不确定信息环境下区域物流能力柔性规划研究

【作者】 王岳峰；

【导师】 刘伟；

【作者基本信息】 上海海事大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 资料表明目前中国有相当一部分物流规划偏离了实际情况,问题的产生主要缘于两方面,其一是规划部门夸大了物流需求,各地出台物流规划有盲目争风之嫌,其二是缺乏系统的物流规划理论作为指导。因此,加强物流规划理论的研究使之更好地服务于物流规划实践便成为物流理论界的当务之急。尽管物流理论界已经有了一些相关的研究成果,但鉴于物流系统的复杂性和未来物流需求的不确定性,有些问题还没有很好地解决,还需要进一步深入探讨。区域物流规划应当是区域物流能力规划,而不应当等同于物流园区规划或者配送中心规划:同时,物流规划是一个多目标、非线性、有时滞和多重反馈的复杂决策系统,且决策者具有有限理性的特点。因此,论文提出要从物流能力和多目标柔性决策这样两个新的角度对区域物流系统规划进行研究,以期为相关部门的物流规划决策提供可参考的理论依据。论文主要应用现代物流理论、系统理论、不确定信息理论、盲数理论、现代数学规划理论以及多目标柔性决策理论,采用理论和实证相结合、定性和定量相结合的方法展开研究,主要研究内容分为四个部分。第1部分是文献回顾。广泛搜集整理与课题相关的国内外研究文献,包括物流能力的研究、区域物流系统规划理论的研究、不确定信息的研究、柔性决策的研究,较为系统深入地掌握课题的研究现状和动态,为后续研究工作打下基础:第2部分是全文的关键核心概念和相关理论基础。对论文的关键核心概念进行了对比分析研究,包括“物流能力”、“区域物流能力”、“区域物流能力柔性规划”等,在借鉴前人研究结论的基础上,给出了新的诠释;此外,对物流系统理论、盲数理论及柔性决策理论进行了阐述,这也是论文的理论基础:第3部分是论文的主体。主要研究内容包括区域物流能力构成要素;区域物流能力盲数测评模型;应用盲数描述和处理区域物流规划中不确定信息并建立了基于盲数理论的逐步多元线性回归预测模型;区域物流能力柔性规划概念模型的建立,并通过具体实例说明了模犁的应用。第4部分是为全文的研究总结和展望。在总结全文主要研究结论的基础上,指出了研究的局限性和不足,并提出了进一步的研究方向。论文主要结论如下:(1)文献研究结论指出对于物流能力的研究应当从企业的层面和供应链的层面拓展到区域的层面,而目前关于区域物流能力的研究相对较少;论文率先提出了区域物流能力规划的概念,指出应当从物流能力的角度考虑物流规划问题,认为区域物流规划的实质就是要以恰当的区域物流能力去满足未来的物流需求,而不仅仅是物流园区规划或者配送中心规划;(2)应用基于资源观的能力模型对区域物流能力构成要素进行剖析,认为区域物流能力是由任务、要素性资源、结构性资源及区域所处的外部环境构成。区域物流能力形成的根本任务是要降低区域物流成本、提高物流服务水平、满足区域社会经济发展对物流的需求;要素性资源形成的物流能力包括运输能力、储存能力、装卸搬运能力、包装能力、流通加工能力、配送能力和信息处理能力;结构性资源所形成的能力主要包括协调能力、标准化能力、创新能力、柔性能力及测评能力;区位环境所形成的能力主要包括区位地理条件、政策法律环境及人员素质等三个方面;(3)建立了基于盲数理论的逐步多元线性回归预测模型,应用其对区域物流需求进行了分析和预测,模型认为物流需求分析的指标应包括价值型指标和重量型指标,并建立了区域物流需求分析的指标体系;预测所得的结果可用盲数表示而不再是单一的数值,并可得到预测区间相应的可信度,为物流能力的柔性规划决策提供依据;(4)建立了信息混沌环境下区域物流能力盲数测评模型,将专家信息表示成盲数,区域物流能力总的评价结果分成五类,分别为“很好”、“较好”、“一般”、“较差”、“很差”,应用该模型不仅能够得到总的区域物流能力评分值,而且能够判断区域物流能力构成要素中的薄弱环节,从而确定物流规划投资的重点;(5)建立了区域物流能力柔性规划的概念模型,确立了区域物流能力柔性规划的递阶层次目标体系、决策变量输入体系以及相关的约束条件;该模型允许决策者以模糊语言表达自己的偏好,允许约束条件有一定的松弛范围,通过交互式决策,应用系统动力学仿真方法,从而选出决策者的满意方案,并通过实例说明了该模型的应用。论文研究所得到的结论和成果是对现有物流能力理论体系的有益完善和补充,所建立的系列模型可为实际物流规划工作提供参考指导作用,并为政府部门的科学决策提供可参考的理论依据,因而也赋予了该项研究的实践意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Datum shows that a great deal of logistics planning in china has deviated from Chinese logistics reality now. The problem is caused from two aspects, one is that the logistics requirements are exaggerated; the other is that the practice of logistics planning lacks of logistics planning theory. Thus strengthening the research of logistics planning is an urgent task. Though we have some research results, but because of the complex of logistics system and the uncertainty of the logistics requirements in the future, some problems in the theory of logistics planning haven’t been solved, and it would be discussed deeply.In fact, regional logistics system planning should be the same as regional capability logistics planning, and it shouldn’t just be logistics park planning or logistics distribution planning; at the same time, because the goal of logistics planning is uncertain and the decision maker usually is vague to make a decision, so logistics capability planning is a multiobject and flexible decision problem. Because of these reasons, the thesis discussed the problem from two ways, one is from "logistics capability", and the other is from "flexible decision". The thesis aims at supplying theoretical guidance for the practice of logistics system planning.The thesis apply modern logistics theory, logistics system theory, uncertaininformation theory, blind number theory, modern mathematics theory and multiobject flexible decision theory, adopt theoretical methodology combined with practical methodology, quantity methodology combined with qualitative methodology. The contents are divided into four parts.The first part is literature review. Many literature related with the research topic are searched , including logistics capability, the theory of regional logistics, uncertain information and flexible decision, the author mastered the actuality of the research and this will be the basement of the following research;The second part illuminated the core concepts and some related theory. The thesis discussed the core concept including logistics capability , regional logistics capability and flexible decision of regional logistics, the new annotation are given; besides these, the theory of logistics system, blind number and flexible decision are illustrated, all these are the research basement of the thesis;The third part is the main part of the thesis. The contents include the elements of regional logistics capability; the model of evaluating regional logistics capability based on the theory of blind number; the relation between logistics requirements of regional logistics and logistics volume; the model for forecasting regional logistics requirement based on blind number and stepwise multivariate linear regression; the conceptual model of flexible decision on the planning of regional logistics capability and an example illustrating the conceptual model is given.The fourth part is the conclusion and the prospect of future research. Based on the conclusion of the thesis, the limitation of the research is pointed out, and the prospect of future research is put forward.The conclusion of the thesis includes the following:(1)The literature review indicates that we should pay more attention to the regional logistics capability planning, it is the first time to put forward the concept of regional logistics capability planning in the thesis, the thesis indicates that we should consider logistics planning from the way of logistics capability, and the essence of regional logistics is that supply right regional logistics capability to meet logistics requirements in the future, it is not just a planning of logistics parks or of logistics distribution centers.(2) Analyzed the elements of regional logistics capability based on the model of source view, the thesis thinks that regional logistics capability is consisted of task, elements source, structured source and the environment of the region. The task of the regional logistics capability is to reduce the logistics cost of region, improve the level of logistics service, meet the requirements of logistics for the development of regional economic and social; logistics capability which is formed from the elements includes transportation capability, warehouse capability, loading and carrying capability, package capability, process capability, distribute capability and dispose information capability; logistics capability which is formed from structured source includes coordinate capability, standard capability, innovative capability, flexible capability and measure capability; the environment factors of the regional includes geographic factor, the policy and law for logistics and the diathesis of people;(3)Stepwise multivariate regression model based on the theory of blind number is set up, the logistics requirements of regional is analyzed, and the model thinks that the indexes of analyzing regional logistics requirements should include value-index and weight-index, and the index system for forecasting the regional logistics requirements is given, by this model the result can be described by blind number along with the reliability for the interzone, thus it can supply evidence for the flexible decision for the flexible planning of regional logistics capability;(4)The model for evaluating regional logistics capability based on blind number is set up under uncertain information environment, the information of the expert is described by blind number, and the result is dived into five class as "very good ", "good", "common", "inferior", "very bad"; not only the total mark of the regional logistics capability can get from the model and the weak elements of logistics capability can be identified , thus we can decided which is the emphases deserve us to invest;(5) The conceptual model of flexible decision for the regional logistics capability is set up; and the object function, decision variable system and related constraint are set up too; the model allows decision maker to describe their willing in vague language and the constraint can modified from a certain arrange, by the way of alternant decision, the decision maker can choose a satisfied scenario; an example for illustrating the model is given;All conclusion from the thesis is a valuable consummating and supplement for the theory of logistics capability; all the models in the thesis can give guidance for the practice of regional logistics capability planning, and then the research has its theoretical and practice meaning .更多还原