转型期中国地下经济的评估与治理

【作者】 王永兴；

【导师】 景维民；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 政治经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 地下经济是处于国家正式统计和监管以外的各种经济活动的总称,随着我国经济转型进程的不断推进,地下经济已经发展成为一种不可忽视的潜在力量,对我国社会生活的各个方面都产生了越来越深远的影响。实践的发展对理论提出了更高的要求,然而由于地下经济自身所具有的复杂性和隐蔽性特征,这一问题在很长时间内并没有引起政界和学界的足够重视,进而导致相关研究的广度和深度均严重落后于实践发展的需要。因此,对地下经济问题进行深入研究既是加强我国在这一领域学术研究水平的需要,也是指导和提高地下经济治理能力的客观要求。有鉴于此,本文首先对国内外相关领域的重要研究成果进行了详细的梳理和总结。以此为基础,作者对我国地下经济的形成机制、实际规模、区域分布、实际影响及其治理等诸多领域进行了全面的考察,初步构建并形成了一个比较完整的地下经济研究体系。首先,本文按照从一般到特殊的顺序对地下经济的生成机制进行了全方位的探讨。具体而言,本文首先从税负、制度真空、全球化、虚拟化、腐败等方面讨论了地下经济产生的一般原因;同时本文通过价格双轨制、国企改革、组织结构、非正规就业、房地产市场等五个方面对我国地下经济产生的特殊原因进行了分析。此外,本文对地下经济研究的理论基础进行了初步探索,指出研究地下经济理论的一个中短期目标就是尽可能挖掘不同经济理论流派相关理论工具对地下经济现象的解释能力,从而为最终形成一个比较完善的地下经济理论奠定基础。其次,本文使用一般现金比率模型、收支差异模型、实物投入模型和多指标多因素模型对我国改革开放三十年的总体地下经济规模变化情况进行了实证估测,形成了对我国地下经济发展情况的直观量化认识。在估测过程中作者着重结合我国的实际情况对不同模型的假设条件、局限性、在我国的适用性等重要问题进行了详细论述,通过必要的修正提高了模型的解释能力。再次,本文全面考察了地下经济对我国经济和社会发展的双重影响。作者指出地下经济对政策制定、社会结构、市场机制、经济安全、社会福利等方面均会产生不利影响。与此同时,本文也就地下经济的部分有益影响进行了初步探索,这一认识有助于更全面的理解地下经济的性质。此外,本文还对地下经济发展的区域与国际发展情况进行了初步探索。区域经济的协调发展对大国而言至关重要,本文的研究在一定程度上弥补了现有区域研究忽略地下经济问题的局限。通过对其它国家地下经济的考察,提高了对地下经济复杂性的认识,为治理地下经济提供了可供借鉴的经验。最后,在以上研究的基础上,针对当前国内外理论界对如何治理地下经济尚缺乏系统性和理论性探索的问题,本文尝试把地下经济的治理统一纳入到一个新的协调机制理论框架进行探讨,为治理我国地下经济问题提供了一些新的恩路。更多还原

【Abstract】 The term "underground economy" is used to refer to those activities which hide from government’ s monitor. Nowdays, the underground economy has already became an important and latent power, which has profound impacts on almost all aspects of the society. The facts force us to develop a more proper theory to solve, however, the experts and government do not pay enough attention to this phenomenon partly because of its complex and hidden characters. The research level on this issue can’ t satisfy the requirement of guiding the process of economic transition. Under such circumstances, the research of underground economy plays significance role not only in enhancing academic level of this field,but also in the real sustainable development of economy.For the above reasons, this paper at first reviewed and summarized major research results in this field. Based on this, the author did comprehensive investigation of the underground economy, including its formation mechanism, its actual size, characters of its regional distribution and real impact on real economy etc. The thesis took the first steps in constructing an integrated framework of the underground economy research.Firstly, this paper discussed the formation mechanism from general causes to specific ones and got a series of conclusions: (1) The tax burdern, institutional vacuity, globalization and corruption are general causes which induce underground economy. (2) The dual-track of price, reform of state-owned enterprises, organization structure, the unofficial employement, and real estate market are specific causes for china. In addition, this paper explored the theoretical foundation in the research of underground economy research also and pointed out that our short term goal is aiming at finding the explanation power of theoretical tools from different school about this phenomenon, so that we can lay the foundation of better developed underground economy theory.Secondly, this article estimated the real size of underground economy in china during the past 30 years by using general currency model, income-expenditure model, physical input model and multiple indicators multiple casuses(MIMIC) model. By applyng the above models, the author emphasized the hypothesis and limitation of those models, and then tried to modify them to improve the explanation power of models.Thirdly, the thesis all-sidedly investigated the dual impacts of underground economy on economic and social developemt of china. The author find out that underground economy will exert adversely effects on policymaking, social structure, market system, economic security and social welfare. Meanwhile, this study also tentatively discussed some positive influences, and this can help us understanding the characters of underground economy more deeply.Besides, this paper made an effort to study of the regional distribution in china. The coordination of regional economy is a crucial problem for a big country like china; This paper tried to cover gaps in the ignorance of underground economy in regional study. The international comparative analysis to the underground economy provided opportunities to enhance our understanding about its complexity and constructive experiences about its regulation.Finally, basing on all the above researches, this article tried to build a new integrated theoretical framework to resolve the regulation puzzle of underground economy and conduct new thoughts for the field of underground economy research.更多还原