【作者】 胡予红；

【导师】 路迈西；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学（北京） ， 环境科学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 本论文通过分析我国经济社会发展与煤炭消费的历史、趋势与现状,选取影响煤炭消费的经济社会指标体系,定性分析了各指标对煤炭消费的影响,利用相关系数和灰色关联度分析找出了影响煤炭消费的主要因素,利用计量经济学的协整分析与格兰杰检验等方法研究煤炭消费与经济社会的定量关系。在分析煤炭消费系统的特殊性和预测理论基础上,选择向量误差修正模型(VEC模型)和时间序列(ARIMA模型)作为单项预测模型进行权重组合构建煤炭消费的多元回归组合预测模型,结合煤炭消费行业的发展趋势对我国未来中长期煤炭消费量进行了预测。通过分析世界主要国家CO2的排放趋、规律及主要影响因素,利用Kaya模型分析影响我国CO2排放量的主要因素,并总结煤炭生产消费与CO2、CH4排放的关系,对其未来的排放量进行预测。最后分析了我国温室气体排放与气候变化面临的问题与机遇,研究了减少煤炭的开发利用温室气体排放的技术途径,并从如何降低能耗、减少CO2、CH4排放等方面提出适用的对策和政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The thesis analyzes the history, trend and current situation of the social and economic development and coal consumption in China, makes a qualitative analysis about how all the parameters influence coal consumption through the selected social and economic parameter system influencing coal consumption, summarizes main factors that influence coal consumption by means of Correlation Analysis and Grey Relation Analysis, and explores the quantitative relation between coal consumption and social and economic development through Co-integration Analysis and Granger Test in econometrics. After analyzing the distinctiveness of coal consumption system and based upon the prediction theory, the paper takes Vector Error Correction Model (VEC) and Time Sequence (ARIMA) as the single prediction model to make weight combination and establish the prediction model of multiple regression combination, so that the following five-year coal consumption is predicted combined with the development trend of coal consumption industry in China.Furthermore, the main influencing factors for CO2 emission volume are summarized through Kaya Model and the analysis of CO2 emission condition, trend and its influencing factors across global main countries; the relation between coal production and consumption and CO2 and CH4 emission is analyzed, and the future CO2 and CH4 emission volume is estimated as well. Finally, the paper summarizes problems and challenges of greenhouse gas emission and climate change are faced with, and counter measures and policy suggestions are proposed on how to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission in the process of coal exploration and utilization.更多还原