【作者】 胥良；

【导师】 黄泽民；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 世界经济， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 本文在货币国际化含义、途径、条件、货币国际化度量、货币国际化成本与收益等理论分析的基础上,对于美元、欧元、日元的国际化进程和新元不国际化问题进行了实证研究,并对这些货币国际化的经验教训进行总结,在理论分析和国别经验的铺垫后,本文对于人民币国际化的现状、人民币国际化的必要性及紧迫性,人民币国际化的战略,人民币国际化的路径安排及政策措施,人民币国际化的风险及其防范措施等进行了一一分析研究。本文的研究结论是:1、做为一个政治经济大国,人民币国际化是必要的和紧迫的;2、人民币国际化已具备一定的条件,目前的时机是恰当的;3、中国政府在人民币国际化进程中的作用至关重要,政府需要采取措施推动人民币国际化进程,人民币的跨境贸易结算、对外投资和国际借贷可以同步进行;4、在通过多种渠道输出人民币的同时,必须有序开放国内金融市场,建立境外人民币的回流渠道,人民币国际化才能继续推进;5、人民币国际化可以在资本项目未完全开放的情况下推进,资本项目可兑换与人民币国际化进程相互促进,但人民币国际化的高级阶段要求人民币资本项目必须可兑换;6、人民币国际化既有收益也存在风险,需要采取措施尽可能降低风险。第一章为绪论,主要分析了国际金融危机背景下人民币国际化问题的研究意义,概括了货币国际化和人民币国际化的既有研究成果,介绍了本文的研究结构,指出了本文的创新之处及不足。第二章分析了国际货币和货币国际化的含义,货币国际化的途径、条件、成本与收益及其与资本项目可兑换的关系。第三章总结了美元、英镑、日元、欧元国际化的经验,并对新元不国际化的原因进行了分析,从正反两方面对人民币国际化的必要性及如何学习成功经验推进人民币国际化进行了阐述。第四章分析了人民币国际化的必要性、紧迫性和现状,并对一些观点进行了点评。第五章对人民币国际化的有利条件是,存在的障碍以及时机选择进行了分析;第六章提出了人民币国际化周边化、区域化和国际化三步走以及国际贸国际投资国际借贷和国际债券等计价结算同步推进的总体战略,并提出了推进人民币国际化的具体措施。第七章分析了人民币国际化的风险,如降低了中国货币政策有效性,增加了货币需求的不确定性、加大了国际投机资金冲击的风险等,并提出了防范和化解的措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 This dissertation conduct the empirical study on internationalization of US dollar, Euro, and Japanese Yen, and the non-internationalization of Singapore dollar, drawing lessons from their internationalization process, which is based on the definition, approach, condition, measurement, and cost-benefit analysis of currency internationalization. We present the analysis of the RMB internationalization in aspects of the status, necessity, urgency, strategy, route arrangements and policy, as well as risks and the prevention approach. The conclusions are as follows,1、It is necessary and urgent for China, a country with great political andeconomic impact, to realize RMB internationalization.2、It is the right time for RMB to realize internationalization with the currentcondition.3、Chinese government should take measures to parallel the process of RMBinternationalization, RMB cross-border trade settlement, RMB investment andinternational loans, for its significant position in the whole process.4、China must continue RMB internationalization by opening up nationalfinancial market in good order, and establish the channel for oversea RMB toflow back from abroad, with RMB outflow in various manners.5、The advanced stage of RMB internationalization requires RMBconvertibility in capital account. However, china can push forward RMBinternationalization with partially opening in capital account, as convertibilityin capital account and RMB internationalization will promote one another.6、Measures should be taken to reduce risks, which coexist with benefits inthe process of RMB internationalization. ’CHAPTER ONE’ introduces the structure, innovation and defects of the paper, by analyzing the value of RMB internationalization in global financial crisis, and current results of currency internationalization and RMB internationalization.’CHAPER TWO’ analyses the implication of international currency and internationalization of currency, the approach, condition, measurement, cost-benefit analysis of internationalization of currency, and its relationship with convertibility in capital account.’CHAPER THREE’ shows the necessity of RMB internationalization from the analysis of both positive and negative aspects , which summarize the experience of internationalization of US dollar, Euro, and Japanese Yen, and the non-internationalization of Singapore dollar. Moreover, the framework presents how to draw upon successful experiences to push forward RMB internationalization. US dollars and euro successfully implement their internationalization by formal system arrangements on global or regional level. However, Japanese Yen fails to reach the determined internationalization, for its separateness, fluctuation of Japanese Yen, and Japan’s mal-functioning of a responsible, big country in the Asia financial crisis.’CHAPTER FOUR’ analyzes the necessity, urgency, and status quo of RMB internationalization and comments on some viewpoints. RMB internationalization is a necessary and urgent issue, since RMB holds passive position in the international monetary system. China enjoys highly-concentrated risk for putting foreign exchange reserves mainly in US dollar, which is long being estimated to get depreciated. RMB has been widely used and circulated in many neighboring countries, and even been included the reservation capital by some individual country. RMB being given a cold shoulder in cross-border trade explains the fact that there still exist some obstacles in the process of RMB internationalization.’CHAPTER FIVE’ shows the advantage, impediments, and opportunity of RMB internationalization. RMB enjoys advantages of the fact, that China is stable in politics, that china maintains high growth rate and the third largest economy in aggregate, and that it provides channels of RMB outflow through trade. What’s more, China owns ample foreign exchange reserves and stable, strong currency, which has already been circulated in neighboring countries. Pediments exist mainly in RMB incomplete convertibility in capital account, lacking tools to avoid risks in exchange rate and interest rate, and limited capital channels for non-residents to get RMB. It is the right time for RMB to push forward its internationalization, when the current international financial crisis affects the confidence of the international community towards main international currencies, such as US dollars, euro, etc. to some extent.’CHAPTER SIX’ presents the overall strategy of ’three steps’, that is, to continue RMB internationalization on neighboring, regional, and international level in good order, and ’parallel pushing-forward ’, that is, to advance the pricing and settlement of international trade, international investment, international loans, and international bonds, and to advance capital account convertibility and RMB internationalization. It also offers the specific measures to promote RMB internationalization.’CHAPTER TEN’ analyses risks of RMB internationalization, such as, reducing the efficiency of Chinese monetary policy, upgrading the uncertainty of monetary demand, and increasing risks of attacks from international capital speculation.更多还原