【作者】 黄海燕；

【导师】 张林；

【作者基本信息】 上海体育学院 ， 体育人文社会学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 体育赛事综合影响事前评估研究是一个新兴的领域,目前还没有完整的理论架构和体系,为了构建较为科学、完整的体育赛事综合影响事前评估理论与方法体系,本研究以可持续发展理论指导下的三重底线评估框架为基础,综合运用理论研究与实证分析相结合、抽象与具体分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合、微观分析与宏观分析相结合的方法,通过对国外227篇学术文献和60篇具体赛事评估报告的内容分析,以及对国内14位体育赛事理论和实务领域专家两个轮次的咨询,对体育赛事综合影响事前评估的问题进行了全面、系统的探讨。在此基础上,通过对2009年上海ATP1000大师赛综合影响事前评估的实证分析,验证了本文所构建的体育赛事综合影响事前评估和方法应用的可行性。主要研究结论如下:第一,体育赛事是指以体育竞技为主题的、一次性或不经常发生的且具有一定期限的活动。它起源于祭祀活动、萌芽于体育游戏,并从运动竞赛的传统表现形式发展成为现代的一种提供竞赛产品和相关服务产品的特殊事件。体育赛事具有聚集性、体验性、外部性和综合性等特征,而且,它还是一个较为复杂和系统的项目,牵涉的利益相关主体较多,故对举办地经济、社会和环境领域的影响较为复杂。运用基于可持续发展理论指导下的三重底线评估框架能够对体育赛事给举办地带来的各种影响进行较为全面的评估。第二,当前国外对体育赛事综合影响的理论研究和实际评估中,更加关注于体育赛事的经济影响领域,其次是体育赛事的社会影响方面,而对体育赛事的环境影响领域关注程度最小。第三,体育赛事综合影响框架体系共包括29个体育赛事的综合影响指标,其中二级指标16个,三级指标13个。在16个二级指标中,体育赛事经济影响方面的指标10个;社会影响指标4个,环境影响指标2个。第四,体育赛事综合影响事前评估指标体系共包括3个一级指标(经济影响、社会影响、环境影响);13个二级指标(给举办地带来的新的消费、对宏观经济指标的积极影响、对赛事相关产业的拉动、提升城市知名度和城市形象、赛事运作获得会计收益、赛事运作的经济风险、居民的自豪感、提高居民生活质量、扰乱举办地居民的正常生活、安全隐患及恐怖主义、改善环境、环境污染与破坏和资源消耗)和29个三级指标(外来游客的消费额、赛事组织在本地的支出额、对举办地GDP的贡献率、政府税收收入增加量、新增就业岗位数、居民收入增加额、对赛事相关产业GDP的贡献率、参与赛事的国家数、参与报道的媒体数量、参与报道的媒体级别、赛事收入与成本的差额、政府财政支出额、居民自豪感的价值量、居民获得休闲机会的概率、居民增强体育健身意识的概率、居民学习新事物新技能机会的概率、居民直接参与赛事及相关活动的概率、交通堵塞及拥挤成本、噪音污染损害的价值量、犯罪及破坏公物行为、消费指数的上升程度、安全隐患及恐怖主义事件发生的概率、对居民进行环保宣传的概率、进行城市环境治理的概率、破坏自然环境的面积、产生的垃圾量、二氧化碳的排放量、水资源消耗量和能源消耗量)。第五,体育赛事综合影响事前评估指标体系中三个一级指标的的权重系数基本相似,其中社会影响的权重系数最高(0.3565),经济影响次之(0.3513),环境影响的权重系数最低(0.2922)。这反映出在当前我国的体育赛事综合影响事前评估中,需要对影响体育赛事社会影响的因素及其结果进行充分重视。从二级指标的权重看,在实际的体育赛事综合影响事前评估中,经济影响方面,要重视影响“提升城市形象和知名度”和“对赛事相关产业的拉动”等方面的因素及其评估结果;社会影响方面,要重视体育赛事对举办地社会带来的负面影响;环境影响方面,要更加关注体育赛事举办对改善举办地城市环境的作用。第六,模糊综合评判法是适合体育赛事综合影响事前评估的一种有效方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Pre-event evaluation of the impact of sport events (PEISE) is a new and immature field in the world at present.In order to construct a theoretical system in this area, this paper relies on TBL (Tripple Bottom Line) evaluation framwork under the guidance of the sustainable development theory. Using the methods of combination of theory research and empirical analysis, abstract and concrete analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper completely and systematically discusses the subject of PEISE through analysis of 227 pieces of academic literatures and 60 concrete tournaments assessment report abroad, and use the Delphi Technique to consultate of 14 domestic experts in theoretical research and practical operation of sport events. On this basis, through empirical analysis of evaluation of the impact of Masters 1000 in Shanghai, this paper has verified the feasibility of the system in terms of PEISE.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly, sport events refers to the one-time or non-recurring activities in the theme of sports competition, which continuing a certain period of time. It originated in religious activities, budded in sports games, and developed from traditional form of sports competition into a modern special events manifesting provision with competition products and related services. Sport events retains the gathered, experimental, external and integrated characteristics. Furthermore, it is also a more complicated and systematic project and involved in a great many of stakeholders, which result in relatively complicated impact on the host area in the economic, social and environmental fields. Application of TBL relied on the sustainable development theory is able to have more comprehensive assessment of a variety of effects which sport events bring.Secondly, the aboard theoretical research and realistic assessment on the impact of sport events attach great importance to the economic impact, followed by social impact. Environmental impact is of the least concern.Thirdly, the framework system of the impact of sport events contains 29 indexes, including 16 secondary indexes, 13 tertiary indexes. The secondary indexes include 10 economic indexes, 4 social indexes and 2 environmental indexes.Fourth, the framework of PEISE contains 3 first-class indexes (economic indexes, social indexes and environmental indexes) , 13 secondary indexes(indexes of simulating new consumption, positive influences on macroeconomic index, driving related industries, enhancing city image, accounting income of events operation, economic risk of operation, civic pride, advancing resident’s life quality, interference with resident’s common life, security and terrorism, improving environment, environment contamination and resources consumption.) and 29 tertiary indexes (indexes of foreign tourists consumption, contribution to GDP, increase of government tax, increase of employment, increase of resident’s income, contribution to related industries GDP, numbers of participating nations, numbers and ranks of participating media, margin of profit, fiscal expenditure, value of residents’pride, probability of resident’s leisure opportunity, probability of enhancing exercise awareness, probability of study new things, probability of residents participating sports events, cost of traffic jam, value of noise contamination, crime and destruction of public property, increase of consumption index, probability of security risk and terrorism, probability of propaganda on environment protection, probability of city environment improvement, damage area of destructed environment, the amount of generating waste, emission of CO2 ,consumption of water and energy.).Fifth, the weight coefficients of the three first-class indexes of the impact framework system of sport events are similar, with the largest weight coefficient of social impact (0.3565), being followed by weight coefficient of economic impact (0.3513) and the smallest weight coefficient is the environmental impact (0.2922). This reflects that it should attach great importance to the factors and results of social impact in the domestic realistic assessment of the impact of sport events. With regard to the weight of the secondary indexes, it should attach great importance to the factors and results of enhancing city image and driving related industries of sport events in the assessment of the impact of sport events in the field of economic impact; in the field of social impact, we should pay more attention to the negative impact; in the field of environmental impact, improving the environment of the host city need to be paid more attention.Sixth, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is an effective method of evaluation of pre-event evaluation of the impact of sport events.更多还原