【作者】 张长敏；

【导师】 冉勇康；

【作者基本信息】 中国地震局地质研究所 ， 构造地质学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 本文主要利用可拓理论及层次分析法进行了西山地区采空塌陷危险性预测研究,并在典型地段利用概率积分法、数值模拟方法进行了采空塌陷预测。主要思路是探讨解决采空塌陷危险性预测、区划中人为干扰的问题,为开展地质灾害预警预报工作提供基础资料。北京西山地区煤炭开采历史悠久,长期的煤炭开采在地下形成了大面积的采空区,时刻威胁当地生态环境和人民生命财产的安全,这些问题已成为研究区内经济建设发展的制约因素。进行采空塌陷危险性评价可有效预防采空塌陷灾害对人民生命财产的危害,保持经济和环境的可持续发展。因此,开展西山地区采空塌陷危险性预测研究工作对于北京市地质灾害防治、防灾减灾工作方面具有重要的指导作用,对于保护国家和人民的生命财产安全,实现人与环境的协调发展具有重要的现实意义。前人对于采空塌陷的研究着重分析岩石力学因素,对于地质因素和附加荷载因素的考虑比较少。目前国内外在采空塌陷研究中尚存在一些问题,主要包括:对采矿因素考虑较为周全,对地层结构和地质背景等方面因素考虑较少;评价方法有多种,但进行评价时人为主观因素占比重较大,比较客观的评价和预测方法还需要进一步探索;采空塌陷危险性区划方法的研究深度不够,不同的评价方法直接影响到区划结果的准确性,如何探索新理论、新方法进行采空塌陷危险性评价仍需要进一步深入研究;对于地质灾害预测、预报、评价模型及其基于GIS实现方法的研究还很薄弱。从目前国内外研究现状入手,结合西山地区实际情况,本文重点进行了西山地区采空塌陷的特征分析及危险性预测研究工作。在详细野外调查、资料分析基础上对西山地区采空塌陷现状、煤炭开采历史与采空塌陷形成的规律、影响采空塌陷的空间分布的各种因素进行了全面系统的总结与论述。同时对国内外采空塌陷危险性预测研究现状进行了分析,在此基础上,基于GIS系统、可拓理论及层次分析法提出了采空塌陷危险性区划模型,进行了采空塌陷危险性评判,取得了以下研究成果:1)系统总结了西山地区采空塌陷的发育特征、地面塌陷类型、空间及时间分布等,分析了西山地区采空塌陷分布与覆岩时代、岩体结构、采空区尺寸、煤层倾角、煤层厚度及开采深度、重复采动、水文条件、地形地势、松散盖层、构造应力场、不连续面性状等方面的关系。2)基于可拓理论及层次分析法进行了西山地区采空塌陷危险性区划研究。煤矿开采后引发地面塌陷的危险性预测评估是煤矿地质灾害危险性评估的核心内容。由于采空塌陷的影响因素非常复杂,对其研究的文献也比较少,本文在GIS的支持下,结合层次分析法及可拓模型,以IDL为程序设计语言,进行了采空塌陷危险性区划研究。根据研究结果,西山地区采空塌陷危险性共分为五级:四级危险度分区主要分布于门头沟门城镇、王平地区,面积为9.81km²;三级危险度分区主要分布于门头沟门城镇、军庄、潭柘寺、王平、安家滩、大台、千军台、斋堂黄岭西、马栏及洪水峪、房山北窖、上英水、中英水、三合村、他窖、史家营、宝水等地区,面积为20.19km²;二级危险度分区主要分布于门头沟门城镇、军庄、潭柘寺、王平、安家滩、大台、千军台、斋堂黄岭西、马栏及洪水峪、房山北窖、上英水、中英水、三合村、他窖、史家营、宝水等地区,面积为42.18km²;一级危险度分区主要分布于门头沟门城镇、军庄、潭柘寺、王平、安家滩、大台、千军台、斋堂黄岭西、马栏及洪水峪、房山北窖、上英水、中英水、三合村、他窖、史家营、宝水等地区,面积为27.28km²;其它地区为零级危险度分区,面积为1907.65km²。3)进行了典型地段采空塌陷的数值模拟研究。收集了大量西山地区采空塌陷的资料,并进行了现场调查。利用物探和钻探方法对典型地区的采空分布情况进行了勘查。通过资料分析及现场调查、勘查工作成果,对采空塌陷的发生、演化规律及其控制、影响因素取得初步认识。在此基础上以利用概率积分法和FLAC程序进行了典型地段的采空塌陷危险性预测研究,对108国道K125+400-K125+800路段和门头沟南港地区采空塌陷引发的地表移动进行了预测评价。根据模拟计算结果,108国道K125+400-K125+800路段在车辆动荷载、降雨条件及地震荷载作用下,区内地表移动加剧,地表沉陷可达到4.5m左右,水平移动可达到1.50m左右。地表移动将直接造成108国道路基、路坡开裂,甚至导致道路失稳破坏。门头沟南港地区内马各庄煤矿采区Ⅰ和Ⅱ地段地面变形较大,预计沉降量为1.7～2.3m;曲率为0.3～0.7×10^-3/m,水平变形为10.0～23.0mm/m,倾斜为10～24mm/m。南港村东南侧地段预计地面沉降量为0.6～1.4m,曲率为0.15～0.3×10^-3/m,水平变形为1.0～6.0 mm/m,倾斜为4～10mm/m。本研究在研究深度、精度及区划理论、区划方法方面都进行了探索,在一定程度上丰富了采空塌陷灾害理论、方法,提高了地质灾害研究水平,可为其它地区地质灾害危险性区划研究工作提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 This thesis applies the extension theory, AHP and GIS system to the research of goaf subsidence of the coalmine in the Xishan （western mountainous） area of Beijing. The probability integral method and numerical simulation method were used for the prediction of goaf collapses. The main idea is to reduce the artificial disturbance in the risk zonation and provide basic data in the early warning forecast of geological disaster.The Xishan area of Beijing has a long history of exploitation of coal deposits. Mining of the coal deposits has caused many geological environment problems, such as goafs, destruction of groundwater and ecological landscape. These problems have made a serious influence on the environment of this area, and affect the development of the economy.There are many problems in the research of risk zonation of mining subsidence. For example, the stratum structure and geological background are often excluded; the artificial factors are magnified; the method of risk factors zoning needs improvement and the GIS method is rarely used in the research.The risk factors zoning of mining subsidence plays a vital role in the preventing and curing of geological disaster. Analysis and risk factors zoning of mining subsidence in the Xishan area of Beijing is the main part of this thesis. Based on the investigation and analysis of the available data, the present situation of mining subsidence in the Xishan area, the history of exploitation of coal, the characteristic and influence factors of the mining subsidence are reviewed. And the present research condition of the mining subsidence is also analyzed. Then, a new model for goaf subsidence prediction is proposed by using the extention theory, GIS system and AHP analysis. The conclusions as follows:1) The characteristics, type and distribution of the mining subsidence in the Xishan area of Beijing are discussed. The overlying strata, rock structure, size of mining subsidence area, the seam angle, thickness of the strata, repeated mining, hydrology, topography of the terrain, unconsolidated sediments cover, tectonic stress field, discontinuous surface traits are also analyzed. 2) Based on the extension theory, AHP and G1S system, the model of mining subsidence risk factors zoning is constructed. The risk factors zoning of the Xishan area is made by using this model. with the GIS software, the risk of goaf subsidence is divided into five grades.The fourth-grade risk area is 9.81 km², the third-grade risk area is 20.19 km², the second-grade risk area is 42.18 km², the first-grade risk area is 27.28 km², and the other area is the zero-grade risk area. Besides the research of risk of mining goaf subsidence, this work has also predicted the mining subsidence in the typical region through the probability integral method and FLAC program.3) Besides the research of risk of mining goaf subsidence, this thesis has also predicted the mining subsidence in the typical region through probability integral method and FLAC program. The future mining subsidence is predicted in the K125+400-K125+800 section of the 108 national road and Nangang area in Mengtougou.According to the simulation results, the surface subsidence in the 108 national road can be 4.5m, the horizontal displacement can be 1.50m under the condition of the vehicle dynamic load and rainfall. And the surface subsidence would cause the road slope crack, and even lead to damage of the road.The ground deformation in the mine sections I and II in Magezhuang is lager than in other areas. And the surface subsidence is expected from 1.7 to 2.3m; curvature of 0.3～0.7×10^-3/m, the horizontal movement of 10.0～23.0 mm/m , inclination of 10²4mm/m. the surface subsidence in south-east area of Nangang is expected from 0.6 to 1.4m, curvature of 0.15～0.3×10^-3/m, the horizontal movement of 1.0～6.0 mm/m , and inclination of 4～10mm/m.This research contains some exploration work and innovation in theory. The result of this research can be used in the preventing and curing of geological disaster, programming of disaster prevention, and the development of economy in the Xishan area in Beijing.更多还原