中国企业跨国经营风险预警的理论与实证研究

【作者】 韦军亮；

【导师】 陈漓高；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 世界经济， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 1990年代后期,特别是2001年以来,在“走出去”战略的推动下,中国企业跨国经营发展迅速,尤其是对外直接投资和对外承包工程。跨国经营已成为中国企业,特别是具有国际比较优势的企业做大做强的重要战略选择,也成为中国外向型经济进一步发展的主要方面。然而,迄今为止,中国企业跨国经营的绩效总体而言仍有待提高,跨国经营风险管理不够完善已成为制约中国企业跨国经营业绩改善的重要因素,其中,风险预警的缺失或不完善尤其突出。在国际化经营道路上,如何有效地管理风险,特别是对潜在风险进行预警,是中国企业走出去过程中亟待解决的重大理论问题和现实挑战。本文正是基于对中国企业跨国经营风险预警状况的回应,从理论和实证方面对这一问题进行了探讨。与仅在国内经营的企业相比,跨国经营企业由于经营环境的异质性和多元性,因而面临着一些独有的风险,如政治风险、外汇风险和文化风险等等,在对这些风险进行预警管理过程中,会遇到信息搜集困难、海外分/子公司的道德风险、非经济因素影响突出等困难。除此之外,中国社会主义市场经济仍处于不断完善之中的现状决定了治理风险是中国企业跨国经营面临的最大风险,国有企业尤为突出;整体而言,绝大多数境外中资企业尚未建立有效的风险管理体系,风险管理水平普遍较低,企业战略与风险管理脱节严重现象广泛存在,风险管理以事后控制为主,缺乏主动性。在某种意义上,许多从事跨国经营的中资企业基本上未进行过系统的风险预警尝试。总之,中国企业跨国经营风险预警形势逼人。在理论上,风险预警与风险管理之间存在包含和被包含关系,风险预警和风险预警系统本身就是风险管理和风险管理系统的一部分。因此,出于与风险管理其他子系统功能上的互补,风险预警在本质上被定义为“报警器”,其核心功能在于以最有利于企业的方式,发送风险警报,并对相应的风险管理活动或措施提供必要的信息支持。已有的风险预警研究过于重视实证模型的建立,而忽视相应的理论分析,缺乏对定性指标的考虑,总体而言,预警能力不够理想。因此,加强对风险预警的理论研究,改善已有的风险预警模型,对于推进风险预警研究具有重大意义。中国企业规模较大的跨国经营是一个新的经济现象,中国特殊的国情使得中国企业跨国经营风险预警的重要性更显突出。系统论,以及开放的复杂巨系统(开放复杂巨系统)理论理论为中国企业跨国经营风险预警系统(EWSR)的构建和运作提供基本的方法论指南和思考方向。EWSR属于世界经济/全球经济开放复杂巨系统等级次序中的第七层。开放复杂巨系统强调系统与其周边环境之间的物质和信息的交流和互动对于开放复杂巨系统的正常运转具有实质性作用。在这一框架下,文章从多个角度讨论了中国企业跨国经营EWSR的内部结构,这些结构包括功能结构和模块结构。从信息论的角度来看,EWSR是一个系统自身的内循环和系统与环境之间的外循环相互作用的双循环嵌套结构。与简单的单向通信系统相比,EWSR具有信息交流的双向性、编/译码的多环节性,以及噪声干扰的国际化和复杂化等特点。在此基础上,文章构建了EWSR的组织框架,并讨论了其正常运转的前提和外部条件,即高层的积极参与和默契的部门协调。为此,文章专门讨论了EWSR与其他部门之间的沟通和协调的问题,提出了需要沟通和协调的对象、沟通机制设计的原则及其高效运作的条件。在一个更大的框架中,文章还讨论了中国政府、行业协会、监管部门和专业组织在协助企业EWSR顺利运行方面可以发挥的作用。预警指标体系和模型是EWSR中的技术环节,但仅仅是其中的一个环节。模型输出结果必须经过EWSR专家组的分析讨论和解读才能成为预警报告的一部分,而不能直接作为最终的预警结论。预警指标体系的设计必须遵循三大原则,即全面性/相关性原则、代表性原则和可操作性原则。在预警模型的遴选方面,要遵循理论导向,兼顾数据的原则,完整的预警模型应当坚持从定量模型模块——综合模块——预警结论的流程,可以考虑多个预警模型同时使用的可能性。EWSR的建立是为了促进企业自身战略或目的的实现,因此,EWSR的建立应当遵循成本-收益原则,但是EWSR本身的成本收益结构和内容非常复杂,这也成为妨碍EWSR建立或有效发挥作用的一个重要因素。作为技术分析的继续,第五章以外汇风险为例,提出了基于时间框架的风险预警信号模型,研究显示,该模型的具有一定的样本外预警能力,但具有明显的国别差异。本文的重要创新在于:系统地对中国企业跨国经营风险预警问题进行了深入、细致、全面的理论探讨,从而大大推进了这一领域的研究;开创性地使用系统论,特别是复杂巨系统理论和信息论探讨企业跨国经营风险预警问题;在预警方法上,以中国企业跨国经营外汇风险的预警为例,提出了基于时间框架的信号模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the late 1990s, especially 2001, the international operation (IO) of China’s firms advances quickly, particularly in outward foreign direct investment and foreign engineering projects. International operation has been the significant strategic choice of China’s firms, especially ones with international comparative advantage trying to improve on themselves, and the main aspect of further advancement of China’s foreign oriented economy. So far, however, the performance of China’s firms’ IO still remains to improve on the whole, and the imperfectness of risk management of IO has already been one of the chief factors impacting the performance negatively, in which the lack or imperfectness of early warning of risk (EWR) stands out strikingly. When going abroad, it has been the critical theoretic problem of and practical challenge to China’s enterprises how to manage risk effectively, especially how to early warn the latent risks. As a response to the risk management status quo of China’s firms going abroad, the dissertation dwells on it theoretically and empirically.Different from the companies operating just at home, the firms of IO face some distinct risks, such as political risk, foreign exchange risk, and cultural risk because of the variance, plurality of operational environment, and meet the difficulty of information search, normal risk of overseas branches or subsidiaries, and the dramatic effects of non-economic factors in EWR. Besides, the fact that China’s market economy still remains under everincreasing improvement, principle-agent risk constitutes the most serous risk of China’s firms of IO, especially to state-owned enterprises. The great majority of overseas China’s companies have still not set up an effective risk management system: the level of risk management appears low at large, the severe disjunction of risk management and corporate strategy remains extensively, risk management is backward oriented, so is inactive. To some degree, lots of China’s corporations have never tried to do systematic EWR. To sum up, the risk-management status quo of China’s firms of IO is pressing much.In theory, there is a relationship of including and being included between early warning of risk and risk management, and the early warning system of risk (EWSR) itself is part of the risk management system. Therefore, as the compliment to the other sub-systems functionally, EWRS is defined as an "alarm bell" in essence, and its kernel function lays in giving alarms of risk in the form most beneficial to firms, and supplying the necessary information support for the relevant risk management acts or measures. The existent studies of EWR overemphasize the establishment of empirical models, and disregard the related theoretic analysis and lack of the inclusion of qualitative indicators. As a result, the capacity of early warning is imperfect as a whole. Hence, it has the chief implication for improving the research of EWR to strengthen the theoretic study of early warning of risk, and better off the existent models of EWR.The large-scale international operation of China’s firms is a new economic phenomenon, China’s distinct situation makes EWR for China’s firms of IO extremely outstanding. System theory, and theory of open complex giant system lends the basic approaches to the construction and operation of EWSR of IO of China’s firms. EWSR resides on the seventh floor of open complex giant system of world economy or global economy. The fact that the theory of open complex giant system stresses the communication and interaction of substance and information between the system itself and its surrounding environment has the significant impact on the normal operation of open complex giant system. Within the frame, the paper talks on the inner structure of EWSR of IO of China’s firms, both functional and modular.In the point of information theory, EWSR is a nested frame with two circulations, the inner one of itself and the outer one of the system and the environment interacting each other. In contrast to the simple one-way communication system, EWSR of IO is two-way, has many chains of encoding and decoding, and disturbance of white noise is international and complicated. Based upon this, the essay constructs the organizational structure of EWSR and probes into the prerequisites and outer condition, that is, the vigorous participation of executives and the excellent coordination across branches. Therefore, the dissertation especially inquires into the communication and coordination between EWSR and the other branches, presents the objects needed to communicate and coordinate with, the principles of communication mechanism planning and the premises of efficient operation. Within a more macro frame, the paper investigates the effects of China’s government, industrious associations, regulating bureaus, and specialized organizations in helping firms’ EWSR work well.Early warning indicators system and models concerned is the technological parts of EWSR, but just one part. The output of models cannot be a part of final EWR reports directly, instead, have to be analyzed and explained by EWSR panels of experts before. The planning of early warning indicators system must follow three rules, comprehensiveness/relevance, representativeness, and maneuverability. Singling out the early warning models have to observe the rule of theory orientation with data considered, complete models should stick to the process of quantitative model-composite modular-early warning conclusion, and consider the possibility of using various models meanwhile.The establishment of EWSR is to promote the realization of corporate own strategy or aims, so must follow the cost-benefit principle, but the structure and content of EWSR’s cost and benefit are so complex that prevents the setup or operating well of itself.As the further of technological study, Chapter Five takes foreign exchange risk as example, raises the signal model bused on the temporal frame. The empirical research shows, the model has certain out-of-sample capacity of early warning, but with obvious national difference.The main contributions of the dissertation lay in: systematically probing theoretically into the early warning problems of IO of China’s firms deeply, carefully, and comprehensively, and advancing the study in the area strikingly; trying to use system theory, especially theory of open complex giant system, and information theory to dwell on the early warning of firms’ international operation; in the aspect of approach, by taking the research of early warning of foreign exchange risk of China’s firms’ IO, raising the signal model based on the temporal frame.更多还原