance of political stability and the promotion of economic growth. However, the effectiveness of these regimes is not inexhaustible. Economic performance, cultivatation of ideology, environment stressed, temptation of commitment as well as personal charisma under the authoritarian regimes is nothing but temporary substitutes to democracy. Although a major turning point occurred after the ethnic riot of 1969 in Malaysia, the universal value of democracy was not negated for this reason. It is mainly the low level of economic and social development that leads to the frustration of democcy, under such conditions political participation not accommodated by the tender institutional authority, and the contradictions between competitive democracy and ethnicism difficult to reconcile for the moment. The ruling coalition based on ethnic groups the most widely provides a new solution for the reconstruction of political stability. As an institutional instrument to maintain the dominant position of UMNO to a large extent, the National Front has stronger capacity for collective action. On the other hand, this coalition also meet the rational needs to avoid zero-sum or negative-sum game.Under the auspices of the UMNO, the ruling coalition distributes power in accordance with the principle of consultation, and the member parties become stakeholders In some sense, the expansion and consolidation of elite catel may be the structural factor of maintaining political stability.UMNO adheres to developmentalism and economic performance becomes the most important source of legitimacy, so economic growth is functionally converted into political stability successfully. However, the phenomena of patronage are widespread affected by the traditional political culture, and the ruling elites are involved in the economic field deeply. In the process of modernization led by the ruling party, party competition is inhibited to a large extent, and the repressiveness of political stability is quite prominent. Meanwhile, ethnic factors is almost the constant that affects political stability—the main ruling parties regard ethnicity as the most basic source of legitimacy, and usually give priority to ethnic relationship in policy agenda, which gives legitimacy certainly to the authoritarian regime in regard to controlling ethnic conflict. However, there is a paradox difficult to be overcome by authoritarian regime itself—the sustained economic development is a double-edged sword, which provides enormous performance legitimacy to UMNO while fostering social forces deconstructive to the base of authoritarian rule in the long run. For this reason the political development of developing countries is not linear, but the ecnomic modernization will create basic conditions for political democratization anyway. Accordingly, the recession of authoritarian is the inevitable result of modernization, meanwhile political stability need to combine with the development of democracy increasingly.The legitimacy of party system is of great significance to political stability. Institutionalization is an important dimension of obtaining legitimacy, and a basic staff gauge to measure the political development of developing countries. The base of institutionalization is the development of constitutionalism, as well as the various regulations for party politics. Compared with the other developing countries, Malaysia has a higher level of institutionalization of party politics, even if UMNO has to interpret its ruling legitimacy by institution. On the other hand, there are some institutional deficiencies detrimental to political stability in Malaysian party politics, for example, the phenomena of patronage associated with traditionality spread in the system. In order to lay a solid foundation for the legitimacy of party system, introduction of the variable of democratization is necessary so that democratization and institutionalization can promote each other. In a variety of political authorities, the authority of ruling party has a direct impact on government legitimacy. In accordance with the evolution law of the types of authority, party authority should be oriented to institutional authority with optimal form and stongest legitimacy ultimately, for the latter is most conducive to carry out political integration. As effectiveness is the core element of institutional authority, and also the basis for the achievement of political stability, developing countries are more likely to fall into the the situation of "failed states" without an effective institutional authority.Democratization is an irresistible historical trend, and the impact of the third wave on Malaysian party system becomes more and more apparent, resulting in the weakening of the system function of political stability. Malaysia can be classified as a typical durable authoritarian regime—although the pressure of political transformation is increasing, the disruptive changes are unlikely to occur. This is because Malaysian political system has greater openness, and still has a stronger response capability to social changes. Institutional environment in Malaysia is more favorable to the gradual democratization, but not the breeding grounds for radicalism. The embryonic form of two-front system shows further and the quasi-hegemonic position of ruling party is shaken currently, so its willingness to initiate reform is increasing. Especially the ethnic political model is being questioned increasingly; as the product of economic modernization, the emerging civil society will be a dynamic force for political development of Malaysia. Generally the middle class in East Asia have dual characteristics of conservative and revolutionary: as the beneficiaries of modernization, they do not want to see social and political disorder; on the other hand, their demands for reform are increasingly strong. As the main driving force of Malaysia’s new politics, the opposition political parties, non-governmental organizations and independent new media echo each other, thus the connotation of the opposition has been expanded. Since democratization has complex impacts on political stability, the gradual political transition is the most conducive to achieve political stability at lower social cost. In this process, the party system should absorb political participation more spreadly, and promote the establishment of positive interactionship between state and society, so that political stability can be reconstructed on the basis of new legitimacy.In conclusion, based on the East Asian countries which are in the process of modernization, this paper tries to interprete political stability in line with the times, taking the new variables into account as much as possible. Despite the vast number of developing countries and the small number of post-modern countres are in the same international community, their fundamental concerns are quite different from each other. In the former political units, the nation-state needs to be consolidated, while the relationship between state and society is undergoing profound changes, and the permeability factors of globalization and cyber politics are merging. Developing Countries usually have to withstand more challenges from crisis, so an effective party system will be a basic approach to social and political integration. However, the system needs to absorb the newly emerging social forces increasingly, so that gradual change of governance model can be achieved. The future model is a multi-dimensional governance structure which is still dominated by party system, but participated jointly by multi-actors. This model will give more emphasis to equal interaction, and its flexible network structure adapts better to the needs of political stability. Structural crisis of authoritarian regime is inevitable, whether the change of party system can reflect the changes in social structure will have a far-reaching impact on the political development and stability of these countries.更多还原