【作者】 侯刚；

【导师】 杨改河；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 生态学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 可再生能源为解决当今世界所面临的能源危机和环境问题提供了契机,生物质能由于其储量丰富、廉价易得且便于利用而受到了广泛的关注。然而作为一个产业,在生物质能的开发利用过程中,风险的存在不可避免。本研究在综合分析相关风险研究的基础上,结合对我国生物质能潜力的定量评估,辨析了生物质能开发利用过程中的各种风险因素,建立了生物质能风险评估与管理基本理论框架,分别对我国生物质能的宏观区域风险和微观项目风险进行了评估,取得了如下研究成果:1.从理论上构建了我国生物质能风险识别、评估与管理基本理论框架。结合生物质能的特点和风险研究基本理论,对生物质能风险的概念和特征进行了界定和分析,运用流程图法和专家咨询法从产业发展内部因素和外部环境两个方面对生物质能风险进行了综合分析,建立了包括资源供给风险、技术体系风险、市场风险、政策法规风险和自然环境风险等5个风险层面共计14个评估指标的生物质能风险评估指标体系;根据生物质能不同风险因素的风险特征,选择了多指标综合评估法、专家评分法、时空类比法、抽样调查法等方法作为衡量我国生物质能风险的评估方法;对生物质能风险管理所涉及的概念和实施步骤等基本问题进行了较为全面的诠释和探讨,从而构建了完整的生物质能风险识别、评估和管理理论体系。2.从宏观视角定量评估了我国生物质能发展潜力及其面临的区域风险。针对我国生物质能总量丰富,省际差异较大的现状,基于生物质能主要风险特征表现为过程风险、风险评估应以资源潜力评估为基础、未来面临更多不确定性等三个基本假设,建立了我国生物质能宏观区域风险识别与评估模型,分别以农村户用沼气和秸秆发电作为生物质能分散性和规模化利用的代表,对我国生物质能产业发展的区域风险进行了评估。认为我国开发利用生物质能区域风险较高的是农业生产水平落后、经济欠发达的西北农牧区如青海、西藏、甘肃等,以及经济发达程度较高、耕地资源欠缺区域如北京、上海、天津等,区域风险较低的主要是原料供应充足、社会经济发展水平一般的传统农业区如河南、山东、四川、河北、湖南、广西、湖北等。该结果也说明只有从自身资源优势出发,结合区域的社会经济状况选择合适的生物质能利用形式,才能有效地保证和促进区域生物质能产业的发展。3.从具体项目运作对我国生物质能项目风险进行了分析和评估。在分析一般项目风险评估理论的基础上,结合生物质能项目的特殊性,对我国生物质能项目规划实施过程中的风险进行了剖析。以河南省惠民禽业有限公司利用亚行贷款实施农村能源生态建设项目为实证研究,采用SWOT方法对其优势、劣势、机会和威胁进行了分析,在此基础上,从内部因素和外部环境两个层面分别选择了原料供应风险、建设风险、技术风险、运行风险、人员风险和商业风险、法律政策风险、自然灾害风险、CDM风险等九个风险评估指标,采用专家评分法对该项目进行了风险评估,结果显示该项目综合风险评分为43.4分,按照0-20分为低风险,20-40分为较低风险,40-60分为一般风险,60-80分为较高风险,80-100分为高风险的评分标准来看,该项目风险水平一般,接近于较低。评估结果说明在生物质能项目的规划和实施过程中存在一定程度的风险,且风险类型多样,对项目的影响程度不一,在项目的具体操作中必须对这些风险有充足的认识,提前预防,积极避免,以保证项目的顺利投产和持续发展。4.从宏观和微观综合管理视角,提出了我国生物质能风险管理策略。在简要介绍风险管理的概念、发展历程、一般程序以及风险防范一般手段的基础上,提出了符合我国国情的生物质能产业发展风险防范措施,生物质能项目风险的回避、控制、转移、自留和后备措施以及生物质能CDM项目的风险分摊和转移机制,建议根据不同的风险类型,单独或交叉采用不同的风险管理与防范手段,有效降低风险发生的概率和影响程度,保证和促进我国生物质能产业的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays the renewable energy has already become the research focus of many countries in consideration of the their energy security and sustainable development, especially the biomass energy, existed in the form of agricultural, forestry, industrial and municipal waste, biomass energy has so much advantages such as rich reserve, easy storage and high substitutability. As an industry, the existence of certain kinds of risk is unavoidable during the exploitation and utilization of biomass energy, so based on the comprehensive analysis of risk evaluation and mmanagement, this article calculated the amount of biomass energy resources, described various risk factors of biomass energy utilization, and evaluated the regional risk and project risk of biomass energy utilization in China through the establishment of risk evaluation and management model. The main conclusions are as follows:1. Started with the classification of biomass energy and the basic theory of risk research, the conception and characteristics of biomass energy risk were cleared, and by using the method of flow chart and experts consultation, an index system of five risk levels such as resource supply, market, technology system, supporting policy and natural environment including 14 indexes was established; according to the characteristics of different risk factors, some scientific methods such as comprehensive evaluation, experts evaluation, temporal analogy and sampling survey were chosen as the evaluation methods of biomass energy in China; at last, a risk identification, evaluation and management system was established by the description and discussion of some basic questions such as concept and implementation steps of risk management.2. According to the current situation of abundance and unbalanced distribution of biomass energy, the regional risk of biomass energy utilization in China was evaluated taking rural household biogas and cropstrw power generation as examples, the results indicated that the traditional agricultural region such as Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Hebei, Hunan, Guangxi and Hubei has a comparatively low risk due to abundant resource supply and low labour cost, while the regional risk of biomass energy utilization in northwest and east part of China such as Qinghai, Tibet, Gansu, Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai are comparatively high, of which the main reason is lacking of resource supply. So it is strongly recommended that paying great importance to the situation of resource supply, social and economic situation when choosinig developing patterns of biomass energy industry in a region.3. After the analysis of project risk evaluation, the rural energy project of Huimin Poultry Limited Company in Henan province was taken as an example to research the risk of biomass energy project. First of all, the SWOT method was adopted to analyze the strength, weakness, opportunity and threat of the project, then the risk of this project was evaluation from 9 risk factors including resource supply, construction, technology, operation, personnel, market, natural disaster, policy and law and CDM risk by the using of experts evaluation method. The results indicated that the risk level of this project is normal with a risk score of 43.3, close to comparatively low. Also the result suggested that giving full recognization and taking avoiding measures positively during the establishment and implementation of a biomass energy project since there existed various kinds of risks.4. Through the brief introduction of conception, development history, general procedure and prevention approach of risk management, the risk prevention approaches of developing China’s biomass energy industry, the risk management of avoidance, control, transfer and self-retention of biomass energy project were provided as well as the risk sharing mechanism of biomass energy CDM project on the purpose of clearing the risk responsibility for both CERs providers and purchasers. Also it is recommended that taking those measures singly or in reasonable collocation according to practical situation in order to reduce the risk probability and damage, which at last would promote the sustainable development of biomass energy industry in China.更多还原