中国宏观经济运行：增长与波动

【作者】 王晨；

【导师】 樊纲； 柳欣；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 西方经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 新古典理论的基础是以资源配置为核心的相对价格理论,即资源配置可以通过表示要素稀缺性和人们偏好的相对价格进而达到最优。在这个理论中并没有得到任何有意义的总量以及总量之间的关系。但在现实中国民收入核算体系的统计变量完全是以货币价值的总量来表示的,即GDP所表示的总收入和其分解为工资、利润、消费、投资等,以及资本和证券,这些概念与新古典理论中的相对价格是完全不同的,它们并不表示任何实物上的投入产出关系,而是来自于资本主义的经济制度。如马克思所表明的,资本主义经济是实现“按比例分配劳动”或资源配置的一种特殊方式,这种特殊的方式就是以货币价值为基础的竞争。当主流经济学把由经济制度所决定的国民收入统计变量完全套用在生产函数上时,不可避免地导致了理论中的逻辑矛盾,这种逻辑矛盾在剑桥资本争论中被揭示出来,作为逻辑问题就是总量与相对价格之间的矛盾,而在现实的经验问题上,则表现为新古典理论不能直接使用国民收入核算的统计资料来说明资源配置和经济增长,更不能解释有效需求和经济制度问题。主流经济学中这种理论和现实的矛盾,导致了目前经济学在很多的理论问题上都存在着难以解决的复杂争论。而在现实问题的分析上,由于其理论中的逻辑矛盾,从而不能对现实经济问题做出逻辑一致的解释和进行有效的预测。因此本文建立了一个货币理论体系来解释中国的宏观经济运行:增长与波动。从而在总量和相对价格之间建立联系,表明一种完全不同于新古典的一般均衡理论,这种均衡理论即是由斯密、李嘉图和马克思所表明的古典一般均衡理论。论文共分五章,结构安排如下:导论部分介绍了本研究的理论和实践层面的重要意义、研究背景、研究方法以及创新点与不足。第一章,对货币理论进行了重新梳理,从什么是货币?货币的性质(即货币是一种建立在资产抵押基础上的信用关系)入手,站在货币理论争论的角度,着重讨论货币理论的“两分法、存量与流量、内生与外生的货币供给”三个基本问题。最后从货币理论的基础出发得到了一种加总异质品的方法。第二章,将研究的重点集中在相对价格问题上,其核心是表明相对价格与总量的相互作用,其中重要的是收入效应。通过重新阐述收入的性质和收入效应,近而在总量和相对价格之间建立联系,从而表明一种完全不同于新古典的一般均衡理论,这种均衡理论即是由斯密、李嘉图和马克思所表明的古典一般均衡理论。第三章,构建了一个简化的货币经济宏观模型,并以此来对我国内生经济增长下财政与货币政策产生的动态效应进行了分析。通过分析认为:在经济衰退时,如果政府采取紧缩的货币、财政政策,势必导致更为严重的经济衰退。但如果政府基于收入—支出模型或IS—LM模型使用财政、货币政策来调节总需求,其结果也很有可能会导致通货膨胀或滞胀。并对我国金融发展与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证检验,得出我国金融发展与经济增长之间存在显着正相关的结论。第四章,在上述模型的基础上,从资本存量与收入流量均衡的角度,分析了中国长期经济增长中,功能性收入分配比例失衡的原因及其对有效需求结构的影响。从而试图构建一种解释功能性收入分配失调与有效需求结构失衡问题的新框架,并对此进行了实证分析。最后提出政府在调节经济的同时,应特别注意有效需求问题,同时调整收入分配,保持资本存量与收入流量之间适当的比例关系,这对实现国民经济平稳、快速的增长有着重要的意义。第五章,以生产函数为基础的传统经济理论,认为宏观统计变量之间是以技术为基础的投入产出关系。而通过本章的论证,认为目前国民收入核算体系中的所有由货币量值表示的统计变量是由社会关系或特定的货币金融体系决定的,与新古典理论中生产函数的技术分析并无关系。并运用这一新的理论分析我国之前的通货膨胀问题,表明我国经济中出现的通货膨胀不是一般经济周期中产生的价格上升,而是类似于美国上个世纪70年代所产生的滞涨。由此预测,中国经济增长有可能将遭遇滞胀。更多还原

【Abstract】 The base of New classical theory is the theory of relative price which takes allocation of resources as the core. Allocation of resources will achieve optimization through relative price which denotes factors scarcity and people’s preference. There are not any relations among any gross in this theory. But in the true life, the statistic variables in the system of national accounts are expressed by the monetary gross. That is to say the gross income which is expressed by the GDP and wage, profit, consumption, investment are different from relative price in the New classical theory. They do not denote any input-output relations in real goods. They come from capitalistic economic institution. As Marx’s description, capitalistic economy is a special mode which is to allocate resources pro rata. This mode is a kind of competition which bases on monetary value. When mainstream economics take statistic variables of national income on the producer function, it will lead to logistic inconsistency. That is inconsistency between gross and relative price. But in the realistic experience, New classical theory can not use the statistic variables in the system of national accounts to explain allocation of resources, economic growth, effective demand and economic institution.The theoretical and realistic inconsistency in the mainstream economics result in many inextricable dispute. So in the true life, it can not explain reality and can not carry out effective forecast. Therefore in this dissertation we establish a monetary system to analyze economic growth and fluctuation in China. And we establish relationship between gross and relative price to express a general equilibrium theory, which is different from New classical theory. That is classical general equilibrium theory. The dissertation is structured as follows:The introduction part is on the theoretical and practical values, research background, research methodology, logical structure, and innovation of this research.Chapter 1 summarized monetary theory. In the beginning, we analyze what is money, the character of money. Then we analyze the three essential question in the debates of monetary theory: one divides into two, stock and flow, endogenetic and exogenous monetary supply. In the end, we acquire a method to add up to different goods.In chapter 2 we concentrate on the relative price to express the reciprocity between the gross and relative price. And the income effect is important. Throuth expatiating the character of income and income effects, we establish relationship between gross and relative price to express a general equilibrium theory, which is different from New classical theory. That is classical general equilibrium theory.In chapter 3 we construct a simple monetary model to analyze the dynamic effects of monetary and fiscal policies under the condition of Endogenous Economic Growth in China. Through our analysis, we conclude that in a declining economy, if government change the aggregate demand based on NI-AE model or IS-LM model, it will lead to inflation or stagflation. Then we conduct a analysis of financial development and economic growth in China and conclude that financial development will promote economic growth.In chapter 4 basing on the above model, we analyze the reason for unbalancing the proportion of functional income distribution and influence of it on the effective demand structure. We try to construct a new frame to explain the problem of functional income distribution maladjustment and the unbalance of effective demand structure. We conclude that for the sake of steady and rapid growth of national economy, the government should especially pay attention to the problem of effective demand, and adjust income distribution timely, and proportion the capital stock to the income flow.In chapter 5 traditional economic theory consider that there is a input-output relation based on the technique among macroscopical economic variables. We conclude that all of the statistic variables in the system of national accounts are determined by the social relations and monetary system. It have no relation to producer function. And we use the new theory to analyze the inflation in China, and conclude that the inflation in China is not the rise of price in general business cycle but the stagflation.更多还原