经济虚拟化条件下的货币能量功能与政策含义

【作者】 张云；

【导师】 刘骏民；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 西方经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 在新古典的传统经典理论——货币数量学说中,货币仅仅是交易的媒介,从长期来看它对经济过程没有影响,无论是价格决定还是利润和利息决定都与货币数量无关,它们是效用和边际生产力等实际变量决定的,货币被视为中性的,经济学家将货币仅仅看作是交换的媒介;凯恩斯理论的诞生对货币数量理论提出了挑战,其将货币市场与商品市场相互联系起来,认为货币在实际经济的运行中发挥作用,他认为货币不仅仅是一种交易媒介,而且是价值储藏手段,是一种流动性资产,需要进入广泛的资产选择之中,货币不再是中性的,它的多少会影响利息率,进而影响消费和投资,从而影响总需求和整个经济过程;后来弗里德曼专门研究了货币存量对经济周期的影响,其通过对美国和国际历史数据的整理和分析,证明了在“一段时期”内“货币至关重要”这样一个基本理念。这就是对货币功能理解的主流分析理论。本文认为在既有的理论框架中,对货币功能的重要性过于低估了,实际上就经济学的经典教科书而言,不仅微观经济学中没有货币的位置,在宏观经济学和国际经济学中涉及货币及汇率政策的场合,货币都是作为一个外在物存在的,其本身并非整个“生产过程”的一部分,乃至在认为“唯有货币是重要的”货币主义首领弗里德曼看来,货币至多在短期能够对生产过程施加一些影响,而长期来看货币是中性的。然而套用泰勒的说法“这与我们所处的当代经济是‘货币经济’的现实状况明显不符”。本文认为货币基础理论的困难与争论的根源在很大程度上是来自对货币功能的理解。本文在梳理货币功能演变的研究文献中发现,对货币功能的强调方面实际上是随着经济运行方式以及结构的变迁而变化。故本文基于货币虚拟化和经济虚拟化的背景,突出表现为在经济虚拟化这一新经济运行状态下,提出货币嬗变为一种能量,其为经济系统各经济主体的活动提供动能,货币能量推动着当代经济的核心——虚拟经济以及全球经济的高速运转。货币是一种经济能量,对任何经济领域,当货币大量流入的时候就繁荣(尽管这种繁荣可能完全是虚拟的),流出的时候就萧条。文章在逻辑上首先分析了货币能量功能嬗变的背景——货币虚拟化与经济虚拟化,在此部分主要是通过数据论证经济虚拟化,并不涉及经济虚拟化转变的原因和机制;进而本文在详细分析美国经济虚拟化发展演变的过程以及机制基础上得出货币在当代经济中是一种能量的结论,正是美元这种国际本位货币的能量功能刺激导致了美国的经济虚拟化发展;进而文章在货币能量功能经验分析的基础上继续展开,因为阐述货币能量除了从经验角度进行分析外,还必须从理论层面上具体分析货币的能量功能,故本文从货币能量对经济虚拟化能量公式的作用,以及货币能量支撑新经济运行方式(实质上就是经济虚拟化程度较高的经济体如美国的经济运行方式)的简化模型进行了深入分析,从理论角度深度阐述了货币能量的功能,然后文章进一步从货币能量功能的内涵、货币能量的注入以及货币能量的流动与循环问题考察了货币能量功能,至此货币能量功能的核心理论部分基本分析完毕。为了进一步加深对货币能量功能的理解,文章从货币能量导致美国杠杆活动泛化以及分析美国在救助危机中注入大量货币能量而没有效果等方面进行了考察,指出经济虚拟化条件下的货币能量功能发挥与货币的正常运行紧密联系在一起,当前救助措施之所以没有作用就是因为建立在美国私营信用基础之上的货币能量运动以及收入创造基本停滞。在对货币能量功能理论分析完毕之后,文章最后从实践角度提出了货币能量功能视角对宏观调控政策的启示:第一,从当代国际本位货币配置全球资源的能量功能提出要积极推进人民币国际化,谋求人民币的能量功能,本文具体分析了人民币国际化的基础条件、必要性和机遇以及面临的风险和解决途径;第二,在能量功能视角下,货币流就是经济系统中的能量流,其流向和流量决定着经济各个领域中名义经济变量的兴衰,也在一定程度上决定着虚拟经济的兴衰和实体经济的兴衰,所以完善现有国民经济核算体系中的货币流量分析方法,观测、监控乃至调控实体经济和虚拟经济之间以及虚拟经济各市场内部之间的货币流量和流向,揭示风险的产生、放大以及传播的机制,具有重要的实践意义,文章具体讨论和拓展了货币流量的投入产出表分析方法以及介绍了货币流量分析方法的最终目标——建立基于交易量的“全象资金流量观测系统”。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the traditional Neo-classical theory——the quantity theory of money, money is justonly a medium for transactions,in the long run it does not affect the real economic process, the determination of prices, profits or interest has nothing to do with the number of money.They are all decided by real variables such as marginal utility and marginal productivity,money is regarded as neutral and it is just the medium of exchange vehicle regarded by economists;The birth of Keynesian theory posed a challenge to the quantity theory of money,which connect money market with commodity market,he points out that money plays an important role in the process of real economy and money is not only a medium for transactions.Money is a store of value and current assets, it needs to enter into a wide section of financial assets . In Keynesian theory the money is no longer neutral,the quantity of money will affect interest rates and then influences consumption and investment,thus affect aggregate demand and the whole economic process.Following later Friedman enhanced the money stock’s impact on real economic cycles.Through the sorting and analysis of the U.S. and international monetary historical data,he proved the basic concept that "in a period of time money is essential,it matters with real economy".This is the mainstream analysis on the function of money in literature.In this paper we point out that in the existing frame theory ,the importance of money’s function has been greatly underestimated.In fact in the classical textbooks on economics,there is no position for money in the Microeconomics,even in the Macroeconomics and international economics on the occasion dealing with monetary and exchange rate policy,money is treated as an external object and it is not one part of the whole "real production process".Even in the view of the head of monetarism Friedman who confirms that "Only money is important", money is able to exert influence on the production process at most in short terms, but it is still neutral in long terms.However applying with Taylor’s argument, "This is not consistent with our current money economy ".We think that the difficulties and controversies in the basic theory roots in the understanding of the money function . Through the study of money’s function changeness the paper finds out that the emphasis on the function of money is actually changed with the change of economic’s run mode and structure. So on the basis of the money’s fictitiousness and economic’s fictitiousness ,mainly we refer that in the new economic states of economic’s fictitiousness ,we point out the money has evolued into an energy,which gives economic entities in the economic system with energy.The money’s energypromotes the high-speed circulation of the contemporary economy——the fictitiouseconomy and the global economy.Money is an energy in today’s economy, for any economic area when there is a large inflow of money,the prosperity appears(though this may be entirely virtual prosperity),otherwise the depression appears when there is a large outflow of money.In this article we firstly analyze the background of the evolution of the money’senergy function——the money’s fictitiousness and economic’s fictitiousness,in thispart we mainly analyze the economic’s fictitiousness through data,we don’t discuss the cause and the mechanism of the economy’s fictitiousness. Then on the basis of the analysis of the process and mechanism of U.S. Economic’s fictitiousness,we come to an conclusion that in the contemporary economy money is an energy,it is just the dollar’s role of international money that stimulates the development of American economic’s fictitiousness. And then on the basis of the money’s energy function empirical analysis ,the paper continues discussing.Besides the aspect of experience,we have to analyze the energy function of money in the aspect of theory. Therefore we deeply ananlyse the monetary’s energy effect through the economic’s fictitiousness energy formula and use a simplified model of new economic operation (In fact, a higher degree of economic’s fictitiousness like the United States )to discuss money’s energy.Then from the depth of the theoretical point of view,we discuss the function of money’s energy.After that we further review the function of money’s energy from the aspect of the content ,the injection ,the flow and the cycle of the currency energy.Until that the basic analysis of the core theory of money’s energy has come to an end.In order to further deeps the understanding of the functions of money’s energy,we discuss from many aspects such as the currency energy’s affection on American’s leverage activity and American’s injection of a large number of money energy without the effect of relaxing crisis.And we point out that under the condition of economic’s fictitiousness the money’s energy closely ties to its normal circulation,the main reason for the failure of government’s policy is that the money’s energy movement and the creation of income which establish on the basis of American private credit has almost stopped.After the theoretical analysis on the money’s energy,finally from the aspect of practice paper points out the money’s energy affect on macrocontrol policies:firstly from the contemporary international money’s energy function which allocate the global real resources, we propose to actively promote he RMB’s internationalization and seek RMB’s energy function.In this paper we pose detailed analysis on the basic conditions,the needs ,the opportunities,the risks and the solution on the process of RMB’s Internationalization;Secondly from the money’s energy functional perspective, money flow is the energy flow in the economic system ,whose direction and flow decides nominal economic variables in all areas of economy and it also affects the relationship between fictitious economy and real economy to some extent.Therefore there is great practical significance to improve the flow of funds analysis in the existing national accounting system .We should observe ,monitor and even control the direction and flow of the money between the real economy and fictitious economy and between every maket of the fictitious economy to reveal the mechanism of the risk’s emergence,enlargement and circulation. We specifically discuss and expand the analytical method of the money flow through input-output analysis and introduce the method’s ultimate goal—the establishment of "the whole money flows observing system"更多还原