【作者】 鹿晨昱；

【导师】 陈兴鹏；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 人文地理学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 随着经济的持续快速增长,人类在取得高度物质文明的同时,也出现了人口膨胀、资源短缺、生态破坏、污染严重等一系列的危机。因此,改变传统的发展模式,走可持续发展之路,就成为人类发展的必然选择。微观区域的可持续发展是宏观层面上实现整体可持续发展的基础。从地理学角度,运用系统论观点进行区域系统可持续发展的研究,是区域可持续发展研究的一种探索和尝试。本论文在理论推演的基础上,构建了县域可持续发展评价指标体系及评价模型,分析了区域可持续发展系统的结构、功能、特征及其因果反馈关系,并以庆阳为例进行了实证研究。联合使用着重于空间现象分析处理的GIS技术与着重于时间序列动态模拟的SD方法,对庆阳各县(区)区域可持续发展的时空演变特征进行了研究,分析了庆阳各县(区)1990年以来区域可持续发展的时空演变规律,并对2007年后区域可持续发展的时空演变趋势进行了预测研究。最后,设计了适合庆阳的区域可持续发展路径。本论文的研究具体包括以下几方面:1.关于评价指标体系和评价模型的分析。设计了县域可持续发展的评价指标体系,并将所有评价指标划分为元指标与二次指标两类:确定了区域可持续发展的综合评价模型,在全面考虑区域发展的持续性和协调性的基础上,对区域可持续发展加以综合评价。2.关于区域可持续发展系统的分析。认为区域可持续发展系统内存在着一系列复杂的因果反馈作用关系,体现在主要的因果反馈作用回路上,这些反馈回路相互联系、相互制约,影响着区域可持续发展系统的运行方向。3.关于庆阳区域可持续发展状况的实证评价。对庆阳各县(区)的区域可持续发展状况进行了综合评价与分析,结果表明:1990—2007年,庆阳各县(区)的区域可持续发展综合水平总体上是在逐渐增强,但这种增强的主要拉动力是经济的快速增长与社会的迅速进步,是以牺牲资源和环境为代价的。4.关于庆阳区域可持续发展的趋势预测。运用系统动力学模型预测了庆阳各县(区)未来的区域可持续发展变化趋势,研究表明传统经济发展模式是不可持续的发展模式。在传统经济发展模式下,2007—2020年庆阳各县(区)的区域可持续发展综合水平将会逐渐转为下降的趋势,经济增长速度越快,这种现象越明显。5.关于庆阳区域可持续发展的空间结构演变分析。使用重心位移分析方法,分析了1990年以来庆阳区域可持续发展的空间结构演变规律及2007年后庆阳区域可持续发展的空间结构演变趋势。研究表明,庆阳区域可持续发展的空间分布不均衡,各县区差异较大,且空间结构不稳定,随时间变化波动较大,经济增速越快,波动就越大,区域可持续发展系统会越不稳定。6.关于庆阳区域可持续发展的实现路径分析。从生态经济学的角度设计了适合于庆阳的区域可持续发展路径,将生态经济的理念贯穿于庆阳的区域发展中,认为发展生态工业、发展生态农业、发展生态服务业、推广生态消费是最适合庆阳的区域可持续发展路径。综上所述,一方面本论文丰富与发展了区域可持续发展理论,为区域可持续发展方面的研究提供了新思路、新方法,具有重要的理论意义。另一方面,又能够为庆阳相关政府部门制定区域可持续发展战略提供科学依据,有助于实现微观区域的可持续发展,从而最终实现宏观层面上的整体可持续发展,具有重大的现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the rapid growth of economic development, the human beings have been addressed abundant substance civilization, and on the other hand, series crisis about the population expansion, resource shortage, ecological destruction and environmental pollution have emerged. Therefore, the human beings must change traditional development mode into sustainable development mode. The sustainable development of microcosmic region is the basis of macroscopical sustainable development. From the viewpoint of geography science, the study on the regional systemic sustainable development based on the systemic analysis theory is an innovative and valuable behavior to the field of regional sustainable development research.Based on theoretical deduction, this thesis established an indicators’ system and a model as well to assess the regional sustainable development on the county level, and analyzed the structure, function, characters and feedback relation of regional sustainable developmental system by taking Qingyang as a case. Based on the approach of GIS and SD, this thesis respectively analyzed the characters of the temporal and spatial evolvement on the sub-regional sustainable development in Qingyang, and doped out the temporal and spatial evolvement trend as well. In the end, the road to address the sustainable development of Qingyang is designed and proposed. The research includes several aspects as following:1. Analysis on the assessment indicators’ system and assessment model. This thesis proposed an indicators’ system, which is categorized as meta-data index and secondary index, to assess the regional sustainable development on county level. And then, this thesis established a general assessment model considered the sustainability and co-ordinability to synthetically evaluate the regional development.2. Analysis on the regional sustainable developmental system. The outcome shows that the system contains a series of complicated causality and feedback which is represented as catena closed loops. The loops affect each other result of redirecting the regional sustainable development system. 3. Assessment of the regional sustainable development of Qingyang. The thesis assessed and analyzed the quo state of sub-regional (county level) sustainable development in Qingyang. The outcome shows that the integrated sustainability on the county level is increased gradually, where the driving force for increasing is due to the rapid growing of the society and economy along with the cost of abundant resources consumption and ecosystem degradation.4. Prediction of regional sustainable development of Qingyang. This thesis predicted the evolvement trend of sub-regional sustainable development in Qingyang based on the methodology of SD. The outcome shows that the traditional economic development mode is not sustainable. Under the traditional economic development, the integrated sustainability of sub-region will decline continually from 2007 to 2020. The decline could be more obvious if the economic growth is more rapid.5. Analysis on the evolvement of spatial structure of regional sustainable development of Qingyang. This thesis analyzed the historical evolvement and trend of spatial structure disciplinarian of regional sustainable development based on the method of Gravity Center Shift. The outcome shows that the spatial distribution is unbalance. The spatial structure is unsteady, and the undulation is obvious. The more rapid growth of economic development, the undulation is more obvious, and the regional sustainable development system is more unsteady.6. Analysis on the developmental path to meet the regional sustainable development. From the perspective of ecological economics, this thesis proposed a suitable path used for Qingyang to meet the sustainable development, which embodies the conception of ecological economics. It is considered that the suitable path includes ecological industry, ecological agriculture, ecological service industry and ecological consumption.In conclusion, on the one hand, this thesis is of important theoretical significance, which is expected to enrich and develop the theory on regional sustainable development, and to provide new idea and method as well for the research on regional sustainable development. On the other hand, this thesis has prominent practical significance, which could provide scientific foundation for the local government to make the developmental polices which is propitious to achieve the microcosmic regional sustainable development, and to meet the whole macroscopically sustainable development of Qingyang.更多还原