城市增长的时空演进规律研究

【作者】 张志强；

【导师】 江曼琦；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 区域经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 随着工业化与城市化的双重推动,中国城市进入快速发展期,中国城市增长在国民经济增长中的地位越来越高。城市在区域经济发展中,所具有的辐射与带动作用,使它成为链接城乡经济、贯彻“五个统筹”发展战略目标的关键。建国以来,虽然中国城市发展取得了较高的成就,但是一方面关于中国城市如何发展,走什么样的城市化道路,存在较多争论;另一方面,还存在城市群的经济贡献与聚集经济效应偏低、核心城市辐射与带动作用不强等问题,这些争论与问题解决的关键点是对于中国城市增长时空演进特征的准确把握。因此本文以城市增长的时空演进特征作为中国城市增长问题研究的切入点,探索中国城市增长的客观规律。本文沿着“观察-实证-解释-判断”的研究路线,借助于空间计量、非参数计量等方法,分析中国城市增长的时空演进特征。以理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法,探究了中国城市增长的时空演进规律及其形成原因,就各个因素效应进行了实证检验。依据中国城市增长的时空演进特征,对中国城市发展方针进行回顾与评价,并针对城市发展中存在的问题,提出了对策建议。论文由三个部分组成:第一部分引论,包括本文的第一章和第二章。第一章阐述本文选题背景以及理论和现实意义;相关研究的文献综述和本文的研究思路及研究内容。第二章首先界定了本文用到的城市、城市体系、聚集经济、空间收敛等核心概念,其次阐述了本文实证研究方法,如新古典的经济增长收敛性检验、空间计量(Spatial Econometrics)、非参数计量(Nonparametric Econometrics)等方法。第二部分是本文的核心章节,共五章。依据核心章节的内容特点,将其分为上、中、下三篇。上篇,城市增长的时空演进特征。包括第三章和第四章。第三章中国城市人口规模分布演化,在概述中国城市规模分布演化的历史演进基础上,实证检验中国城市规模分布是否满足Zipf法则,Gibrats法则,并以此为基础,借助于空间Lorenz曲线和转移动态(Distribution Dynamic)方法,论证中国城市人口规模分布演化的平行增长特征。第四章中国城市经济增长分布演进,借助于非参数计量学与空间计量学方法,分析中国城市经济增长的平行增长特征、空间聚集特性,并用横截面与空间面板回归方法,实证检验了中国城市经济增长的空间收敛性。中篇,城市增长的时空演进特征形成原因分析。包括本文的第五章和第六章。第五章、中国城市平行增长与城市体系演化的原因分析。首先,在案例分析的基础上,揭示了城市平行增长规律的普遍性,并借助于现有理论模型,解释了其形成原因;其次,分析城市规模分布演化影响因素,并构建了理论分析框架:第三,利用面板数据方法,实证检验中国城市规模分布演化的影响因素,甄别出其中的关键影响因素。第六章、中国城市经济增长空间聚集的原因分析。首先梳理和总结聚集经济的一般理论;其次,分析聚集经济促进经济增长的机制,在此基础上实证检验聚集经济的城市增长效应;最后,以天津滨海新区为案例,探究城市聚集经济的影响因素,识别出哪些因素是影响聚集经济的主导因素。下篇,政策启示篇。包括本文的第七章。以本文得到中国城市增长时空演进规律为参照,对中国城市发展方针进行回顾与评价。在此基础上,针对目前中国城市发展中存在的城市群经济贡献与聚集效应不强、城市群核心城市经济贡献偏低、大中小不同规模城市的规模结构有待于改善、城市发展的政策偏向显著等问题,提出了对策建议,即以城市内产业为依托,发挥聚集经济的作用;促进形成按城市经济功能导向的城市空间布局;以城市网络为纽带,促进城市间、城乡间要素合理流动;调整城市发展的公共政策,优化政府公共资源配置;促进城市发展方式转变,提高城市增长的质量。第三部分,是本文的结论与研究展望。概括了本文的主要研究结论,并指出本文进一步深化研究的问题。本文从三个方面进行了创新:1.研究视角的创新。本文从中国城市增长的时空演进特征分析入手,研究了中国城市增长的特征以及内在的决定因素,突破了一般城市经济增长影响因素的分析框架,拓展了城市经济学中城市增长问题的研究领域。2.研究方法的创新。本文采用非参数估计和转移动态等方法,分析了中国城市人口规模分布演化以及经济增长的分布演进。这些研究方法的应用,深化了对中国城市增长客观规律的认识。3.研究内容的创新。本文探讨了中国城市增长时空演进特征及其形成原因,揭示了城市增长的时空演进规律。论文的分析和提出的新观点,丰富了城市经济学理论,对于中国城市发展政策的制定具有较强的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the propulsion of industrialization and urbanization, the development of Chinese city enters a broad-new fast growing stage. The urban economy play a pivotal role in China’s economy and its overall contributions is increased dramatically. The radiation and deriving effect of cites in regional development, make it the key role to link urban economy and rural economy then realize the "five balances" goal for China. Although the development of Chinese city achieved a lot since the establishment of New China, there are still some problems for its development. On the one hand, what kinds of strategy should China adopt are still debating; On the other hand, the agglomeration economies and economic contribution of Chinese urban clusters are still low, radiation and driving effect of core city of urban cluster is weak are still bothering the development of Chinese cities. Identify the time-spatial characteristics of Chinese urban growth is the nexus to solve these disputes and problems. This dissertation takes the time-spatial characteristics of Chinese cities as starting point to probe the regularity of Chinese urban growth.This dissertation follows "observation-empirical test-interpretation-evaluation" study tactics to probe the time-spatial characteristics of Chinese urban growth and spatial econometrics, nonparametric econometrics are used to test this regularity empirically. From theoretical and empirical perspective, the causes and time-spatial regularity itself are investigated and the factors which influence it are tested empirically. Based on these regularities, Chinese city development policies are evaluated. Finally, this dissertation put forward some suggestions for Chinese city development that cater to these time-spatial regularities. This dissertation has eight chapters and it is divided into three parts:The first part is Introduction, Including First and Second Chapter. The reason for writing this thesis, theoretical and policy implication, summary of related research and the outline of this dissertation are embraced in the first chapter. In the second chapter, first define some important concept in this dissertation such as urban, urban system, agglomeration, spatial convergence. Then explain empirical methods that are used in this thesis in explicit way. These method including neoclassical economic growth converge theory, spatial econometrics, nonparametric econometrics, distribution dynamics, etc.The second part is the core of this dissertation. It consists of five chapters. According to its content, they are divided into three essays:The first essay, including chapter three and four, is time-spatial characteristic of Chinese urban growth. Chapter three is mainly about the city size distribution of China. After summarize the evolution of China urban system based on historical data, this chapter test whether Chinese urban system satisfy Zipf’s law and Gibrat’s law or not. Then find that different size of Chinese city grows in a parallel way by the means of spatial Lorenz curves and distribution dynamic method. Chinese urban economic growth distribution is analyzed in Chapter four. The analysis is based on spatial econometrics and nonparametric method. Parallel growth and spatial agglomeration are distinct characteristics of Chinese urban economic growth. Finally, spatial converge hypothesis are tested based on cross-section and spatial panel data method.The second essay probes the causes of Chinese urban time-spatial evolution characteristics. It includes chapter five and six. Chapter five is about the cause of parallel growth and size distribution of Chinese cities. Base on case study, this chapter concludes that parallel growth is universal growth phenomenon in urban growth. Using existing theoretical model, this chapter explains parallel growth in explicit way. In the following part of this chapter, what causes the size distribution of Chinese urban system is analyzed in an theoretical framework and then use the panel data method to find which factor play the pivotal role in Chinese city size distribution. The cause of economic growth agglomeration is the main content of chapter six. First, this chapter summarizes the general theory of agglomeration economics. Then analyze the mechanism of agglomeration cause growth and use the dynamic panel data method to quantify agglomeration economic growth effect. Finally, analyze the factors that lead to economic activities agglomerating by case study of Tianjin Binhai New Area manufacture industry and identify the key factors which lead to economic activities agglomerate.The final essay is policy implications, including chapter seven. Based on time-spatial evolution regularity of Chinese urban growth, this chapter review and evaluate the urban development policies of China. There are a lot of problems in Chinese urban development such as the economic contributions and agglomeration economies of urban clusters are low, economic contribution of the core city in urban clusters are still low, city size distribution of China need to improve, preferable public policies towards big cities are prominent, etc. In order to handle these problems, this dissertation put forward some suggestions which are as follows: exerting agglomeration economies base on city industry; planning the spatial layout of different size city in line with its economic function; building harmonious city network to facilitate the factor movement between cities and urban and rural area; Adjust the public policies for city development in order to allocate the public resources more efficiently; promote changing the way of urban economic growth, improve the quality of urban growth.The final part is conclusions and future research agenda for this dissertation, this part summarize the main conclusions and discuss the future research to perfect this dissertation.There are academic innovations for this dissertation in three aspects, they are as follows:1. Innovation of research perspective. This dissertation study urban growth problem based on time-spatial evolution characteristics and identifies the cause of it. This is quit different from the general urban growth researches which are focus on causal factors analysis. This thesis expands the research topic scope for urban growth problems in urban economics.2. Innovation of research methods. This dissertation adopts nonparametric estimation method and distribution dynamics method to investigate the population size and economic output distribution of Chinese urban growth. The usage of these empirical research methods deepens the understanging of urban growth regularites of China.3. Innovation of research topics. This dissertation discusses the time-spatial evolution of Chinese urban growth and unveils the time-spatial evolution regularities of urban growth in China. The analysis and brand-new opinions which were proposed in this dissertation enrich the theory of urban economics. It is also of important reference value for the policy-making of China urban development.更多还原