【作者】 张蓼红；

【导师】 于洪彦；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 企业管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 如何扩大内需一直是我国学术界研究的重点和难点问题,很多学者都将内需不足的原因指向预防性储蓄动机,认为正是这种动机抑制了消费。但是,根据预防性储蓄理论,储蓄与消费会在某个关键点上发生转换。为了能够赢得更多消费者,我们必须深入研究预防性储蓄动机下消费者的购买行为特点,这样才能够为企业提供更有针对性、更有价值的营销建议,从而帮助企业走出困境。目前针对预防性储蓄动机的研究基本上是遵循了经济学的传统范式,只注重数理推演以及对数理模型的实证检验,忽略了心理研究,没有给出产生预防性储蓄动机的原因和影响因素。而管理学以及市场营销理论虽然重视了购买行为研究,但是缺乏从预防性储蓄动机角度的研究,出现了比较明显的研究空白。此外,虽然很多学者将预防性储蓄动机归因于医疗支出、教育支出、就业压力、物价波动等方面的不可预知因素所带来的不确定性,但是目前尚缺少对这些不可预知因素与不确定性之间相关性程度的研究。本研究试图从以下两方面对现有研究中的不足给予补充:第一是从心理和行为角度探究预防性储蓄动机的形成过程和影响因素;第二是解释预防性储蓄动机影响消费者购买行为的过程和程度。通过实证检验本研究发现:第一、医疗支出、教育支出、就业压力、以及物价波动方面的不可预知因素对不确定性程度具有显著影响,其中影响最大的是就业压力,最小的是教育支出。第二、不确定性对预防性储蓄动机具有显著影响。第三、预防性储蓄动机对价格敏感度和品牌偏好无显著影响,而对购买频率的影响虽然通过显著性检验,但是并不是非常显著。第四、在所有调节变量中只有受教育程度对不确定性与预防性储蓄动机之间的关系具有显著负向调节作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Insufficient domestic demand has been the major problem in China’s economic performance. After the recent financial crisis occurred, it has become most obvious that China should solve this problem immediately. Even though scholars and government agencies have given priority to reducing residential deposits and stimulate consumption, after 10 years’efforts, domestic demand is still insufficient in reality and still a serious problem. It’s never been solved. Why? And where are the solutions?This author believes that the fundamental reason lies in the facts that economic studies run parallel with those done in subjects such as management, psychology, and sociology and that scholars pay attention only to high research quality, technical sophistication, and theoretical edges leaving the perspective of solving realistic problem at nowhere. Therefore, errors come out, namely, data issues, methodology and theoretical framework being poorly targeted, results and policy advice being not coherent, taking broadly as goals and means reducing residential deposits, neglecting business’responding strategies.This paper puts forward some ways to correct the errors, include taking precautionary motives as the core while incorporating the unique methods and perspectives adopted typically by management, psychology, and sociology studies, focusing on the study on purchasing behavior, and using micro level survey data.Based on the above analysis, this author developed a set of scales and then sent out questionnaires to 450 parents of college students. 243 out of this survey are the valid samples that used for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The analyses depict the features of contemporary Chinese consumers and examine the micro foundations of precautionary saving motives. The application of statistical methods such as cluster analysis, factor analysis, and regressions shows not only the degree of the motives as well as the distribution of such motives among consumers, but also to what extent they are influenced by culture and values, education, family size, and life style. Moreover, this paper also studies, with great attention, the impact of such motives on brand preference, price sensitivity, and product involvement of consumers using regressions. Results of above analyses will help understand purchasing behavior under precautionary motives, and gain better understanding of the sources of insufficient domestic demand, and how Chinese business should react facing the consumers whose behavior is dominated by the motives.Conclusions and findings include, firstly, precautionary saving motives have significant effect on consumer behavior only in the context of brand preference, not for price preference neither buying frequency; secondly, culture and values, family size, and life styles affect precautionary saving motives only to a minor degree, and uncertainties in medical cares and education costs are the major components for precautionary motives, and thirdly, facing the consumers whose behavior is dominated by the motives, Chinese businesses should improve their credibility, reputation of product quality, and construct their brands with persistent efforts.Some innovative points in the paper are as follows, 1. It studies Chinese consumer’s purchasing behavior from the perspective of precautionary saving motives; 2. It integrates methodology adopted in the studies of management, psychology, and sociology with that in economic studies; 3. It develops independently a set of scales suitable for studying purchasing behavior under precautionary saving motives.Limitations are, 1. The sample size is not large enough to discover the precise behavior under precautionary motives. 2. The quality of the questionnaire needs to be improved for further studies. 3. Some analysis requires more sophisticated psychological backgrounds.Directions for future studies include, 1.Discover the linkages between nationality and culture backgrounds and implication of current literature on consumption values. 2. Increase the sample size. 3. Improve the quality of the questionnaire. 4.More work needs to be done in understanding the mechnism of purchasing behavor.更多还原