垄断竞争产业升级研究

【作者】 戴群；

【导师】 唐杰；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 政治经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 自1978年改革开放以来,我国社会主义建设取得了举世瞩目的伟大成就,2008年我国GDP达到300670亿元人民币,按照美元人民币汇率6.85计算,合计美元4.4万亿,经济总量超过德国成为世界第三大经济体。经济增长的过程也是产业结构持续升级的过程。改革开放的这30年,按照比较优势理论,通过充分发挥劳动力丰裕资源禀赋,大力发展劳动密集型的外向型加工工业,我国初步实现了工业化,成为事实上的制造业大国。随着经济的增长,产业结构正在加快从简单劳动密集型产品向资本技术密集型产品和自有品牌和自主研发型产品的转变。然而根据现有理论,如果长期依赖比较优势发展经济,将不断强化我国在全球分工中的低端地位,导致贸易条件恶化,拉大与发达国家的差距,陷入比较优势陷阱之中。静态的比较优势理论或是以人均资本或人力资本增长为基础的动态比较优势理论都不能解释包括日本和韩国在内的一些曾经的发展中国家在较短的时间内实现的对发达国家赶超。早在百多年前,马歇尔就认识到产业集聚的外部性之一是形成了专业化劳动力的区域集中,这说明各个地区的劳动力是存在差异性的。正是因为专业化劳动力的差异性,使得发展中国家即使在整体处于资本和人力资本比较劣势的情况下,仍然可以在局部领域形成对发达国家专业化劳动力的比较优势,促使发展中国家的产业结构向技术和智力密集型的产品转变,并最终改善发展中国家的全球分工地位。但HO要素禀赋理论和内生增长理论均未能区分劳动力或技能劳动力的差异性,因此经验研究往往不能证明两者相结合的动态比较理论对经济增长解释的有效性。信息技术革命推动了以全球化为特征的新经济的发展,高新技术产业成为新经济时代最具代表性的产业,作为知识载体的专业化劳动力成为新经济下最核心的生产要素禀赋,其差异性决定了市场结构向以垄断竞争为主的产业组织形式的转变。本论文通过将比较优势理论、内生增长理论和空间经济学理论相结合,发展了以专业化劳动力及其差异性为基础的三个数学模型,尝试用动态专业化劳动力比较优势来说明发展中国家向技术和知识密集型产业升级的可能和路径。第一章为导论,提出了本论文要研究的问题,即中国是否只能按照雁行理论跟在发达国家的后面发展经济,还是也能成为雁阵中的头雁?然后介绍本论文的研究方法,并对论文研究内容进行简要地概括,指出本论文的创新点和不足。第二章对开放型产业结构理论进行了综述,指出现有理论不能得到发展中国家有可能成为头雁的推论。在第三章中我们建立了内生专业化劳动力增长和产业升级模型,论证了(1)经济增长与专业化劳动力种类和数量增长成正比。专业化劳动力的种类数通过研究开发来增加,因此各地区的专业化劳动力存在差异性。在开放条件下,研究开发的成本与专业化劳动力工资率成正比,与种类数成反比,这样与发达国家相比,发展中国家在某些领域进行研究开发更加有利,存在专业化劳动力比较优势。(2)知识外溢的空间限制,可以被解释为作为知识载体的专业化劳动力的跨区域转移存在成本,并成为产业集聚的原因。(3)高级产业是那些具有更高规模经济性的产业,低级产业的规模经济性较小,高级产业集聚的同时,低级产业会发生扩散,产业结构在这个过程中实现升级。第四章论证了由于专业化劳动力成为新经济时代的核心生产要素禀赋,垄断竞争的市场结构就成为新经济时代最主要的产业组织形式。第五章通过对仍处在发展时期的日本、韩国和中国通过在细分市场形成专业化劳动力比较优势,建立在该市场上的全球领先地位的案例,印证了内生专业化劳动力增长模型。第六章,通过对深圳产业升级的路径,印证了区域内生产业升级模型。第七章论述了开放条件下产业升级的阶段性,指出发展中国家的产业升级过程依赖专业化劳动力的积累和本地的分工深化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and open policy conducted in year 1978, China has achieved grand success of socialist construction. Our GDP in year 2008 reached RMB30 trillion or USD4.4 trillion at exchange rate 6.85.Economic growth is always accompanied by industrial upgrading. By following comparative advantage theories, to take advantage of abundant labor factor endowment, China has been focusing on developing labor intensive exported industries for 30 years so that China has primarily carried out industrialization and becomes one of major countries of Manufacturing Industries. When economy is growing, industrial structure accelerates its changes from simple labor intensive products to capital intensive and technology intensive products even OBM and ODM products. However if the economic growth had been always based on labor comparative advantages, China would have been maintained at lower end of international division, the condition of international trades would have become worse, the economy would have fell into comparative advantage trap.Static comparative theories or those dynamic comparative theories based on the accumulation of capital or human capital are not able to explain the facts that Japan or Korea, when they were still developing, caught up with and finally surpassed those developed countries in a short period. A hundred years ago, Alfred Marshall already identified that one of externalities of industrial agglomeration is to form a specialized labor pool in the region. Thus specialized labors are different among regions. It’s because of the differentiation of specialized labors, developing countries are able to establish specialized labors comparative advantages in part of high-tech industries and accelerate the changes toward technology intensive products and acknowledge intensive products industrial structure, even if the general human capital were still poor comparing with that in developed countries. The reason why empirical studies often failed to prove the effectiveness of endogenous theories on economic growth explanation is because both HO factor endowment theory and endogenous growth theories all treat labors or specialized labors same..Information Technology Reforms have been pushing the development of new economy, which is well known by globalization. High-tech industries are the most representative industries in new economy. As the carriers of acknowledge, specialized labors become the key factor endowment. Its differentiation makes the industrial organization, in which Monopolistic competition performs the major market structure.Through combining the spirits of comparative competition theories, endogenous growth theories and spatial economy theories, the dissertation develops three mathematic models on specialized labors and its differentiation so that the dissertation is able to use dynamic specialized labor comparative advantages to illustrate the possibilities and paths of industrial upgrading towards technology intensive and acknowledge intensive products manufacturing in developing countries.In Chapter 1, the subject we are going to discuss in this dissertation is raised, that is, according to flying geese theory whether China can only follow the leading goose or also be able to become the leading goose to develop economy. Then we introduce the methods of the researchs, the contents, the innovative points and the points to be completed. In Chapter 2, we review the opening industrial structure theories and claim that existing theories can’t conclude a method by which developing countries might become leading goose. In Chapter 3, endogenous specialized labor growth and endogenous industrial upgrading models are established to prove: a) Economic growth is proportional to the kinds and quantity of specialized labors. R&D is the way to increase the kinds of specialized labors, thus the specialized labors are different among areas. In opening condition, the cost of R&D is proportional to the wages of specialized labors, but is inversely proportional to the kinds of specialized labors. In view of lower wages in developing countries, R&D might be more attractive in developing countries comparing with that in developed countries. b) The spatial restriction of acknowledge spill-out could be explained by the immigration cost of specialized labors, which is also the reason why agglomeration occurs. c) Industrial upgrading is the process of high-end industries agglomerating and low-end industries spreading out. In Capter 4, we prove that monopolistic competition performs the major market structure in new economy era in view of specialized labors becoming the key factor endowment. In Capter 5, 3 cases from Japan, Korea and China are used to prove the endogenous specialized labors growth model. Through market segmentation and the technology progress, these countries could lock a target niche market, in which R&D was adopted to establish specialized labor comparative advantage and finally secured a leading position globally, when they were still developing. In Capter 6, the Shenzhen case is used to prove the endogenous industrial upgrading model. Finally in Chapter 7, we discourse the industrial upgrading stages of developing countries in opening policy and argue that the stage of industrial upgrading relys on the accumulation of specialized labors and the stage of labors division.更多还原