外资并购国有企业的定价问题研究

【作者】 马永亮；

【导师】 蒋殿春；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 世界经济， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 本论文主要讨论外资并购国有企业中的定价问题。从外资并购出现后,国有企业贱卖或国有资产流失就成为一个议论纷纷的话题,而定价过程中所产生的各种问题也不断涌现。国有资产流失及其它相关问题在业界及学术界一直都存在较大的争议。无可争议的是,若不能解决这一问题,则我国国民利益不仅在交易中将受到侵占,而且改革成果也可能会让渡他人。令人遗憾的是,多年来,与此相关的研究并没有能够对此问题进行较为透彻的分析并提出相应的解决办法。同时,政府方面也没有一个令各方面都比较满意的国有企业的定价规则及定价方法。本研究尝试探讨这一问题,一方面希望对外资并购国有企业的定价过程及机制进行深入的分析,另一方面,为解决问题,本研究还将根据外资并购国有企业的实际情况及中国经济情况提出一个合理的评估国有企业价值的方法。因此,本论文的研究方法及结论兼具重要理论意义和现实意义。由于国有企业的产权及实际经营管理的特点,产生了多重代理关系。在制度产生的扭曲激励下,形成了国有企业与实际控制人利益的背离。在外资并购过程中,存在相关利益方的多个博弈,通过分析这些博弈的均衡状态,我们找到了外资并购国有企业中交易价格的确立机制。这是本文最重要的一部分。对于解决问题的方案,本研究按照以下两个步骤来探讨,首先讨论现阶段国有资产转让过程中的定价规则及实践中使用的定价方法,通过理论分析来讨论这些规则及方法的优点、缺点以及适用条件;然后根据对外资并购国有企业的特点及中国经济情况的讨论来总结这些定价模型和方法存在的问题。根据中国经济的发展特点以及转型特征,我们认为现阶段中国的经济特征是存在非常大的不确定性。与此同时,在经济转型过程中,随着市场化程度不断深入,很多要素定价逐渐市场化,为与之相关的行业带来一些不确定性。从理论上讲,这些不确定性赋予外资收购方一些期权,而这些期权具有很大的价值,所以我们认为现有的定价规则及方法可能会忽略这种不确定性的价值而低估国有企业的价值。为解决这一问题,我们希望在定价模型中引入能够刻画并定量计算不确定性价值的模型。因此,本文选择能够解决不确定性问题的实物期权模型作为定价模型的一部分,将该模型的计算结果作为NPV结果的重要补充而引入扩展的NPV模型。最后,我们根据外资收购方的特征分为战略投资者收购与财务投资者收购两类,并根据这两类外资并购的特点讨论收购方在收购国有企业中拥有的各种期权,并根据期权的特点选择相应的实物期权模型。对于财务投资者,国内金融制度的改革赋予各种金融资产更好的流动性,即外资方在收购一段时间后可能会拥有在二级市场的卖权等。而对于战略投资者,我们认为其更注重企业经营过程中的各种选择机会包括扩张、收缩以及资产剥离等。根据分析结果,本文建立了两个实物期权模型。更进一步,本文将两个模型的参数细化,使模型中的各个参数在一定的假设下能够与目标企业的财务数据或二级市场价格数据相联系。在后面的实证部分中,我们应用本研究提出的资产定价模型对现有外资并购案例进行实证分析。该实证分析摆脱了以往该类研究基本使用模拟计算的方式进行分析。文章根据定价模型选取外资并购上市公司国有股的两个实际案例进行计算。在实证分析之后,我们对影响该目标企业价值的因素进行详尽的分析,并根据该外资并购案例的实际情况讨论理论价值计算结果与实际交易价格之间的差异。此外,本文还对其它一些能够影响到外资并购国有企业价值评估因素进行详尽的分析,我们认这些因素也会影响到外资并购国有企业的价值评估问题。而该问题在之前的研究中并没有给予研究,因此本文对此部分的研究提高了本研究的完整性。本文的政策建议主要针对文章的研究结论提出。虽然国有企业产权问题及制度激励在短期内很难得到解决,但我们仍然要对定价规则和外资并购交易制度提出一些建议,并希望这种改变能够部分地解决现有的国有企业的定价问题。一方面,对于定价方法及规则这部分,我们认为既应该引入更加灵活、市场化的定价方法评估国有企业或国有资产的价值。实物期权在计算方面存在复杂性,但却不失为解决问题的一种好思路;另一方面,在无法解决实质问题前,也可以通过加强外资并购市场交易对制度建设弥补部分问题。解决的途径是提高外资并购交易的市场化程度,通过制度设计引入更多的参与者、提高市场厚度。总之,定价这一问题的解决还需要包括国有企业产权改革等一系列制度的实质性改革。因此,不是一个能够在短期内解决的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 This dissertation will investigate the asset pricing in cross-border M&A in China for state-owned enterprises. The asset pricing problems went with the very beginning of the cross-border M&A. Furthermore, some cases promote the development of policies and laws related with cross-border M&A. As for given case, the industry and academician haven’t had agreement on pricing result. However, we couldn’t find a suitable pricing model for state-owned enterprises. To settle this problem and end the dispute on deal prices, this research will analyze the cross-border M&A in China thoroughly and provide pricing models for cross-border M&A of this stage based on the characters of China’s economy. Therefore, the approaches and research outcomes have both theoretical meanings and realism meanings.To build our pricing models, we start with the popular models. On the one hand, we discuss the pricing rules and method in practical and then summarize the advantages, weaknesses and application conditions theoretically. On the other hand, we find the problems of these pricing models according to the deep analyses. With the understanding of China economy and economic transition, our opinion is that we had great uncertainties in this stage in China from the macro-economy and development of some industries. At the same time, with the deepening of market-oriented economy reform, many more resources will be priced with market ways. But the practical approaches are usually come from planned economy and couldn’t show the market value. Basically, these are also uncertainties. So we think that these pricing rules could miss the evaluation of uncertainty. In some cases, the uncertainties are of great value. Theoretically, these uncertainties are options for foreign buyers. So these valuation methods will undervalue the state-owned enterprises. We hope that we can introduce a model with tools pricing these uncertainties. Naturally, the real option model turn to be our choice and the expanded NPV model with real option model is the main model in our research.We classify foreign acquirers into two types including strategic investors and financial investors according to the M&A character and then we conclude their options of different investors. After that, we pick up the best real option models for these options. For strategic investors, we are confident with that they pay more attention to the operational choices including expansion, shrinkage and asset sales. For the other one, the financial system reform will offer the investors more liquidity. Their shares will possibly be negotiable in secondary market after the deal. With these analytical results, we build two models. After some necessary assumptions, we link the model parameter to the financial data or price data.In empirical part, we employ case analysis rather than the simulation calculus in similar researches. We choose two cross-border M&A cases for two models. After the evaluation, the dissertation shed some lights on the factors affecting the value of these state-owned enterprises and discusses the difference between the tender price and theoretical value.The asset value depends on the system environment and we give our summaries on these factors related with value. Though we can tell whether the state-owned enterprises are underpriced in cross-border M&A based on the empirical results. But these values are partly from these investors especially for strategic investors. What’s more, we couldn’t calculate these values. So the difference between deal price and model result can’t answer the above problem. With the same logic, we also couldn’t make our point with the pure market performance after cross-border M&A.One of our research results is that the market systems of cross-border M&A are key elements causing the undervaluation problem. We give a deep investigation on this topic from dealing rules to bargaining power of two sides. Our findings are that several factors have impacts on cross-border M&A market at present.Corresponding to the research results, we bring our policy suggestions mainly focusing on pricing rules and cross-border M&A market system. On the one hand, we need to introduce more flexible pricing methods for evaluation of cross-border M&A. On the other hand, we need to design more rational market system to push the development of cross-border M&A market. These need cooperation with different system reforms. So we shouldn’t expect them to finish in the near future.更多还原