【作者】 任重；

【导师】 陈宗胜；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 政治经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放三十年来,我国经济持续高速增长,国家的经济实力和居民的生活水平发生了历史性巨变,基本实现了由传统的计划经济体制向市场经济体制、由低收入国家向中等收入国家的双重过渡或双重变迁(陈宗胜,1999),创造了举世瞩目的经济奇迹。与此同时,在我国的经济体制改革与经济发展过程中也出现了一些值得重视的结构性问题。一是我国长期以来存在城市偏向的城乡二元教育、医疗体制,城镇居民拥有的教育、医疗公共品从整体上看远大于农村居民,虽然近年来我国城乡教育、医疗公共品供给差距呈现出缩小的趋势,但到目前为止我国仍然存在着巨大的城乡教育、医疗公共品供给差距。二是虽然近年来我国城乡收入差距的边际增幅在下降,但从整体上看改革开放以来我国城乡收入差距在持续扩大。三是虽然改革开放以后我国的二元经济结构呈现出改善的趋势,但到目前为止我国经济仍然存在着明显的二元结构特征。这些结构性问题作为我国经济体制改革与经济发展过程中出现的三个典型事实相互依存、相互关联,对我国当前和未来的经济发展产生复杂而深远的影响。城市偏向的城乡二元教育、医疗体制是一个为了实现建设现代工业化国家、富国强民等善意目标的政府所做出的必然选择。在经济发展水平较低的历史阶段,这一体制在加快实现工业化方面曾经发挥了积极的作用。同时,我国经济体制改革和经济发展的理论与实践又表明:城乡教育、医疗公共品供给对城乡二元经济增长和城乡居民收入水平及其差异产生了重大的影响。我国城乡教育、医疗公共品供给差异导致了城乡人力资本差距和效率差距的扩大,导致了农业部门的资本外逃,抑制了农业剩余劳动力的转移,使再分配政策偏离了以实现社会公平和正义的原则,导致了城乡收入差距的持续扩大。能否及时地改变城市偏向的城乡二元教育、医疗体制并缩小城乡教育、医疗公共品供给差距是关系到我国未来能否加快农村剩余劳动力的转移、能否实现可持续发展、能否顺利建设社会主义新农村和构建社会主义和谐社会的关键问题,也是我国当前经济体制改革和经济发展过程中所面临的亟待解决的重大理论和现实问题。回顾以往的研究,我们可以发现,学者们往往忽视了教育、医疗的外部性,忽视了教育、医疗公共品供给对人力资本形成的影响,没有考虑教育、医疗公共投资的结构性差异及其所导致的经济增长问题的复杂性,无法对发展中国家二元公共品供给与城乡收入差距的动态关系进行合理的解释,也没有通过定量分析来回答各种影响因素特别是城乡教育、医疗公共品供给差异对城乡收入差距的贡献程度到底有多大等问题。本文将以二元经济为背景通过构建一个两部门的增长模型来分析城乡教育、医疗公共品供给与城乡收入差距的动态关系,并测度城乡收入差距对总体收入差距的贡献度及各因素对城乡收入差距的贡献度,进而提出政策建议。本文的创新点主要有三个:一是结合我国改革和发展的现实,本文首次构建了一个两部门模型来分析二元经济条件下教育、医疗公共品供给与城乡收入差距的动态关系。作者基于拉姆齐模型并利用动态规划的方法发现,非农业部门将获得稳定的内生增长路径。由于农业部门的公共品供给受到非农业部门增长和政府政策的外生冲击,所以农业部门难以获得稳定的内生增长路径。回到索洛模型,作者发现农业部门增长率将会向非农部门的稳态增长率收敛,收敛速度与收敛路径将取决于政府公共品税率、农村公共投资比重、初始禀赋等给定的外生变量,提高公共品税率和农村公共投资比重将加快收敛并延缓城乡收入差距的扩大。模型还发现,如果在农业部门公共品供给不足且存在较大的城乡收入差距的初始状态下,政府即使将非农部门产出的某一固定比例进行农业部门公共品投资,城乡收入差距仍然不会自动减小。只有当政府对农业部门施加一个强有力的外生冲击使农业部门公共品充足率超过农村公共品充足率临界点时,农业部门的增长率才能超过非农业部门的增长率,从而导致城乡收入差距缩小。当农业部门获得某个特定的充分大的公共品供给充足率时,均衡处的城乡收入差距将缩小为零并保持不变。二是本文采用全国层面的时间序列并根据VAR模型所特有的动态结构性质,利用脉冲响应函数分别识别了城乡教育、医疗公共品供给差距的扰动是如何通过模型系统而影响到城乡收入差距的;通过对城乡收入差距的预测误差的方差进行分解,确定了造成城乡收入差距波动的各种来源及其各自的强度;利用全国省级数据建立了面板数据模型以分析城乡收入差距与城乡教育差距、医疗差距、投资差距以及城市化之间的长短期关系。实证结果表明,城乡教育公共品供给不均和城乡医疗公共品供给不均是导致城乡收入差距扩大的重要原因。相对于城乡医疗公共品充足率的差距,城乡教育公共品充足率差距对城乡收入差距的影响更大,且城乡教育公共品充足率差距对城乡收入差距的影响存在明显的滞后效应,城乡教育差距的波动构成城乡收入差距的波动的20%以上,且其影响会在相当长的一段时期内持续下去。三是本文首次采用G·Fields分解方法并基于我国省级面板数据测算了中国城乡收入对总体收入差距的贡献程度,发现其贡献度为60%左右。同时,本文首次采用Oaxaca-Blinder均值分解法分析了影响城乡收入差距的因素并分析了教育、医疗公共品差异对城乡收入差距的贡献程度。作者发现,城乡教育差异是影响城乡收入差距的重要因素,其平均直接贡献度为13%;城乡医疗差距对城乡收入差距的影响比较小,其直接贡献度为1%;如果考虑城乡教育、医疗差距与城乡投资差距及二元结构转换的交互作用所带来的间接影响,则城乡教育、医疗差距对城乡收入差距的综合影响可能更大。论文的结构安排如下:第一章为绪论,介绍论文的研究背景、选题意义和研究思路等。第二章为相关文献综述。第三章测度了我国城乡收入差距和二元经济结构,并对我国城乡收入差距和二元经济结构的变动趋势进行了统计性分析,发现了本文的两个典型事实。第四章回顾了我国城乡教育、医疗体制改革的历程,测度了我国城乡教育、医疗公共品供给差距,并分析了其变动趋势,发现了本文的第三个典型事实。第五章在三个典型事实的基础上,归纳了城乡教育、医疗公共品供给对二元经济增长和城乡收入差距的作用机制,并通过一个两部门模型分析了城乡教育、医疗公共品供给差异与城乡收入差距的动态关系。第六章对我国城乡教育、医疗公共品供给差异与城乡收入差距的动态关系进行了实证检验。第七章测度了城乡收入差距对总体收入差距的贡献度,并着重分析了城乡教育公共品供给差异、城乡医疗公共品供给差异对城乡收入差距的贡献度。第八章为简短结论与政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since three decades of reform and opening-up, China’s economy has developed with a high speed, and historical changes have taken place in economic strength and people’s livelihood. China has basically achieved dual-transitions from a planned economic system to a market economy system and from a low-income country to a middle-income country. China has created an economic miracle.Meanwhile, during the process of economic reform and development, China is confronted with some important structrural problems. Firstly, in the long-standing urban-bias system of education and medical treatment, education and health care public goods of urban residents are far than that of rural residents wholely. The gap of urban-rural education and medical public goods has firstly increased and secondly decreased since the economic system reform, however the gap remains huge today. Secondly, although the marginal increase of the urban-rural income gap in China decreases in the recent years, the urban-rural income gap in our country has continued to expand as a whole since 1978. Thirdly, our country’s dual economic structure continued to worsen before the economic system reform. The dual economic structure began to improve after the economic system reform, but till now, dual structure still is an obvious feature of China’s economy.The three typical facts are interdependent and interrelated and affect China’s economic development deeply.The urban-bias system of education and medical treatment is an inevitable choice for a development country with the kind aim such as the industrialization and modernization. At the lower history stage of economic development, the system played an important role in speeding up the industrialization. At the same time the theories and facts show that the urban-bias system of education and health care caused the gap of efficiency and the flight of agriculture capital and the increase of the urban-rural income gap. Reverse the urban-bias system of education and health treatment and reduce the gap of urban-rural education and health care public goods is a crucial problem for our country to transfer of rural surplus labor and to achieve sustainable development, successfully to build a new socialist countryside and to construct a socialist harmonious society. In addition it is a major theoretical and practical issue during the process of economic reform and development.Retrospecting the research, we find that the externality of education and medical treatment and the complexity of dual-economy growth, the effect of education and medical public goods to human capital formation were ignored.Nobody analyzed the dynamic relationships among the gap of urban-rural education public goods, medical public goods and the urban-rural income gap.They did not analyze the contribution degree of all kinds of factors to the urban-rural income gap. Under the background of a dual economy,this paper constructs a model of dual-sectors to analyze the dynamic relationships of the gap of urban-rural education and medical treatment public goods supply and the urban-rural income gap,measures the contribution degree of all kinds of factors and puts forward the policy suggestions.The innovation:Firstly, the author constructs a model of dual-sections to analyze the dynamic relationships of the gap of urban-rural education and medical public goods supply and the urban-rural income gap under the background of dual-economy.With dynamic programming and Ramsey model the author draws a conclusion that non-farm sector will achieve a steady endogenous economic growth and farm sector will not achieve it because of the impact of growth of non-farm sector and policy of government. Back to Solow model, the author finds that the growth rate of farm section will converge to that of non-farm sector. The speed and path will be decided by a few exogenous variables such as initial endowment of farm sector and tax rate of public goods as well as the investment ratio of farm sector public goods. To increase tax rate of public goods and investment ratio of farm sector help to accelerate the convergency and to defer the increase of the urban-rural income gap. The author also finds that the urban-rural income gap never decrease if there are farm sector investment of public goods in the initial condition of the shortage of farm public goods and the huge gap of urban-rural income. Only when the farm sector obtains a strong shock from the government and the adequacy ratio of public goods in agricultural sector is greater than the critical point of the adequacy of rural public goods, the urban-rural income gap will decrease. Especially, when farm sector achieves to the given public goods sufficiency rate, which is large enough, the urban-rural income gap will decrease to zero and remain constant.Secondly, on the base of the national time series and the dynamic property of VAR, the author analyzes how the gap of eduation and medical treatment disturbs the urban-rural income gap with impuls response function method, and analyzes the factors and degree of contribution. Also the author analyzes the relationship between the gap of public goods supply and that of income on basis of panel data of the provinces. The author finds that the gap of public goods supply of education and medical treatment is a main reason to expand the urban-rural income gap. In contrast with the medical treatment gap, the education gap has more great influence on the income gap and has a lagging effect. The fluctuation of the education gap forms 20% of that of the income gap, the influence will last quite a long time.Thirdly, we use G·Fields decomposition method to measure the contribution degree of the urban-rural income gap to the overall income gap with panel data innovatively, and find the contribution degree reaches about 60%. Moreover the author uses Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method to measure the contribution degree of urban-rural education gap, urban-rural medical treatment gap, urban-rural investment and urbanization to the urban-rural income gap innovatively. The author finds that the direct contribution degree of urban-rural education gap exceeds 13% and that of urban-rural medical treatment gap keeps 1%. Their integrative contribution degree will be huge if we add the indirect contribution from the interaction among education public goods supply and medical public goods supply and investment and structure transfer of dual economy.The structure:Chapter One is introduction. This chapter is mainly concentrated on the background, the significance, the methodology, the structure, the innovation and the insufficiency of this dissertation.Chapter Two reviews the literatures.And in Chapter Three, the author measures China’s urban-rural income gap and dual economy and finds two typical facts.In Chapter Four, reviewing the course of the urban-rural education and medical treatment system reform and measuring the gap of urban-rural education and medical treatment public goods, the author finds the third typical facts.In Chapter Five, the author constructs a model of dual-sections to analyze the dynamic relationships of the gap of urban-rural education and medical treatment public goods and the urban-rural income gap under the background of dual-economy.In Chapter Six, the author uses empirical analysis to test the theory with time series of the whole country and panel data of the provinces.In Chapter Seven, the author uses G·Fields decomposition method to measure the contribution degree of the urban-rural income gap to the overall income gap and uses Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method to measure the contribution degree of urban-rural education gap and urban-rural medical treatment and urban-rural investment and urbanization to the urban-rural income gap.The last chapter is conclusion and suggestions of my thesis.更多还原