【作者】 杨光；

【导师】 田金信；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 近年来国家提出了建设社会主义新农村的发展战略。新农村建设离不开基础设施建设,而农村公路是基础设施建设的重要组成部分,是促进沿线区域经济增长、加快城镇化进程的重要措施和基本保障。但由于农村公路建设欠账较多、农村公路对社会经济影响问题一直没有被纳入研究重点等历史原因,农村公路建设对沿线区域发展的影响究竟有多大,一直没有一个令人信服的评价理论和评价方法。论文针对农村公路对沿线区域发展的影响问题开展了深入的研究工作,旨在建立一套全面适用的农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的评价指标体系,并提出切合实际的综合评价方法,从而为评价农村公路建设对沿线区域发展的影响提供依据,也为今后的农村公路网规划及农村公路建设提供借鉴和参考。论文首先界定了农村公路的内涵,即应包括县道、乡道、部分专用道路及村与村之间的道路,并总结了我国农村公路的发展历程。在此基础上,分析了农村公路的技术经济特点、交通供需特性、路网规划特性、建设与管理特性等,阐述了新时期我国农村公路建设面临的主要问题和新机遇,明确了新形势下区域发展对农村公路建设的要求。然后,重点开展了农村公路建设对沿线区域经济发展、社会进步、农民生活质量提高等影响的研究。在此基础上,综合考虑全面建设小康社会指标体系、经济社会和谐发展指标体系、国民经济和社会发展效益指标体系等,提出了描述农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的初始评价指标集合,分析了评价指标间的相关性。为了能获得一组为数较少且能反映所有初始指标整体信息的指标或其组合形式,探讨了评价指标选择方法,并最终基于因子分析法构建了由9个指标组成的农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的综合评价指标体系。其次,分析评价了现有综合评价模型的优缺点及适用条件,提出了农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响评价模型的要求及综合评价原则。在此基础上,提出了层次分析与模糊统计相结合的沿线区域发展综合评价方法,并基于专家调查和模糊统计原理确定了权值系数及各评价指标的隶属函数。建立了基于BP神经网络的农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的综合评价模型,分析了模型的结构、算法和实现过程,并应用黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市富裕县、泰来县两个典型农业县的公路建设、社会经济发展数据,标定了神经网络模型的权值矩阵和偏置向量。针对现有模型单一目标产生的局限性,改进了可用于经济评价的多目标产出生产函数模型,用以评价农村公路建设对沿线区域经济发展的影响。最后,以黑龙江省齐齐哈尔地区的富裕县、泰来县、克东县、讷河县、拜泉县、依安县、甘南县统计数据为基础,进行了实证分析。应用层次分析与模糊统计相结合的综合评价模型,确定了上述各县农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的评价等级;应用已标定的BP神经网络,确定了农村公路建设对沿线区域发展贡献的量化结果;应用改进的多目标产出生产函数模型,定量分析了农村公路建设对齐齐哈尔地区经济增长的贡献。本文在借鉴前人研究成果的基础上,以系统思想为指导,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合、理论研究与实证研究相结合的方法,对黑龙江省齐齐哈尔地区农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响问题开展了研究工作。这是农村公路建设对区域发展的直观反映,也是农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响效果的客观表达,它对农村公路的建设工作将起到积极的引导作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recently years, our country put forward the development strategy to building the new socialist countryside. The new rural construction can not be separated from rural infrastructure construction, then rural highway construction is an important component of the infrastructure construction, as well as the important measures and basic security to promote rural economic growth and accelerate the urbanization of countryside. However, there is not a believable evaluation theory or method till now because of the reasons such as many rural highway construction debts in history, not paying enough attention to the research of rural highway construction’s impact on socio-economic development,etc.This paper focused on the impacts of rural highway construction on local development, aimed to establish a comprehensive index system which fit for the evaluation of the impact, and put forward a practicable evaluation method. It’s hoped that the paper can provide a good reference to the impact evaluation of the rural highway construction on local development, rural highway network planning and construction.Firstly, the paper defined the rural highway, which should include county highway, town highway and highways among villages. Based on this, the paper analized the features on the aspects of technique, economic, traffic supply and demand, highway network planning, construction, management, the main problems and opportunities of rural highway construction in new period were described, and the requirements of local development to rural highway construction were puted out.Secondly, the paper analized detailedly the impact of rural construction on local economic development, local social development, local life quality and local sustainable development. Considering the index system of comprehensively building well-off society, economic society development, national economy and social effect, the initial evaluation index system was established, and the correlation of evaluation index was analyzed. To get a index system with indexes as few as possible and with better representivity of the whole information of initial indexes, this paper did some researches on the selection methods of evaluation index, and finally established a index system with 9 indexes based on the factor analysis.Thirdly, the advantages, disadvantages and applicable conditions of existing comprehensive evaluation model were analyzed and evaluated, and the requests and comprehensive evaluation principles of the impact evaluation model on the rural local development from rural highway construction were proposed. So the comprehensive evaluation methods on the rural local development based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy statistics are proposed. And according to the principles of the expert investigation and fuzzy statistics, the weight coefficient and membership function of the evaluation indexes were confirmed. The comprehensive evaluation model of the rural local development from rural highway construction based on the BP neural network was proposed, and the framework, arithmetic and realization process of model was analyzed. The weight matrixes and bias vectors of neural network model were calibrated based on the data of road construction and socioeconomic development of Fuyu county and Tailai county in Qiqihar city. Based on the limitation of single target in the exciting model, the production function model of multi-objective which was used in the economic evaluation was improved to evaluate the impact on the rural local economic development from rural highway construction.Lastly, the statistical data of Fuyu county, Tailai county, Kedong county, Nehe county, Baiquan county, Yi’an county and Gannan county were used for empirical analysis. Firstly, the comprehensive evaluation model based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy statistics was applied to ensure evaluation grades on the rural local developing import from rural highway construction of the above counties. Secondly, the calibrated BP neural network was applied to ensure the quantized result of local development contribution from rural highway construction. Lastly, the improved production function model of multi-objective was applied to quantitatively analyze the contribution of Qiqihar economical development from the rural highway construction.In the course of the study, we learn from previous research results, take the mind of system as guidance, and make use of the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the integration of standard theory and empirical research on the integration, and carry out research work, such as rural highway construction in Qiqihar of Heilongjiang impact on regional development. This paper against the topic of the features of rural highway construction in new area, carry out the qualitative and quantitative analysis on rural highway construction impact on regional development, which will play a positive guiding role in the establishment of highway network.更多还原