【作者】 李学森；

【导师】 王本德；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 水资源分布不均匀性与人类社会需水不均衡性的客观存在使得跨流域调水成为解决水资源供需矛盾的重要途径之一。跨流域调水系统调度决策方式与管理模式研究是水资源合理利用、优化配置、避害趋利的重要课题。本文基于跨流域调水系统的组成及特点,针对目前跨流域调水系统缺乏统一有效的水资源调度管理体系和调度决策中忽视水资源预报信息的问题,对跨流域调水系统调度决策方式和管理模式展开研究,取得如下研究成果:(1)以往跨流域调水系统进行调度规则确定时,主要依据的是旬月径流系列信息;基本不考虑场次洪水过程信息,调节计算中将洪水过程均化,因此确定的调水规则不符合实际,设计的各时段约束水位偏低,从而造成水资源的浪费。针对上述问题,参照单库的防洪兴利连续调节方法,且将长系列法和遗传算法相融合,提出一种跨流域调水系统调度规则优化决策方法。该方法不仅考虑兴利信息,而且考虑防洪信息,在全信息条件下处理问题;利用遗传算法采用群体方式组织优化搜索,并行地处理目标函数的多个局部峰值,减少了陷入局部最优解的可能性,搜索速度快,占用内存少,寻优效率高,是一种有效的自适应随机搜索算法,优化的调度决策规则可为决策者提供科学决策支持。(2)跨流域调水工程最优供水方案的选取是一项复杂的系统工程,属于多目标寻优决策过程。本文通过引入评价指标的权重趋势系数,将经验权重与系统客观发展趋势有机结合,构建一种跨流域调水系统供水方案的模糊优选方法,因而使方案优选结果更能逼近未来的实际。实例表明,所建立的考虑权重趋势系数的模糊优选方法既考虑了决策者的倾向和意愿,同时也考虑了各目标的未来发展趋势,优选出符合用水发展趋势的最优方案,使其更趋合理,亦弥补以往方案的选取方法的不足。(3)针对目前跨流域调水系统一直采用计划供水的调度方式及其规则,且入库水量缺乏预报信息的现状,本文首先利用美国国家环境预报中心GFS(Global ForcastingSystem)模式的10天降雨数值预报信息,建立其信息可利用性的统计方法;将气象预报与水文信息进行有机结合,提出基于决策树技术的GFS信息分级实时预报调度方法,给出跨流域调水系统实时预报调度规则,及其预报误差风险分析结果。实例表明,该方法对于充分利用水资源具有重要的理论及应用价值,是提高跨流域调水系统调度水平的有效途径。(4)跨流域调水工程如何进行合理运行、科学调度和有效管理,保证跨流域调水工程实现其规划目标,获得最大综合效益,是一个重要而复杂的课题。针对目前我国已建成的跨流域调水工程中缺乏统一有效的水资源管理体系的问题,进行跨流域调水工程管理模式研究。以北方某调水工程为例,采用多目标效用函数评价模型,推荐统一管理模式。为我国相应的工程管理体制改革和新工程建设运行管理体制的设置提供有益的借鉴和参考。最后对全文进行了总结,并对有待进～步研究的问题进行了讨论。更多还原

【Abstract】 Inter-basin Water Transfer Project becomes necessity because nonuniformity of water resources distribution and water requirement exists objectively in Human Society. Study on operation decision-making and management pattern in Inter-basin Water Transfer Syetem is an important task for water resources at three levels: rational utilization, optimum distribution, promotion of advantages with avoiding its evils. Based on the composition and characteristies of Inter-basin Water Transfer Syetem, aiming at the current issues that lack of unified and effective management system and ignore forecasting information. So we do the research on operation decision-making and management pattern and obtain the following research results:(1) Aiming at the previous questions that water transfer principle determination based on the tendays and monthly runoff series, almost without regard to floodprocess information; make flood process homogenize. Therefore, the water transfer principles do not conform to reality; the all time design constraints of water level is low, so water wasteis the ievitable result. To deal with these issues, the optimum operation decision principle method of Inter-basin Water Transfer System are presented based on promotion of advantages and flood control continuous operation style in single reservoir. It amalgamated Genetic Algorithm Long-Term Runoff Serials method, operation principle is presented based on promotion of advantages and flood control information, that is deal with the questions under total information condition. GA can organize optimum search processes using group style, parallel processing many local peaking of the object function, the possibilities of slipping into local optima are falling off, the searching speed is quickly, little EMS memory, high optimizing efficiency. It is an effective self-adaptive random searching algorithm and help decider to make scientific and correct choice. The optimum operation decision principle can provide scientific decision support for decision-makers.(2) It is a complicated system engineering to select the best water supply scheme, it belongs to a multi-objective optimization and decision process. A water supply supply schemes fuzzy optimum selection method is proposed by adopting weigh trend coefficient as evaluating indicator for the organic combination between experience weight and objective developing trend of Inter-basin Water Transfer Project system. It demonstrated from the application in engineering this method which consider not only the experience and will of decision-makers, but also the objective development trend of the matter makes the results more reasonable and remedy the deficiency in former design.(3) Aiming at the current problem that planned-water supply style and principle was used in Inter-basin Water Transfer System but lack the forecasting information. This paper first statistics 10-day forecasting rainfall distribution information issued from Global Forecasting System. Combined weather forecast information with hydrology information organically, The real-time forecasting operation principle is given according to the real-time forecasting operation method based on decision tree technology and predict its forecast error. Taking a Water Transfer Operation System as an illustration, demonstrates research results has theoretical as well as practical values for the full use of water resources. It is an effective way to improve the Inter-basin Water Transfer System operation level.(4) How the system worked reasonably, operated scientifically and managed effectively is an important and complexity task to guarantee its planned aim and obtain the maximum comprehensive benefit. Aim at the questions like lacking a uniform and efficient management system in Inter-basin Water Transfer Project in our country, study on management pattern and analyze benefit in different situations. Taking a Water Transfer Operation System as an illustration, recommended a coordinating committee management pattern using utility function of multi-objective evaluation model, and provide a lot of beneficial references and useful experience for management system reform and setting.Finally, a summary is given and some problems to be further studied are discussed.更多还原