东亚生产与贸易一体化

【作者】 彭支伟；

【导师】 佟家栋；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 上世纪九十年代以来,在东亚一度盛行的“雁行模式”逐渐势微,新的区域分工网络开始形成。垂直专业化生产的兴起是构建东亚新型分工网络体系的主导力量。这种新的生产分工模式对东亚地区的福利分配、技术扩散、贸易格局、以及经济稳定运行面临的风险产生了深远的影响。本文针对上述问题逐一进行研究。文章共分五章,各章主要内容如下:第一章对本文选题的背景和选题意义进行了阐述,接下来对国内外相关研究的进展进行了总结和评述,在此基础上提出了本文研究的主要思路与研究方法,尔后总结了本文的创新点和值得进一步研究的方向。第二章对“雁行模式”时代以来的东亚区域分工体系的演变进行了分析。垂直专业化生产的发展是促进新的东亚区域网络分工体系形成的关键因素。本章以Hummels等(2001)提出的方法为基础,运用GTAP数据库提供的数据计算了1995年和2001年东亚各国/地区生产的垂直专业化程度,并分析了东亚垂直专业化分工的行业分布。在此基础上对影响东亚垂直专业化生产的相关因素进行了计量检验,随后对东亚经济体彼此之间的垂直专业化出口按生产过程进行分解,以此分析了以垂直专业化分工为纽带的东亚分工体系的网络特征。第三章对东亚区域分工体系的稳定性和区域网络分工体系下的东亚贸易格局进行了探讨。在垂直专业化分工体系内,技术外溢机制发生了变革,产品内分工的发展使得发达国家和发展中国家所从事的生产活动出现了进一步分化,发展中国家被固定在纯粹的加工生产阶段,形成了发展中国家和发达国家在“干中学加工”与“干中学开发”的分化局面。这种格局使得发展中国家和发达国家在区域生产分工网络中获得的相对利益份额也出现分化。同时,发展中国家处于价值链末端的地位趋于被固定化。本部分详细探讨了新型网络分工模式下技术扩散机制的变革对东亚区域分工体系演进构成的影响和挑战。第三章的第二部分对近三十年以来东亚区域贸易的发展概况进行了回顾,随后对垂直专业化生产发展对区域内部贸易增长的贡献度进行了估计,并对“雁行”时代以来,日本、东亚发展中经济体与欧美之间的“三角贸易”格局和发展动态进行了分析。在新“三角贸易”格局中,东亚发展中经济体处于对区域外部市场零部件进口和制成品出口“两头倚重”的境地。这种生产和贸易格局使得东亚经济体在面对外部冲击时显得尤其脆弱。第四章基于新开放经济宏观经济学框架,针对第三章提出的“两头倚重”的生产贸易格局构建了一个包含两阶段生产和贸易的三国动态一般均衡模型,对外部需求面和供给面产生各种类型的冲击时,两国中间品和最终品产出、消费及贸易收支的变动机理进行了深入分析。在此基础上,进一步研究了外部冲击在两国内部中间品市场、最终品市场以及金融市场之间各类不同的开放格局下对两国影响的异同,从而得出了在“两头倚重”的生产和贸易格局下,当外部需求或供给冲击发生时,不同方式的区域市场一体化模式对两国经济运行波动影响的异同。本章最后运用东亚各国的数据对模型结论进行了检验,在此基础上对在垂直生产和贸易背景下推进东亚区域内部市场开放提出了政策建议。第五章分析了中国对东亚区域网络分工体系形成的作用,并运用中国的数据对第三章提出的区域网络分工体系下的技术进步原理进行了实证检验,检验结果证实了上文提出的基本原理。依据上文分析提出的原理和本章的实证结论,本章对中国如何在全球分工背景下的区域分工体系中获取技术进步提出了政策建议。最后,本章针对当前东亚区域经济合作的制度化进展和第四章分析中所得的结论对中国参与区域经济一体化合作提出了政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the 1990s, the ever prevailed "flying geese" model in East Asia (EA) began to lose its advantage, and a new regional production networks began to take its place. Quick development of Vertical Specialization (VS) plays a key role in constructing the new production networks. Vertical Specialization also brings profound implications to EA in aspects such as welfare allocation, technology diffusion, regional trade patterns and the risk of macroeconomic volatilities. This dissertation aims to study the above issues in turn. The contents consist of five chapters, main points for each chapter are briefly introduced as follows:ChapterⅠis the introduction, in which the background and significance of our topic are firstly discussed, then a survey to the existed researches in related fields is followed. Based a comment on the existed papers, we put forward the scheme of the research proposal for this dissertation and major methodologies it will adopt. Finally, we conclude the major innovation of this dissertation and point out some directions for further research.In ChapterⅡ, the evolution from the "flying geese" model to the current regional production networks in EA is surveyed, where we find that the rise of Vertical Specialization is the key factor shaping the new regional production networks. We employed the method presented by Hummels etal (2001) to study the development of VS in EA since the last two decades. GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) database provides data source called by Hummels etal (2001) ’ s methodology, by which we calculated the VS content in nine major East Asian economies’ gross export in 1995 and 2001. We also decomposed the VS content in East Asian gross export into industry level, and analyzed the VS content from perspective of industries for each economy. We then cast an econometric analysis to the factors affecting VS in EA, using the industrial level VS index obtained by our own calculation. Before the end of this chapter, we further decomposed the bilateral gross export ’ s VS content among the major economies, according to direction of imports and exports respectively, and analyzed the characteristics of production networks embodied in the process of Vertical Specialization in EA.ChapterⅢis focused on discussion to the nature of stability of regional production networks and trade patterns under such production networks in EA. We found that, in a vertical specialized production networks, the mechanism for technology diffusion has changed. Division of labor within one product polarizes the activities of different countries in the production process, in which the developing countries are fixed on the stage of pure assembling, while the developed economies are focused in R&D, marketing and other stages with higher returns. Thus, what are learned from division of labor differs sharply between countries of different levels: the developing countries accumulate experience in assembling, while the developed economies get the opportunity to fortify their advantages in R&D. In such a pattern, the gap in relative gains between two types of countries trends to expand, developing countries’ position in the end of global value chain therefore trends to be fixed. In this part, we explore the changed nature of technology diffusion in the new production networks, and its impact on the evolvement of East Asian production networks.In the second section of Chapter III, trade development in East Asia in the past three decades is investigated, following which an econometric test on Vertical Specialization’ s contribution to trade growth in East Asia is cast. We also make a survey on the evolvement of "trade triangle" among Japan, other East Asian economies and US & Europe since the "flying geese" era, which finds that, within the present new "trade triangle", the developing economies in East Asia are exposed to a position of "double reliance" on external markets, i.e., they rely heavily on external markets both on parts& components imports and manufactured goods exports. In such a pattern, these economies are particularly vulnerable against external shocks.To explore the concrete mechanism of East Asian economies’ response against external shocks under such a "double reliance" position, we construct a three-country, two-stage production/trade dynamic general equilibrium model in the framework of New Open Macro-economics (NOEM) in Chapter IV. In this model, volatilities of output in intermediate and final goods, consumption as well as trade balances in the two countries within one region triggered by various external shocks are analyzed. During the process of simulation, external shocks are assumed to arise from demand side (money supply or government expenditure) or supply side (production efficiency in final stage or labor supply). Meanwhile, various types of market integrations between intermediate goods markets, final goods markets and financial markets within the region are taken into account in simulating the effects of external shocks. After finishing the theoretical analysis, we cast an empirical test on East Asian economies, where the major propositions from the theoretical model are supported. Then in the last part of this chapter, we present policy suggestions to East Asia on pushing forward regional market integration under the background of vertical production and trade.In ChapterⅤ, we first analyze China’ role in constructing new production networks in East Asia, then we use data from China to test the major propositions about technology diffusion in regional production networks dominated by Vertical Specialization, which are presented in ChapterⅢ. Results of the test turn to be positive to the above propositions. We then put forward suggestions to China on how to win technology update in present regional production networks. Finally, we investigate the progress and challenges in institutional economic integration in EA since 1997 and bring forward suggestions on China’ s participation to East Asian regional economic integration.更多还原