【作者】 翁贞林；

【导师】 王雅鹏；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 国家粮食安全的基础在于国家粮食综合生产能力的稳定提高和粮食总产量的稳定增长,粮食产量的增长涉及到土地投入、劳动投入、资本投入和技术运用等多维变量。这些变量最终取决于农户行为,而农业政策的变化可以通过经济或非经济方式改变资源配置进而影响农户行为。对水稻生产而言,水稻生产能力建设的重点在主产区,水稻产量稳定增长的取决于主产区农户的稻作经营行为。因此,研究农户稻作经营行为,了解影响农户稻作经营行为选择的因素,尤其农业政策对农户稻作经营活动的影响,探索农户种粮行为的激励机制,对于构建对种稻农户的政策扶持机制,确保国家粮食安全有着重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文以江西省种稻农户(种稻大户和普通承包户)为研究对象,以江西省农户的调查数据为依托,采用规范与实证研究相结合的方法,以农户稻作经营的产前、产中、产后的顺序,对其有代表性的若干行为进行研究。其研究的主要内容如下:第1章“导言”。本章首先提出了为什么要研究农户稻作经营行为,以及研究该问题意义之所在,并在对研究现状述评后明确了本文的研究思路、方法和研究内容。第2章“理论基础与模型选择”。本章对农户行为理论及扶持粮食生产的相关理论进行了梳理,并对本论文所选择的模型进行介绍,旨为本论文下列各章的研究提供理论支撑。第3章“农业政策的增产增收效应及其对农户行为影响的理论分析”。主要内容包括农业政策形成的政治经济学分析、粮食政策经济学分析、粮食补贴政策对农户种植影响的经济学分析以及农户稻作经营过程中主体间的博弈分析等。第4章“农业政策的增产增收效应的实证分析”。本章主要从宏观角度利用时间序列资料,分析农业政策各变量对江西粮食产量、农户收入的影响,重点研究2004年以来新农业政策的执行情况及存在的问题。第5章“新农业政策下普通承包户稻作经营行为分析”。本章首先对1058普通承包户的调研数据进行整理,在此基础上,通过Logit模型分析,归纳出普通承包户稻作经营“双季改单季”行为的影响因素。通过多元线性回归分析,对普通承包户家庭劳动力非农化就业行为的影响因素进行实证检验。第6章“种稻大户稻作经营绩效及其粮食扶持政策与市场环境满意度的评价”。本章首先对619种稻大户稻作经营状况的调研资料进行统计整理,并运用经过改进了的C-D生产函数模型,对其稻作经营绩效进行分析;运用二级模糊综合评判法进行总体维度的分析方法,对种粮大户粮食扶持政策及其市场环境的满意度进行评价。第7章“新农业政策下种稻大户稻作经营行为分析”。本章运用Logit模型、Probit模型、Tobit模型等对大户“双季改单季”行为、“资金借贷”行为、“接受农技有偿服务”行为、“订单合同销售”行为选择的因素进行实证检验。第8章“国外扶持农户粮食生产的经验及其启示”。本章主要介绍美、日、欧盟等发达国家和地区以及韩国、印度、巴西等发展中国家支持粮食生产,保障农户收入的经验,为构建我国粮食产量和农户收入稳定增长的机制提供借鉴。第9章“主要结论与对策建议”。本章主要在对研究结论进行总结的基础上,提出了基于粮食增产、农户增收双重目标下的激励农户发展水稻生产的政策建议。通过以上各章的分析,得出以下几点结论:(1)时间序列数据分析表明,农业政策体系中,价格政策、补贴政策和投入政策都对江西水稻产量和农户收入有着显著的影响,其中价格因素影响最大。2004年农业新政策实施以来,政策效应明显,但由于农资价格和劳动力工资的过快上涨,增产增收的政策效应有逐年递减的趋势,一些政策措施例如最低收购价政策,需要对其标准适时调整,粮食补贴的对象和实施办法等,也有待于进一步完善。(2)普通承包户“双季改单季”问题比较严重,青年农民弃农行为普遍存在。土地规模过小、对粮食补贴增收作用评价不高、种稻收入预期差,是普通承包户选择“双季改单季”和家庭劳动力就业非农化的主要因素。(3)种稻大户对粮食扶持政策与市场环境因素的满意程度均较低,其中种稻大户对“对生产要素市场”最不满意。对种稻大户而言,土地种植规模能提高家庭收入,但对土地产出率、土地收益率的作用不明显,而对投入产出率有负向作用,所以种稻大户应保持适度规模。提高稻作复种指数、单位面积产量、稻谷收购价格、降低租金是提高大户经营绩效的重要途径。(4)种稻大户稻作经营行为的“双季改单季”行为、“借贷”行为、“接受有偿农技服务”行为、“订单销售”行为的影响因素分析结果如下:丘陵地区种稻大户“双季改单”的愿意较强,年轻的户主更愿意选择双季改单季,规模化种植下家庭人口的多少不是大户稻作经营“双季改单季”的主要影响因素。农田面积对大户稻作经营“双季改单季”行为选择有正向作用,大户更愿意选择种植双季稻。大户的机械化水平越高、稻谷价格越好、种稻预期收益越高、租期越长,种稻大户越愿意选择种植双季稻;大户户主文化程度、农田面积、转租方式(租期)、对借贷评价等5种因素对大户借贷行为选择有着显著的正向作用;成为大户的年数对大户借贷行为选择也有显著影响,但作用为负向;户主文化程度、非农劳动力比例、经营年数、大户对农技部门提供的技术指导评价等4个因素对种稻大户“接受有偿农技服务”行为选择有显著影响;随着户主年龄、文化程度、家庭人口数的增加,大户更愿意签订订单合同,但这些变量对大户选择订单合同规模没有显著影响。家庭劳动力人数越多、经营年数越长、对稻谷价格认知评价越好及处于平原地区的大户签订订单合同的概率越低,但这些变量对大户执行订单合同规模的影响不显著;借款对大户签订订单合同有着显著影响,但对其选择订单合同规模的影响不显著;种植规模越大的大户越有可能签订订单合同,但反而更可能降低执行订单合同规模。针对以上结论提出以下几点建议:(1)加大种粮农户补贴力度;(2)完善粮食补贴政策;(3)完善粮食直接补贴实施机制;(4)构建粮食生产相关的农村公共品补贴政策体系;(5)完善农村土地流转机制;(6)完善粮食价格形成机制;(7)完善粮食生产成本的控制机制;(8)构建粮食主产区与主销区的利益协调机制;(9)构建粮食生产投入保障机制;(10)构建农户科技扶持机制。本文的主要创新点:(1)研究思路的创新。本文从农户(微观)视角来探讨粮食问题,揭示影响农户稻作经营行为的内在机理,重点研究农业政策对农户行为选择的影响,为政府如何从农户视角完善农业政策体系提供了新的思路。(2)研究方法运用上的创新。本研究综合运用多元回归分析方法、二元Logistic模型、Probit模型等,对农户稻作经营行为进行多角度、多变量、多层面的分析,并且把农户的认知控制变量引入模型,具有研究方法的创新。(3)研究结论上的创新。从实证上对普通承包户和种稻大户稻作经营选择的影响因素分别进行计量检验与实证分析,所总结出的结论,较好地揭示了农户稻作经营行为选择问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 A country’s steady increases in its comprehensive grain production and gross grain output lay solid foundations for its grain safety. The increases in grain production are mainly determined by such variables as land input, labor input and capital input, and the technology application as well. And these variables are ultimately determined by farmers’ behaviour which could also be affected by economic or non-economic means, for changes in agricultural policies could further alter the resource allocation. In the case of rice production, emphasis should be laid on major production areas, for steady increases in rice output are determined by farmers’ management behaviour in rice production there.Thus, to study farmers’ management behaviour in rice production, to investigate factors affecting their choice of management behaviour in rice production especially influences of agricultural policies on farmers’ management behaviour in rice production, and to explore systems encouraging farmers’ rice production behaviour, all could establish the policy-supporting mechanism and ensure a country’s grain safety. So the study may have significant theoretical and practical implications.This study took (common contracted and mass-production) rice farmers in Jiangxi Province as objects, collected their investigation data, and combined normative and empirical methods. According to the time sequence of farmers’management behaviour before, during and after rice production, their typical behaviour was analysed. Main study contents of the paper are showed as follows:Chapter One: "Introduction". This chapter discusses reasons for and implications of the study on farmers’ management behaviour in rice production. After its literature review, the paper clarifies its study designs, methods and contents.Chapter Two: "Theoretical foundation and model sellection". This chapter mainly provides the further study with theoretical foundations by combing theories concerning the farmers’ behaviour and other relative theories concerning grain-production support.Chapter Three: "Theoretical analyses of effects of agricultural policies on increases in grain output and income and their influences on the farmers’ management behaviour in rice production". This chapter mainly includes political economic analyses of the formation of agricultural policies, economic analysis of grain policies, economic analysis of influences of grain subsidies on farmers’ grain production, and game relation analysis of subjects in the farmers’ managemen progress in rice production .Chapter Four: "Empirical study on effects of agricultural policies on increases in grain output and income". By using materials in time sequence and in macro perspective, this chapter mainly analyses influences of agricultural policies on rice outputs in Jiangxi Province and on farming income of farmers. The key point of this chapter is to study the implementation of new agricultural policies since 2004 as well as existing problems.Chapter Five: "Analysis of the common contracted farmers’ management behaviour in rice production under the implementation of new agricultural policies". Firstly, this chapter conducts the data collection of 1058 common contracted farmers being investigated. Based on this, by using Logit model analysis, the paper concludes factors influencing the common contracted farmers’ management behaviour change from "double-crop rice to mono-crop rice" in rice production. Then, by using OLS, the paper conducts empirical detection of factors influencing the non-farm behaviour in the rural labor employment in common contracted farm households.Chapter Six: "Evaluation of farmers’ management effects in rice mass-production and their degree of satisfaction towards grain-production-supporting policies and market circumstance". Firstly, this chapter collects data of management status of 619 sample farmers in rice mass-production. Based on this, by using improved C-D production function model, the paper analyzes their management effects in rice production. Then, by means of comprehensive evaluation and overall dimension, the paper analyzes and evaluates their degree of satisfaction towards grain-production-supporting policies and market circumstance.Chapter Seven: "Analysis of the farmers’ management behaviour in rice mass-production under new agricultural policies". By using Logit Model, Probit Model, Tobit Model, etc., the paper conducts empirical detection of farmers’ management behaviour changes "from double-crop rice to mono-crop rice" in rice mass-production, their behaviour of "credits" and of "receiving paid service of agricultural technology", and their behaviour choice of "contract marketing".Chapter Eight: "Experience and enlightenment of grain-production-supporting farmer households in foreign countries". This chapter mainly introduces experience of grain-production-supporting and farmer-income-safeguarding policies in such developed countries as the U.S., Japan, and countries in E.U. etc., as well as in such developing countries as South Korea, India and Brazil, etc., which could give suggestions to the construction of a mechanism to maintain steady increases in grain output as well as in farmers’ income in China.Chapter Nine: "Main conclusions and recommendations". This chapter mainly summarizes conclusions of previous studies discussed above, and based on this, raises suggestions and countermeasures to encourage farmers to develop rice production by means of increasing both their rice output and agricultural income.Through analyses in chapters discussed above, conclusions are drawn as follows:(1)By using the data in time sequence, results show that in the system of agricultural policies, such policies as price policies, subsidy policies and investment policies achieve signicicant influences on rice output and farmers’ income in Jiangxi Province, of them price policies achieve the most. Since the implementation of new agricultural policies in 2004, policy effects have been achieved obviously. But owing to the rapid price increases in agricultural production means and in labour wages, policy effects on output and income increases tend to decrease year by year. Considering these, some policies need to be further perfected. As for the lowest grain purchasing policy, all of its standards, subsidy objects and implementation measures need to be readjusted.(2) Serious problems of the management behaviour changes "from double-crop rice to mono-crop rice" exist in the common contracted farm households, and young farmers commonly give up their cultivation behaviour. The main reasons for the common contracted farmers’ management behaviour changes "from double-crop rice to mono-cro rice" and for their non-farm behaviour in rural labor employment are small-scaled cultivated land, low evaluation of subsidies for grain to gain income increase, and low scheduled income in rice production.(3) The degrees of rice mass-production farmers’ satisfaction towards grain-supporting policies and the market circumstance are generally low, and the lowest degree goes towards "the market of main production means". As for rice mass-production fanners, the cultivated land scale has positive effects on their income increases, but has weak effects on rates of land production and land benefits, and even has negative effects on rates of their input-output. Thus, a certain proper land scale must be maintained. Rice mass-production farmers’ management effects can only be achieved by such main means as increases in multiple rice index, unit yield and (scheduled) purchasing prices, as well as decrease in land rents.(4) By analyzing factors affecting farmers’ management behaviour changes "from double-crop rice to mono-crop rice" in rice mass-production, their behaviour of "credits" and of "receiving paid service of agricultural technology", and that of "contract marketing", results are showed in the following:In hilly areas, the rice mass-production farmers’ willingness of management behaviour changes "from double-crop rice to mono-crop rice" is strong, and the young farm household heads’ willingness is stronger, but in rice mass-production the decisive influencing factor is not their family population. The acreage of rice cultivation has positive influences on the rice mass-production farmers’ management behaviour changes "from double-crop rice to mono-crop rice", for they are more willing to choose double-crop rice cultivation. And the more mechanized they are, the higher the rice price is, the higher the scheduled income in rice production they can get, and the longer the land lease is, the more willingly they choose double-crop rice cultivation.Five factors showing significantly positive influences on the rice mass-production farmers’ behaviour of "credits" are the household heads’ intellectual degrees, the acreage of rice cultivation, land rent ways (the land lease), and their evaluation of credits, etc.. However, their years of becoming rice mass-production farmers have significantly negative influences on their behaviour of "credits".As for the rice mass-production farmers’ behaviour of "willingly receiving paid service of agricultural technology", significant influencing factors include the intellectual degrees of household heads, rates of non-farm rural labours, years of farming management, and their evaluation of agricultural technology provided by government sub-units.With the aging of household heads and increases in their intellectual degrees and family population, rice mass-production farmers more willingly tend to sign agricultural contracts, but such variables can not achieve significant effects on their contract scales. The greater the family population is, the longer their years of farming management are, and the better evaluation of rice prices they make, the less possibly the rice mass-production farmers in flat countries will sign agricultural contracts. But these variables have not so significant influences on their executiion of contract scales. Credits also have significant influences on their contracts, but do not achieve so much significance on their contract scale choice. However, the larger scale they cultivate, the more possibly they will sign agricultural contracts, but may choose to execute small-scaled contracts.Through the conclusions listed above, recommendations are raised as follows:(1) To strengthen subsidies for farmers; (2) To perfect grain subsidy policies; (3) To perfect the mechanism to implement direct grain-subsidy; (4) To construct a policy system to release subsidies for public products related to grain production in rural areas; (5) To perfect the mechanism of land circulation and land transfer in rural areas; (6) To perfect the formation mechanism of grain prices; (7) To perfect the control mechanism of grain production cost; (8) To construct the mechanism to coordinate benefits in both major grain producing and marketing areas; (9) To construct a system to safeguard input in grain production; (10) To construct a mechanism of agricultural technology support.Original findings in the paper may include the following:(1) Originality in study designs. In farmers’ (micro) perspective, this paper tries to explore grain problems and the internal mechanism influencing farmers’ management behaviour in rice production. Emphasis of this study is laid on influences of agricultural policies on farmers’ management behaviour choice, so the paper provides the government with new thoughts and ideas on how to improve and perfect an agricultural policy system in farmers’ perspective.(2) Originality in methodology. By using such research methods as multivariate regressional analysis, binary Logistic Model, Probit Model, etc., this paper studies farmers’ management behaviour in rice production by means of analyses of multi-perspectives, multi-variables, and multi-levels, and some control cognition variables were applied to models. These are originality in methodology.(3) Originality in conclusions. In empirical perspective, this paper conducts quantitative detection and empirical analysis of factors influencing common contracted and rice mass-production farmers’ management behaviour choice in rice production, and the study results fairly and basicly discover the management behaviour choice.更多还原