【作者】 范宏；

【导师】 程浩忠；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 本文从传统输电网规划到市场环境下的输电网规划,利用二层规划方法建立了多种输电网规划的二层规划模型,模型从简单到复杂,从确定性规划到不确定性规划,逐步深入。本论文的主要成果如下:1)提出了考虑经济性及可靠性的输电网规划确定性二层规划模型,该模型上层目标为输电网投资成本最小化,下层目标为输电网在正常运行和N-1运行下的切负荷量最小化,寻求经济性好可靠性高的最优输电网规划方案。此外,在上述模型基础上,下层规划考虑系统N-2运行下的过负荷量最小,寻求经济性好可靠性更高的最优输电网规划方案。2)提出了计及输电利润的动态输电网规划确定性二层规划模型,在双拍卖联营体市场模式下,寻求高输电利润的输电网规划方案。该模型上层规划从输电网长期规划进行投资决策,以规划期内的输电利润最大化为目标,下层规划从输电网短期市场运行进行输电定价,建立了基于社会成本最小化的短期边际成本定价模型。3)提出了计及成本的输电网规划期望值二层规划模型,该模型采用期望值目标和期望值约束描述待建发电厂和未来负荷变化的不确定性带来的风险,寻求投资小、运行经济、有高适应性的输电网规划方案。该模型分输电网投资决策和电力生产优化决策两部分,上层目标为年投资生产运行成本最小化,下层目标为电力生产运行成本期望值最小化,下层约束为系统正常运行约束和N-1运行约束及N-1运行下系统切负荷量期望值约束。4)提出了计及市场利益的发输电联合规划多目标机会约束二层规划模型,该模型协调了电源规划和输电网规划的矛盾,以社会利益最大化为基础,考虑发电公司和输电网公司的利益均衡。该模型上层目标为发电机会指标乐观值、输电机会指标乐观值、社会机会指标乐观值的最大化,下层目标为社会机会指标乐观值的最大化,寻求在不确定环境下,兼顾不同市场利益的最优发电厂建设方案和输电网规划方案。5)提出了考虑回报率最大化的输电网规划相关机会二层规划模型,寻求具有高回报率且实现概率大的输电网规划方案。该模型的上层目标为输电投资回报率大于某一实现水平的实现概率最大化,下层规划有两个子规划问题,一为系统正常运行下的社会利益最大化模型,二为系统N-1运行时的系统切负荷量小于给定值的实现概率最大化模型。本文以18节点和77节点系统为算例进行验证,利用Monte-Carlo法模拟不确定性参数,采用改进小生境遗传算法和原始-对偶内点法相结合的混合算法对模型进行求解,并对求解结果进行比较、分析,验证了所提模型和方法的正确性和有效性。总之,基于二层规划方法的输电网规划模型与求解方法为解决市场环境下的输电网规划问题开创了新思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the traditional transmission network expansion planning (TNEP) to the market-based TNEP, the bi-level programming is utilized to build several bi-level programming models for TNEP in this paper. The models are deepened from simple to complicated and from certain programming to uncertain programming. The innovations of this dissertation are as follows:1) A traditional TNEP model considering economy and reliability based on certain bi-level programming is presented, the upper level program objective of the model is transmission investment cost minimization,the lower level program objective is load curtailments minimization when transmission system works in normal way and N-1 operation, which searchs economical and highly reliable optimal transmission planning scheme. Furthermore, minimum system overload under N-2 operation is considered in lower level program based on the above model to search economical and more reliable optimal transmission planning scheme.2) A dynamic TNEP model considering transmission profit based on certain bi-level programming is presented to search optimal transmission planning scheme with high transmission profit in double bidding based pool market style. The upper level program of the model is to make investment strategy from long-term planning, its objective is transmission profit maximization in planning stages. The lower level program is to make transmission price from short-term market operation, which establishes marginal cost price model based on social cost minimization.3) A TNEP model considering cost based on expected value bi-level programming is presented, the model uses expected value objective and expected value constraints to describe the risk from generators candidate and future load changes uncertainty, which searchs optimal transmission planning scheme with low investment cost and low operation cost and high flexibility. The model has two parts that are transmission network investment decision and power production optimal decision, the upper level program objective is the investment production and operation cost minimization,, the lower level program objective is the expected value of power production operation cost minimization, the lower level program constraints are system normal operation constraints and N-1 operation constraints and expected value constraint of system load curtailment under N-1 operation.4) A generation and transmission coordination planning model considering market benefits based on multi-objective chance constrained bi-level programming is presented, which harmonizes the conflict between generation planning and transmission planning and considers the equilibrium of profit between power generation company and power transmission company based on social welfare maximization. The upper level program objective of the model is maximization among generation chance index optimistic value and transmission chance index optimistic value and society chance index optimistic value, the lower level program objective is society chance index optimistic value maximization, which searchs optimal location of power plants and transmission planning scheme considering different market benefits in uncertain environment.5) A TNEP model considering return rate maximization based on dependent chance bi-level programming is presented to search optimal transmission planning scheme with high return rate and big realized probability. The upper level program objective of the model is realized probability maximization which transmission investment return rate is bigger than one realized level,the lower level program has two problems, the one is that the maximum social profit model when system works in normal way, the second is that realized probability maximization model which system load curtailment is less than a given value under N-1 operation.The 18-bus system and the 77-bus system are used to verify the proposed model in the paper, Monte-Carlo method is adopted to simulate the uncertain parameters, a hybrid algorithm integrated improved niche genetic algorithm and prime-dual interior point method is used to solve the proposed models, comparison and analysis of the results under several models are verified that the proposed models and methods are right and effective. Anyway, TNEP models based on the bi-level programming and methods give a new idea for TNEP problem in electricity market environment.更多还原