国际经济周期波动对我国经济体系的影响

【作者】 张鹏；

【导师】 柳欣；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 经济思想史， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 经济周期波动的传导机制研究在宏观经济学中占有很重要的地位,不同的理论基于不同的假定,得出的结论也不同,有强调投资重要性的,也有强调货币重要性的。总之,不同的理论认为经济周期波动的根源不同,因此其认为经济周期波动的传导机制的路径也不同。在以往的经济周期波动的传导机制理论研究中,都是在一国情况下进行的,而相对较少的考虑外部因素所造成的冲击,尤其是国际贸易、外商直接投资等因素。虽然也有部分理论涉及此因素,但是并没有把其作为经济周期波动的重要因素。随着经济全球化的发展,不同国家之间的贸易往来和资本流动日益频繁,使得这些因素在经济周期波动中的作用越来越重要。当一个大国产生经济波动后,会通过国际贸易以及资本流动等因素影响到其他国家经济的稳定性。尤其从美国的“次债危机”事件可以看出,各国经济联系十分紧密。当美国发生经济波动后,由于世界其他国家和美国经济有较强联系,造成了美国经济危机向其他国家进行扩散,并通过这些国家逐步地传导到一些相对较小的国家,并造成了全球性的经济波动。全球性的经济波动现象预示着国际经济周期波动需要一定的媒介,而这正是国际经济周期波动的传导机制。通过这种机制,使得美国经济波动逐步地向全球其他国家扩散。因此国际经济周期波动的传导机制研究具有很重要的意义。从国际经济学的角度来看,联系各国经济的桥梁是国际贸易、外商直接投资以及各国的外汇储备资产。虽然有很多学者对此问题展开了研究,但是此方面的研究依旧是尚待解决的难题。本文从国际贸易、外商直接投资以及外汇储备资产的角度来分析国际经济周期波动的传导机制,这对我国宏观经济政策的制定具有很深远的意义。从理论上研究国际经济波动的传导机制,可以较好的为我国制定“熨平”经济周期波动的策略,至少可以在很大程度上减轻其他国家经济波动对中国经济增长所产生的负面影响。国际贸易在国际经济周期波动的传导过程中,可以影响到一国的进出口部门,进而影响到一国的经济稳定,尤其是对于一些出口导向型的发展中国家。这些国家依靠国际贸易拉动本国的经济增长以及居民就业和收入的增长。从国际贸易对本国经济增长的影响来看,国际贸易是联系国家之间产品市场的桥梁,当一国出口发生波动后,会直接影响到本国的经济增长,进而影响到本国的就业和居民的收入稳定性。对于发展中国家来说,大部分人员就业于第二产业和第三产业,当出口产生波动后,会影响到企业雇佣人员数量,进而影响到其雇佣人员的收入水平。当出口部门的就业和居民收入发生波动后,会通过各种途径影响到其他部门的就业和收入的稳定性,进而使得波动在整体经济体系中扩散开。外商直接投资进入一个国家后,相当于外部注入的一笔投资,可以有效的促进经济增长,并且由于其在本国雇佣人员,可以增加本国的就业量。但是外商直接投资不同于本国的投资,其还具有一定的“溢出效应”。外商直接投资对于发展中国家来说,一般会带来“技术溢出”效应,能促进本国产业的升级,从而更进一步的促进本国的经济增长。同时,外商直接投资还可以促使与之关联的产业投资的增加,并从更广的意义上促进一国的就业。外商直接投资还可以影响到一国国际收支的稳定,由于外商直接投资存在利润回流的情况,虽然外商直接投资进入东道国后会形成一笔投资,但是外商直接投资所获得的利润会汇回到母国公司,当其利润回流量大于流入量时,会影响到东道国的资本和金融项目的稳定,从而影响到东道国经济的外部平衡,进一步影响到东道国经济的稳定性。外汇储备变动对于一国经济波动的影响取决于其持有的外国资产的数量,对于发展中国家来说,由于其实施出口导向型的经济增长政策,造成了这些国家通过国际贸易积累了大量的外汇储备资产。同时由于发展中国家,比如我国施行有管理的浮动汇率政策,使得外汇市场的供需压力不能得到很好的释放,从而迫使中央银行不得不采用冲销等策略来处理积累的大量外汇储备,从而对本国的经济产生影响。从外汇储备对一国经济增长的影响来看,外汇储备的积累相当于一国的储蓄资产,从而能够促进一国的投资,并进一步促进经济增长,尤其是使用中央银行的冲销政策工具后,会增加本国基础货币的投放,更进一步的促进本国的经济增长。但是这种冲销手段也是有成本的,当一国的基础货币投放超过了经济体系中所能容纳的货币数量时,就会产生物价水平的上升,即产生通货膨胀效应,从而影响到经济增长的稳定性。总的来看,当一国产生经济波动后,尤其是世界性的大国产生经济波动后,会通过这三个因素传导到与之联系紧密的其他大国,并逐渐的传导到世界其他国家。更多还原

【Abstract】 The research of business cycle transmission mechanism theory plays an important role in macroeconomic study. Different theories based on different assumptions, the conclusions are also different. Someone stressed the importance of investment, but also the others emphasize the importance of money. In short, different theories consider the root of fluctuations in the economic cycle is different. In this view that the business cycle fluctuations in the path of the transmission mechanisms are also different. In the past, the study of business cycle fluctuations transmission mechanism was in a country circumstance, while a relatively small number of studies have considered the impact of external factors, especially in international trade, foreign direct investment and other factors. Although there is some theory involved in these factors, they do not take them as important factors.With the development of economic globalization, trade and capital flows between different countries become more and more frequently, so that the impact of these factors in the business cycle fluctuations become more and more important. When a dominant country facing economic fluctuations will affect the economic stability of the other countries, through the international trade and capital flows and other factors. Especially from the case of US "sub-prime crisis", we will know the fact that countries are close contact with each other. When the U.S. economy fluctuate, because of the other large countries in the world have a strong contact the U.S. economy, the economic crisis will spread to other countries. The crisis will gradually transfer to some of the relatively small country through these countries, and would result in a global economic fluctuation.Fluctuations in global economic indicate that the international business cycle fluctuations must require a medium, and it means the transmission mechanism of international business cycle. Through this mechanism, the fluctuations in the US economy will gradually spread to the other countries. Wherefore, the he transmission mechanism of international business cycle will be of great importance. From the view of international economics, the economic contact bridges are international trade, foreign direct investment as well as the foreign currency reserve assets. Although a lot of scholars have studied this issue, the research is still pending challenges.This article study the transmission mechanism of international business cycle from the perspective of international trade, foreign direct investment and foreign currency reserve assets, which will be of far-reaching significance to the formulation of macroeconomic policies in China. Through the theoretical study of the transmission mechanism of international business cycle can be better for our country to formulate strategy for the economic cycle fluctuations, at least, this study will alleviate the negative impact of the other countries economic fluctuations to China’s economic growth.The role of international trade in the transmission mechanism of international business cycle is very important for some export-oriented developing countries. The factor will affect a country’s import and export department, thereby affecting a country’s economic stability. These countries rely on trade to boost the country’s economic growth and employment and income growth. In view of the impact of international trade to national economic growth, international trade is the bridge of different countries products markets, when a country’s exports fluctuate, it will directly affect the country’s economic growth, thereby affecting their employment and income stability. For developing countries, the majority of staff employed in the second industry and tertiary industry, when faced with fluctuations in exports, it will affect the number of enterprise employment, thereby affecting their income levels. When the employment and income fluctuate in the export department, it will through various channels affect the stability of employment and income of the other sectors, furthermore, the fluctuations will spread in the overall economy.When foreign direct investment goes in a country, it means the external injection of an investment, and it will effectively promote economic growth and employment in the country. At the same time, it will also increase the volume of the country’s employment. However, foreign direct investment is different form the local investment, which also has a spillover effect. Foreign direct investment for developing countries in general will bring about "technological spillover" effect, and this will promote the upgrading of domestic industries, thus further promoting its economic growth. At the same time, foreign direct investment can also stimulate the investment which is associated to foreign direct investment industrial, and then it will stimulate a country’s employment in a broader sense. Because of foreign direct investment profits reflux, foreign direct investment can also affect a country’s international balance of payments stability. Although foreign direct investment entering the country will form an investment, foreign direct investment profits will be remitted back to the parent company, when its profits back to the parent company is greater than the inflow, it will affect a country’s capital and financial stability, thereby affecting the country’s external balance, thereby affect a country’s economic stability.The impact of changes in foreign exchange reserves on a country’s economy depends on the quantity held by the country, for the developing countries, because of its implementation of export-oriented economic growth policy, have accumulated many foreign currency reserve assets through the international trade. At the same time, because of the developing countries, such as China implements a managed floating exchange rate policy, which causes the stress of supply and demand in foreign exchange market not to be a good release, thus forcing the central bank had to offset the foreign exchange reserves. Thus, the result will have an impact on the economy. In view of the impact of foreign exchange reserves on a country’s economic growth, the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves equivalent to a country’s savings assets, and thus be able to promote a country’s investment and further promote economic growth, especially the use of the central bank’s sterilization policy instrument, it will increase the country’s base money, and further promotes the country’s economic growth. But the policy also has a cost, when a country’s base money invested more than the economy can accommodate, it will raise the price level, which will causes inflation, thereby it will be affect the economic growth stability.Overall, when a country’s economy fluctuates, especially big countries, will impact the world-wide economic fluctuations through these three factors. and gradually transfer to other countries in the world.更多还原