【作者】 冯峰；

【导师】 许士国；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 针对我国河流洪水资源利用的效益识别、定量评估以及综合评价等问题,以吉林省嫩江中下游的白城市为背景,开展了相关研究。首先,根据洪水资源利用效益产生于需水目标实际用水过程的基本设想,提出了一种适合于洪水资源本身特点的效益识别方法——功能与需求耦合识别法,并建立了相应的矩阵式数学模型。其次,在深入分析洪水资源利用效益过程的基础上,对各种效益因子的计算进行了方法归纳和公式确定,建立了洪水资源利用的经济效益、生态环境效益和社会效益,以及内涵效益与外延效益的定量评估技术体系。然后,在内涵效益和外延效益定量评估的基础上,明确了国民经济评价的目的和内容,并构建了洪水资源利用国民经济评价模型。对于洪水资源利用综合效益评价从微观和宏观的不同角度提出了相应的评价方法。社会效益通过基于熵权的模糊分度测评模型实现了定量评估,利用MCA多因素分析法的微观评价模型将不同量纲的效益价值进行综合比较评价。最后,针对河流洪水资源利用的区域如何实现年际间效益连续定量评价和对比分析问题,基于熵值权向量和多目标多级模糊优选理论,提出了河流洪水资源利用综合效益评价的多层次半结构性指标体系及连续动态宏观评价方法,从而实现了对综合效益进行合理的定量评价和动态对比。以白城市2002～2008年洪水资源利用实践为背景,利用功能与需求耦合法识别出对应的内涵、外延效益因子并进行定量估算,6年共计利用嫩江、洮儿河的过境洪水资源29.59亿m~3,产生内涵效益10.92亿元,其所引发的外延效益为164.83亿元。单位洪水资源的价格、内涵效益和外延效益分别为0.03、0.37及5.57元/m~3,3者的比为1:12:186。通过计算获得的2个国民经济评价指标如下:计入、不计入外延效益的经济净现值分别为7.33、172.16亿元,经济效益费用比分别为3.0、49.0。根据经济净现值≥0,经济效益费用比≥1的判断标准,白城市河流洪水资源利用具有经济合理性和实施可性行。利用构建的模型对白城市洪水资源利用的综合效益进行动态连续评价。以2002年为对比基准年,采用了不同权重进行综合评价,在评价的6年中2003年综合效益最优,其产生的效益评价增量为82.8%,最差的为2004年,其增量为18.2%。通过以上计算和分析,认为在保证洪水资源利用安全可靠、风险适度的前提下,该地区河流洪水资源利用的经济效益突出,生态环境效益和社会效益也十分显著。洪水资源利用不仅是解决水资源短缺的一种有效途径,也会对区域可持续发展及和谐社会的构建有着重大的现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at solving the benefit identification, quantitative assessment and comprehensive evaluation etc. issues of flood resources utilization in China, this essay analyzes and researches above problems based on taking Baicheng City, Jilin Province as an example. The results as following: benefit evaluation is the decision basis of flood resource utilization. Accordingly, a new benefit identification method with function-demand coupling is proposed. Taking the whole water system as the research object, the paper establishes a functional index system in terms of the function and effect, which mainly include water supply, water purification, hydropower generation; and it also establishes a demand index system with respect to the receptivity and the demand of water supply areas. Then, by coupling supply and demand, utilization benefit of flood resource may be identified. The benefit is. classified into economic, eco-environmental and social benefit. Based on the benefit identification by function-demand coupling and the classification of utilization benefit, the paper evaluates the economic and eco-environmental benefits which are quantifiable. The national economy evaluation model for flood water resource utilization is established based on the characteristics of benefit evaluation of flood resource utilization. The focus of this study is on evaluation of the comprehensive benefit of flood utilization in the manner of succession. A multi-level semi-constructive index set is used as evaluation foundation within the Baicheng City, where flood resources have been utilized since 2003. The results from the economic, eco-environmental and social impact are evaluated in a comprehensive way through the multi-level multi-objective fuzzy optimization model based upon entropy weight.Taking Baicheng city as an example, the net present value of connotation benefit (direct benefit) reaches RMB1.092 billion, that of extension benefit (indirect benefit) is up to RMB16.483 billion and that of cost is RMB0.395 billion as per the total flood utilization volume 2.959 billion cubic meters during the period 2003～2008. According to national economy evaluation standard, the net present value of the economy benefit (ENPV) is RMB17.219 billion≥0, the benefit-cost ratio (EBCR) is 49.0≥1, from which we can see that the flood resource utilization is reasonable and feasibility. The net present value of charging price, connotation benefit and economy benefits is 0.03, 0.37 and 5.57 Yuan per cubic meters respectively and the ratio among the three is 1:12:186. The national economy evaluation demonstrates that the flood resource is not only an effective way solving the regional water deficiency but also a kind of promotion to local ecological environment, social harmony and economy development. As expected, the model produces desired outcomes of continuous evaluation on the basis of the base year of 2002, the comprehensive benefit is the highest in 2003 and the least in 2004 because of difference in utilized quantity, the benefit in 2003 is optimal for the benefit increment is 82.8%, the benefit in 2004 is the worst due to the increment of 18.2%.From results of benefit identification and evaluation, it is well-known that there is remarkable economic, eco-environmental and social benefit of flood resource utilization. Consequently, flood resource utilization plays a dominant role in the sustainable development process of the region.更多还原