要素流动、产业转移与经济增长

【作者】 邹璇；

【导师】 安虎森；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 区域经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 要素空间流动和产业区际转移是一种内涵式空间优化增长方式。如何通过要素和产业理性流动优化经济空间,实现经济快速增长,是政界和学界最为关心的问题之一。传统空间优化思想告诉我们,要素、产品和产业自由流动能提高整个系统和系统内各区域的福利水平。而强调规模经济和知识扩散的新增长理论直接证明了空间优化能够提高各地区的长期增长速度,从而带来动态利益。从现实情况看来,欧盟各国的要素自由流动惠及各成员国:采取贸易自由化的日本和“亚洲四小龙”相继实现经济起飞;张开臂膀迎送产业进出的中国,近年更是创造了“中国奇迹”。这些充分说明了空间优化对经济增长的促进作用。采取地方保护主义(林毅夫等,1999)阻隔要素、产品和产业自由流动的国家或地区(无论其选择了何种社会制度)不仅没有实现经济快速发展的愿望,反而使得资源配置的效率更低、经济增长更加缓慢,国内矛盾日益恶化。本文在迪克希勒-斯蒂格利茨框架下发展了系列包容新古典和新经济地理学特征的两地区四部门一般均衡模型,并以此为基础分析了单要素劳动力迁移、多要素资本和劳动力同时迁移以及产业空间转移对宏观变量的冲击和经济增长的影响。文章构建了空间优化理论,创立了空间优化政策,阐明了要素和产业空间流动对经济增长等系列经济变量的冲击。同时,分析要素和产业空间动态一般均衡前后的内生性专业化分工,以及分析一般均衡下经济增长等变量之间的动态关系。实证了中国东部沿海与内陆之间要素流动对宏观变量的冲击和经济增长的影响。研究发现,在规模报酬递增下,劳动、资本和产业是同向流动的。鉴于现实中的劳动、资本和产业整体上表现为同向集聚特征,因此当前经济遵循规模报酬递增规律。在收益递增下要素流动能提高发达地区的要素报酬率,但降低欠发达地区的要素报酬率。同时要素流动能促使发达地区生产技术更新和升级,而欠发达地区的生产技术则变得更加落后;对于发达地区而言,规模报酬递增下的要素流动既能从要素投入量的增加上确保产出增长,又能从技术升级的生产函数改进上得到更大的产出增量。因此要素流动必然促进发达地区经济大幅增长,然而欠发达地区则会从要素流出导致要素投入量的减少上降低产量,同时也会因生产技术折旧而导致产出下降,因此要素流动会削弱欠发达地区的经济增长。然而现实中要素流出对欠发达地区的经济增长削弱程度相对较小,因此规模报酬递增下的要素同向流动最有利于宏观经济增长。然而这种经济增长虽然确保了经济系统的整体效率,但区际差距会进一步扩大;中国沿海一内陆实证结论发现,中国的资本和劳动力流向具有非常明显的同向流动特征,东部沿海各省直辖市是资本和劳动力的集聚地,内陆各省自治区直辖市资本和劳动力的迁出地。因此东部沿海的经济增长幅度大。内陆地区经济增长幅度小,这就拉大了沿海与内陆之间的经济差距。本文的最终研究结论告诉我们,在规模报酬递增情形下,无论是劳动空间迁移、资本空间流动还是产业空间转移对宏观经济增长都具有促进作用,而且实证发现资本流动对经济的促进作用高于劳动流动对经济的促进作用。这一结论为我们运用空间优化手段促进经济增长提供了一个崭新的政策手段。更多还原

【Abstract】 The spatial flowing of factors and inter-regional transfer of industries is an intensive and spatially optimizing mode of growth. How to optimize the economic space and to achieve rapid economic growth through the rational flow of factors and industries has become one of the most concerned questions in both political and academic circles. Traditional ideas of spatial optimization told us that the free flow of factors, products and industries could promote the welfare level of the whole system and subsystems. And the new growth theory which emphasizes economies of scale and knowledge diffusion directly proved that spatial optimization can promote long-term growth rate and bring about dynamic benefits. Cases in point are that the EU countries have benefited from the free flow of factors among them, Japan and the "Four Little Dragons of Asia" have achieved their economic take-off successively through trade liberalization strategy, and the free flow of industries between China and the other countries has created the "Chinese Miracle" in recent years. All those examples have fully illustrated the facilitating function of spatial optimization towards economic growth. Countries and regions that implemented local protectionism (Lin Yi-fu, etc., 1999) have not only failed to achieve their aspirations of rapid economic development, but also lowered the efficiency of the allocation of resources, slowed the economic growth, and aggravated their domestic conflicts.Under the Dixit-Stiglitz framework, this paper developed a series of general equilibrium models of two regions and four departments with new features of the Neo-classical Economics and the New Economic Geography and then, based on these models, analyzed the impacts of single-factor labor migration, two elements’ flow of capital and labor, and industrial spatial transfer on macroeconomic variables and economic growth. The paper established the theory of space optimization, originated a space optimization policy and explained the impacts of the spatial flow of factors and industries on various economic variables such as economic growth. Meanwhile, it analyzed the endogenous specialization before and after the spatial dynamic general equilibrium of factors and industries, as well as the dynamic relationship between economic variables under the general equilibrium. It also gave empirical demonstration to explain the impact of factor flow between China’s eastern coastal regions and inland regions on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth.The study finds that labor, capital and industry flow in the same direction under increasing scale returns. Considering that the labor, capital and industry in reality are generally convergent, the current economy follows the law of increasing scale returns. Under increasing returns, factors flow can improve its return rate in those developed areas while reduce it in less developed areas. And also, factors flow can stimulate the developed areas to update and upgrade their production technology, but result in further backwardness in under-developed areas. For those developed areas, factors flow under increasing scale returns can not only ensure their output growth by increasing inputs, but also achieve greater increase in output by improving the production function through technological upgrading. Therefore, factors flow will inevitably enhance the economic growth to a large extent in developed areas, but production of less developed regions will decrease because of reductions in factor inputs on production due to factors outflow, and the output will decline owing to the depreciation of production technology, so the factors flow will impair economic growth in the underdeveloped areas. While in reality the level of weakening economic growth by factors outflow of the less developed regions is relatively small, thus under increasing returns to scale, factors flow in one direction is most conducive to macro-economic growth. Although this kind of economic growth ensures the overall efficiency of economic systems, the inter-regional imbalances will be further expanded. China’s empirical conclusions about coastal and inland areas found that Chinese capital flow and labor flow are obviously in the same direction. The coastal provinces and the municipalities directly under the jurisdiction of the Central Government are the converging places of capital and labor, and the inland provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities are the outflow places of capital and labor. Therefore, the eastern coastal regions’ economy growth has a substantial increasing margin, but inland regions’ economic growth is quite the opposite, which has expanded the economic gap between the coastal and inland areas. The conclusion of this study tells us that under increasing returns to scale, the spatial migration of labors, the spatial flow of capitals and the spatial transfer of industries can all facilitate macro-economic growth, and the empirical test finds that the facilitating function of capital flow towards economy is stronger than that of the labor flow. This finding provides a new policy instrument in promoting economic growth by means of spatial optimization.更多还原