【作者】 谢琼；

【导师】 王雅鹏；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,中国经济迅猛发展。但是,占人口绝大多数的中国农村经济发展速度明显慢于城市,城乡收入差距不断拉大。农村金融发展落后,不适应农村经济发展的需要是中国农村经济发展缓慢的原因之一。自1996年农村金融市场改革以来,农村金融市场逐步形成了政策性银行、商业银行与合作银行并存的格局。但农村金融体系依然处于金融抑制之下,难以发挥有效配置农村资金的金融功能。随着2003年新一轮农信社改革,农村金融领域的改革突飞猛进,农行股改、农发行拓展业务、邮政储蓄银行成立,2006年农村金融“新政”实施,这些变化使得我国农村金融体系服务“三农”的能力得以提升。然而,新的发展总会受到原有制度的桎梏,并伴随着一些新的问题。笔者建议从横向和纵向两个方面同时推进改革深化。横向改革强调农村金融体制突破:巩固和创新存量改革,大力引进增量改革;纵向改革强调农村金融机制改进,其中关键是引导资金回流农村,并将信贷资金有效的投放和利用于“三农”经济,而提高农村信贷资金利用效率的有效途径就是大力发展小额信贷,并建设良好的金融生态环境。本文在审视我国农村金融改革的现状与问题的基础上,从体制突破和机制改进两个角度出发,对农村金融问题进行了研究,其主要内容如下:(1)关于我国农村金融发展与农村经济增长的关系。通过典型相关分析、Granger因果分析研究二者的互动性,以及利用多变量VAR系统协整分析和三变量误差修正模型(VEC)研究前者对后者的贡献效率。结果发现在我国农村并没有实现“金融发展与经济增长间存在明显的正向关系,金融发展推动经济增长”等主流观点,而是不可思议的反向结论。事实上,农村正规金融诞生的第一天起就是外生于农村经济的,我国农村金融发展的目标存在偏差,导致了其结构和功能的失衡。从而使得农村金融的发展对农村经济增长和农民增收的促进缺乏效率。因此农村金融改革首先必须坚守农村金融服务农村经济、促进农民增收的长期目标,校正农村金融发展中的目标、结构和功能的失衡。(2)我国目前农村金融需求旺盛、范围广泛、层次鲜明,针对不同的需求需要不同的资金供给主体。然而农村金融体系中各类银行业务定位模糊且互相交叉,导致对农村金融市场细分不足,难以满足客户的差异化需求。因此需要将农村金融的需求层次与金融机构的业务类型进行一定的匹配,最终形成多元并存、各有侧重、适度竞争的格局。(3)关于农村传统金融机构的改革。新一轮农信社改革已初见成效,“花钱买机制”的政策效应初步显现。农信社改革进一步深化的方向是完善法人治理结构;维护和保持县级联社的独立法人地位;落实农村社区金融机构政策,增强服务“三农”的功能。农业发展银行构建了“一体两翼”的整体业务布局,需要进一步调整农发行的职能定位,适应粮棉油流通体制改革的新情况,实行政策性和经营性业务分开管理的体制改革,尝试商业化和市场化经营运作。农业银行在股改已完成,但同时需要面向“三农”,实施县域“蓝海战略”:突出差异化,在农村金融高端市场上树立和维持领先性的竞争地位;完善“一行两制”的思路,保持“三农”业务的独立性;挖掘县域蓝海市场空间,拓宽农村金融服务业务渠道。(4)农村资金互助社是典型的农村合作金融,能够加强农村金融市场的合作。其试点中的问题包括股本金增长缓慢,存款不足,融入资金困难等,而资金互助社缺乏资金支持政策是其难以为继的要害。要解决该问题,一要发挥货币政策引导作用;二要实行差别存款利率;三要建立商业银行商业批发与农村资金互助社服务零售互惠机制,及配套的担保体系等。(5)村镇银行是典型的农村商业性金融,在试点中建立了多种信贷模式,促进了农村金融市场的竞争,也推动了民间金融正规化。村镇银行的发展面临各种问题,一是盈利后劲不足,可持续性将经受考验;二是存、贷款业务进一步拓展面临困难;三是支农效率偏弱,“厌农”、“弃农”现象让人堪忧;四是配套政策、监管资源不足。建议从拓宽资金渠道、放开利率限制、创新产品与服务、本土人才培养等方面加以突破。(6)农户家庭的金融行为方面。通过建立联立方程(GMM估计)对农户家庭金融行为和收入支配行为分析得知:农户家庭储蓄与存款基准利率和农村金融发展均存在正向关系;农户投资与金融机构贷款基准利率负相关,与农村金融发展正相关;农户的金融行为、信贷需求与农村金融制度之间存在脱节。因此,建议要扩大农村金融机构规模,提高金融机构的效率,同时加快利率市场化。(7)农村中小企业融资困境研究。我国县域和农村中小企业融资困境的具体成因包括:商业银行撤并、授信管制,统一货币政策,无差别信贷政策以及担保体系能力有限等等。从经济学角度可归纳为:信贷风险责任制度和中小企业诚信缺失共同导致“信贷配给”,以及过度集中集权的信贷管理和过高的不良资产率共同导致“利率抑制”。建议从建立多层次的银行融资体系和进行更为实质性的信贷基础结构建设两方面解构县域中小企业的融资困境。(8)农村资金外流问题与回流机制研究。通过对1998-2006年的地区数据建立Panel Data模型估计发现,农民收入、农村经济增加值、农村贷款还贷率是影响农村资金外流率的三个因素。但在不同区域,这三个因素的影响程度和方向也各有特征。在经济发达地区,农村经济增加值的提高和贷款还贷的改善可以明显降低农村资金的外流率;在经济欠发达地区,农民收入的提高却大大增加了农村资金的外流率。目前,农村资金回流机制存在措施不明确、缺乏激励机制和考核机制等问题。通过对机制设计理论和激励机制基本模型的分析,笔者建立了农村资金回流机制改进的理论模型,认为要引导资金回流,机制改进的几个重点方面在于金融机构运营的信用环境及其自身抗风险的能力、农村和县域信贷资金收益率,以及政策当局的奖励、补偿和支持。(9)我国的小额信贷发展从20世纪80年代起步至今历经了三个阶段,主要呈现以下几个特征:逐渐从扶贫功能过度到金融功能;小额信贷运作依托农信社,带有明显的自上而下的政府导向性;民间小额信贷逐渐受到重视,政府试图引导小额信贷市场步入竞争时代。我国小额信贷在发展中帮助农民脱贫、增加农民收入,打击了高利贷活动,促进了农村金融的市场竞争,改善了农村的信用环境。我国农村小额信贷的进一步发展,需要考虑地区差别,选择与地方经济水平相适宜的发展模式;立足小额信贷功能实现的目标,创新以小额信贷为中心的功能化信贷产品;应采取灵活的差别利率定价策略;优化小额信贷监管等。(10)农村经济发展的金融支持需要有一个良好的金融生态环境。对农村金融生态环境的量化研究有利于帮助排查影响某县域金融生态环境的某个子系统,具有针对性的改善薄弱环节,提高改进效率。加强农村金融生态环境建设:一是健全多元化、有序竞争的农村金融生态主体;二是优化农村经济结构,夯实农村、县域经济基础;三是改善金融法制环境;四是推进农村信用体系建设;五是加强地方政府对农村金融生态环境建设的组织领导;六是规范和强化农村金融生态环境建设中社会中介服务;七是深化经济体制改革,切实维护金融债权。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s economy has been developing rapidly since reform and opening up. However, the rural economy that covers vast majority of the population, significantly developed more slowly than the urban area, and urban-rural income gap continued to widen. The lag of rural finance and its maladjustment with rural economy was one of the reasons for the low growth of rural economy. Since the reform of rural financial markets in 1996, it had gradually formed a co-exist market situation, which covered policy-oriented banks, commercial banks and cooperative banks. However, the rural financial system was still under financial repression, and it was difficult to play an effective financial function to allocate the rural funds. With the new reform of the China Rural Credit Cooperatives (CRCC) in 2003, the reform of rural financial domain advance rapidly. The Joint-stock reform of the China Agricultural Bank (CAB), the business expansion of the China Agricultural Development Bank (CADB), the establishment of the China Postal Savings Banks (CPSB), and the implementation of rural finance "New Deal" in 2006, these changes has improved the capability of rural financial system to service "three rural".However, the new development will inevitably be affected by the shackles of the previous system, and along with some new problems. The author suggests deepening the reform from both horizontal and vertical at the same time. Horizontal reform emphasizes a breakthrough on rural financial system: to innovate and consolidate the "stock" reform, and vigorously introduce "increment" reform. Vertical reform emphasizes an improvement on the rural financial mechanism, the key in which is to guide the funds back into the rural areas, and invested the credit funds effectively to the "three rural" economy. One effective way to achieve this is to vigorously develop micro-finance, and to create a nicer financial ecological environment.On the ground of reviewing the status quo and problems of China’s rural financial reform, this paper researches the problems of rural finance form the two angles of system breakthrough and mechanism improvement. The main contents are as follows:(1) The relationship between rural financial development and rural economic growth. Through studying the interaction between the two by canonical correlation analysis and Granger causality analysis, and the contribution efficiency of the former to the latter by multi-variable VAR system cointegration analysis and the three-variable error correction model (VEC), we found that it had not realize the main stream viewpoint of "The relationship between financial development and economic growth is evidently positive, and the financial development promote economic growth" in China’s rural area, but the incredible reverse conclusion. In fact, the rural formal finance was born exogenously with the rural economy, there was a deviation for the aims of China’s rural financial development, and that brought on an imbalance between its structure and functions, They together result in the lack of efficiency that rural finance should be to rural economy growth and the increase of farmers’ incomes. Therefore, we should hold the long-term goal of servicing rural economic production and increasing peasant incomes at the beginning of rural financial reform, and revise the deviation of aims, structure and functions in the development of rural finance.(2) The current demand for rural finance is bloom, wide and with distinct levels. Different needs require different capital supply main body. However, in the rural financial system, various banks had vague and crossing business position, that caused an insufficient rural financial market which can’t meet the different demand for customers. Hence, there should be some matching between the rural finance demand levels and different business types of rural financial institutions. So that it will ultimately form a market situation that various main bodies co-exist, have their own focus, and moderately compete with each other.(3) The reform of traditional financial institutions. The new reform of the CRCC has been achieve initial result, the effect of "paying for mechanism " policy has been appear, too. The further directions of deepening CRCC’s reform are to improve the corporate governance structure, maintain and hold the independent legal status of the county-level associations, implement policies of community financial institutions and enhance functions of servicing "three rural". The CADB has constructed the "One Body ,Two Wings" overall business arrangement. It need to adjust its function orientation further more, adapt to new situations of grain circulation system reform, carry out a management system reform with divided policy and mercantile business, try commercial and market-oriented operation. The CAB has finished its Joint-stock reform, but it need to face to the "three rural", implement the county "blue ocean strategy": to highlight its differences, and establish and maintain a leading competitive position in the high-end rural financial market, consummate the idea of "One Bank, Two System", Keep the independence of the "three rural " business, dredge up the market space of county Blue Ocean, widen the channels for rural financial services business.(4) Rural credit union funds (RCUF) is a typical rural cooperative finance, it can strengthen co-operation of rural financial markets. The issues of the pilot include the slow growth of the share capital, lack of deposit, difficulties of external financing, and so on. Lack of fund support policies is the key point for the RCUF’s unsustainable plight. To resolve this problem, first, it should play the role of guiding for the monetary policies. Second, the differential deposit interest rates need to be implemented. Third, it needs to set up mutual benefit mechanisms between commercial banks’ wholesale business and the RCUF’s Retail business, and and related security system.(5) Village and town banks (VTB) is a typical rural commercial financial services. In its pilot, the VTB has created a variety of credit models, promoted competition of rural financial markets, and also promoted the regularization of non-governmental finance. There are some problems in VTB’s development, first, it lacks profit potential, and its sustainability will go through facings; Second, its deposit and loan further expansion faces difficulties; Third, the efficiency for support agriculture is weak, the phenomena of " disgusted with agriculture " and "abandoning agriculture " makes us worrying; Fourth, lack of supporting policies and supervisal resources. Recommendations to breakthrough these problems are widening the channels of funding, liberalizing the interest rates, innovating products and services, supervising inside and outside, and so on so forth.(6) Farmers’ household financial behaviors. Through establishing simultaneous equations (GMM estimates) to study farmers’ household financial behaviors and their income disposing behaviors, the author finds: There was a positive relationship between farmers’ household savings and the benchmark deposit interest rates, as well as rural financial development. Farmers’ household investments had a negative relationship with the benchmark loan interest rates, but were positive with rural financial development. There were some disjoints among farmers’ financial behaviors, credit demands, and the rural financial system. Therefore, it’s better to expand the scale of rural finance institutions, improve their operational efficiency, and speed up market-oriented interest rate reform at the same time.(7) The research of the financing plight of rural small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The specific causes of China’s SMEs’ financing plight include: commercial banks’ withdrawing and merging, credit control, a unified monetary policy, indistinguishable credit policy, as well as the security system with limited capacity, and so on. From an economic point of view can be summarized as follows: the "credit rationing" caused by the credit risk liability institution and the SMEs’ lack of honesty, as well as the "interest rate suppression" caused by the excessive concentrated credit management and high rates of non-performing assets. The recommendations for deconstruction of the SMEs’ financing plight set in two sides: to establish a multi-level system of bank financing, and carry out more substantial credit infrastructure construction.(8) The researches of the rural funds outflow problems and its return mechanism. Through estimating the Panel Data Model by the regional data of 1998-2006, the author finds three factors, farmers’ income, the added value of the rural economy, and rural loan repayment rate, are influential to the rural funds outflow. However, in different regions, these three factors have different impact on extent, direction with their own characteristics. In developed areas, the increasing of the added value of the rural economy and the improvement of loan repayment can significantly reduce the outflow rate of rural funds; In the underdeveloped areas, it has greatly increased the outflow rate of rural funds to increase the farmers’ incomes. At present, there are questions as ambiguous measures, lack of incentive and evaluation mechanisms about the rural funds return mechanism. By analyzing the theory of mechanism design and the basic model of the incentive mechanism, the author established a theoretical mechanism model to improve the rural funds outflow. To guide the funds back, we should emphasize some several key aspects about the mechanism improvement: the credit environment for the operation of financial institutions, and their own anti-risk abilities, the yield of credit funds in rural and county areas, as well as the encouragement, compensation and support from the policy authorities.(9) From the 80’s of 20th century to today, the development of China’s micro-credit covered three stages, the main characteristics are as follows: its function has changed gradually form poverty alleviation to financing; its operations rely on the CRCC, with obvious top-down government-oriented; non-governmental micro-credit gradually be taken seriously, the government has tried to steer micro-credit into the epoch of competitive market. The development of China’s micro-credit has helped farmers out of poverty, increased their income, been against the loan-sharking activities, and promoted the rural financial market competition and credit environment improvement. For the further development of rural micro-credit, we should consider the regional differences, choose development models fitting the local economic level; innovate functional credit products enclosing micro-credit to realize the micro-credit functional goal; adopt a flexible and differential interest rate pricing strategies; optimize micro-credit supervision.(10) It needs a good financial ecological environment (FEE) for rural finance to support rural economy development. To quantitatively study the rural FEE will be propitious to help investigating some subsystem that affects a county’s FEE, so that we can improve the weak points pertinently, boost the efficiency of improvement. The suggestions of the FEE construction are as follows: First, promote multiple and orderly competitive main bodies of rural financial ecology; Second, optimize the rural economy structure, tamp the economic bases of rural and county areas; Third, improve the financial legal environment; Fourth, push forward the construction of rural credit system; Fifth, strengthen local government’s organization and leadership with the FEE construction; Sixth, standardize and strengthen the social intermediary services for the FEE construction; Seven, deepen economic reform, effectively safeguard the financial debts rights.更多还原