虚拟经济与实体经济关系研究

【作者】 段彦飞；

【导师】 刘骏民；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 西方经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 虚拟经济是市场经济高度发达的产物,虚拟经济和实体经济成为宏观经济运行中两种不同的经济形态。由于当代经济中虚拟经济与实体经济的紧密联系,虚拟经济促进实体经济增长的同时也会对实体经济稳定带来消极破坏性影响,这就需要深入研究和正确处理虚拟经济与实体经济的关系。对虚拟经济与实体经济关系给予新的、深刻的认识和诠释,有助于清楚认识虚拟经济在宏观经济运行中的作用,保持虚拟经济与实体经济之间的协调合理发展,理解经济虚拟化条件下金融危机的形成机制,防范和减免金融危机对宏观经济稳定的冲击——这是研究虚拟经济与实体经济关系的现实意义。立足于当代经济虚拟化的现实,从货币收入角度把握虚拟经济和实体经济之间的互动关系,更能体现市场经济运行追求货币利润、货币收入的本质,并尝试在虚拟经济和实体经济关系的框架下,理解宏观经济的增长模式和均衡模式——这是研究虚拟经济与实体经济关系的理论价值。本文从货币收入视角构建了虚拟经济与实体经济关系的部门模型。模型从一个包含最低限度的企业部门和家庭部门的初始经济状态(纯粹的实体经济模型)开始,逐一加入金融部门、政府部门和国外部门形成完备的经济体系。结论表明,虚拟经济的运行导致了货币收入的扩张。从货币收入的分析视角,虚拟经济与实体经济关系表现为货币收入(货币利润)的形成过程中两者的相互影响机制。如果虚拟经济和实体经济保持合理的发展速度和发展规模,保持货币收入的正常循环,虚拟经济与实体经济的发展相互促进;如果虚拟经济与实体经济的发展不相适应,将导致货币收入循环的断裂,进而形成货币资金配置的低效率或泡沫经济的产生。虚拟经济与实体经济关系决定于货币在虚拟经济和实体经济之间的配置方式。在虚拟经济与实体经济两分法下,本文构建了加入虚拟经济的当代货币数量公式解释货币在虚拟经济和实体经济之间的配置机制;并通过讨论经济虚拟化条件下宏观经济的均衡机制,提出虚拟经济与实体经济的宏观均衡模式决定于两个系统中的资产收益率。依据虚拟经济与实体经济的宏观均衡模式,两者的关系表现出两大特征:虚拟经济的运行具有相对独立性和虚拟经济对实体经济具有寄生性。在美国债务经济的国际循环过程中,虚拟经济空前膨胀而实体经济相对衰落,虚拟经济与实体经济的发展失衡是美国经济发展模式的不能承受之重,最终导致次贷危机的形成并迅速演变为全球性金融危机。在对虚拟经济与实体经济的计量检验中,采用分阶段数据的格兰杰因果关系检验,检验虚拟经济运行的独立性特征;采用货币供给对虚拟经济和实体经济的脉冲响应函数,检验货币供给对虚拟经济和实体经济的冲击作用。检验的结果表明,自由化的经济模式下,虚拟经济运行的独立性增强;货币供给的变化在短期内对虚拟经济和实体经济(尤其是虚拟经济)都形成冲击,而在长期内货币供给的影响逐步消失。虚拟经济运行关系到整个宏观经济的稳定。正确处理虚拟经济与实体经济的关系,是经济虚拟化进程中宏观经济政策的关键所在:一是要巩固并壮大实体经济的发展,不断进行实体经济结构优化升级:二是要循序而合理地推进虚拟经济的发展,完善市场经济配置货币资金和社会资源的市场机制;三是要调控货币供给规模和货币的资源配置功能,保证虚拟经济和实体经济协调发展。本文的理论创新主要体现在三个方面:一是以货币收入为分析视角,构建了虚拟经济与实体经济关系的部门模型,提出虚拟经济与实体经济关系的核心是货币流通中货币收入和货币利润形成过程的观点;二是通过加入虚拟经济部门扩展当代的经典货币数量公式,解释了货币在虚拟经济和实体经济之间的配置机制,提出虚拟经济与实体经济的宏观经济均衡模式,指出虚拟经济运行所具有的相对独立性和对实体经济的寄生性特征;三是论证美国经济模式下虚拟经济独立性增强的趋势,进而提出货币供给变化短期内对虚拟经济和实体经济都形成冲击、长期内货币供给的影响逐步消失的观点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Fictitious economy develops with the senior stage of market economy. Fictitious economy and real economy are two patterns of macroeconomy, and affect each other. Fictitious economy promotes the growth of real economy and has passive effect on the stability of real economy as well, which needs us to do research and deal with the relationship between fictitious economy and real economy correctly.To give a new and correct explanation of the relationship between fictitious economy and real economy could be helpful to identify the effect of fictitious economy in macroeconomy, to keep fictitious economy and real economy develop coordinately and the stability of economy system, which is the realistic significance that we study the relationship between fictitious and real economy. Based on the fact of modern economy fictionization, to analyses the relationship between fictitious economy and real economy in the prospect of monetary income, could see the essence of market economy, in which people are in pursuit of profit and monetary income. Meanwhile, we could research the equilibrium pattern and economic growth in the frame of relationship between fictitious economy and real economy, which is theoretical value that we study the relationship between them.A model of relationship between fictitious economy and real economy in the prospect of monetary income is established, which starts up with two sectors, enterprise and household, joined by financial, governmental and oversea sector. The conclusion is that the running of fictitious economy results in expanse of monetary income. In the prospect of monetary income, the relationship between fictitious economy and real economy embodies in the effcet mechanism in the process of monetary income formation. When fictitious economy keeps reasonable development speed and scale with real economy, they will promote each other. And fictitious economy doesn’t fit the development of real economy, which will lead to low efficiency of monetary allocation or bubble economy.The relationship between fictitious economy and real economy depende on the money allocation. In the dichotomy of fictitious economy and real economy, a monetary quantity formation is given, which includes fictitious economy and is used to explain the money allocation mechanism. A conclusion is the macro-equilibrium dependes upon the return on assets in two systems, based on which the fictitious economy running has two characters: independence and parasitism.In international circulation of debt economy in US, fictitious economy expanses excessively and real economy fades, which leads to sub-prime mortgage crisis and global financial crisis.By the econometric test, the independent character of fictitious economy is proved by granger causality test using the data by stages, and the impact of money supply on fictitious economy and real economy is estimated by response function. The result shows that the independence intensifies in free economy, and that the change in money supply impacts on both fictitious economy and real economy in short term while in long term this impact will disappear.Fictitious economy running determines the stability of macroeconomy. To deal with the relationship between fictitious economy and real economy correctly, is the key of macroeconomy policy. Firstly, we need to develop the real economy, perfect the structure optimization and upgrading of economy. Secondly, we improve the market mechanism of allocation of money and social resources. Thirdly, we control the money supply and function of money in allocation resources in order to maintain the coordinately development of fictitious economy and real economy.There are three innovations in this paper. First, a model of relationship between fictitious economy and real economy is established in the prospect of monetary income and conclude that the core of the relationship between fictitious economy and real economy is the formation process of monetary income and monetary profit. Second, a monetary formulation in macroeconomic equilibrium is given under the condition of fictitious economy, which explains the monetary allocation mechanism and macroeconomic equilibrium model, and proposes the independence character and parasitism. Third, the independence of fictitious economy intensifies in free economy for U.S., and the change in money supply impacts on both fictitious economy and real economy in short term while in long term this impact will disappear.更多还原