【作者】 侯明利；

【导师】 李京文； 傅贤治；

【作者基本信息】 江南大学 ， 食品贸易与文化， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 目前,中国已进入工业化中后期阶段。国民经济的主导产业已由农业转变为非农产业,从经济发展来看,中国在总体上已经具备了工业反哺农业的实力,农业成为政府补贴的部门,而作为农业基础产业的粮食产业,更是成为政府补贴的重点。由于粮食比较利益较低,农民增收成为难题;同时近年来严峻的国际粮食危机使得保障国家粮食安全显得尤为重要,因此现阶段保障国家粮食安全和促进农民增收成为中国政府补贴粮食的两大目标。由于原有的粮食补贴政策已不适应现阶段的经济发展,因此中国政府从2004年开始全面实行以直接补贴为主的粮食补贴政策,并在随后的执行中不断进行完善。本文正是在此背景下对中国粮食补贴政策展开研究,对粮食补贴政策的演变历程及现行粮食补贴政策的实施现状进行了详细分析,并从多个角度对粮食补贴政策展开了理论与实证研究,主要结论如下:一.利用经济学工具对中国粮食补贴政策进行了理论分析。首先从弱质产业扶持论、城乡二元反差协调论、公共物品提供论、利益集团理论及多功能性理论等角度对我国粮食补贴政策的实施依据进行了阐述;然后在此基础上,利用福利经济学及微观经济学中的一些分析工具对中国粮食补贴政策的收入效应、产量效应、结构调整效应以及环境效应等进行了理论分析。二.利用DEA模型对中国现行粮食补贴政策效率进行分析评价。首先从制度经济学角度出发分析了粮食补贴政策效率评价的理论依据;然后利用DEA模型对其进行制度效率、规模效率评价,并对无效原因进行分析,得出如下结论:(1)制度效率有效省份多集中在粮食主产省,无效省份多集中在经济发展较快省份和经济欠佳省份;(2)制度有效的省份也都是规模有效的,对无效省份的规模收益分析可知,青海等经济发展较缓省份规模收益递增,而对于北京、江苏等经济发展较快省份则规模收益递减;(3)通过松弛变量对效率无效省份的分析表明:粮食补贴投入冗余产出不足二者之间存在一定的联系,提高制度效率要从无效原因的分析入手。三.对中国粮食补贴政策的实施效果进行实证分析。首先,利用调查形式对我国粮食补贴政策的实施效果进行描述性分析;然后利用面板模型对粮食补贴政策目标分别进行量化分析:针对我国现行粮食补贴政策执行年限较短,时间序列数据较少的问题,采用面板数据分别对粮食补贴政策的粮食安全和农民增收目标进行了实证分析,结果发现粮食补贴因素对粮食产量影响效果并不显著,对农民收入影响显著;最后在粮食补贴政策背景下,利用博弈分析探讨了粮食安全和农民增收两目标的协同实现问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, China has been at the stage of industrialization. The non-agricultural industries have already been in the leading in national economy. In general, China has the strength of industry supporting agriculture. Agriculture sector is becoming the subsidized object by government. As basic industry of agriculture, grain becomes the emphasis of government subsidy. Because the grain interest is lower, farmer income has become difficult. Severe international grain crisis made protection of national grain security particularly important. At this stage, national grain security and the promotion of farmer income have been the twin goals of China government subsidy. Since the original grain subsidy policy can no longer meet the present stage of economic development, Chinese government began the full implementation of direct subsidies to farmers from 2004. It has been continued to improve in recent years. In this context, the dissertation studied grain subsidy policy from theory and evidence. The main results were followed.The firstly, analyzed China’s grain subsidy policy by the tools of economics. The paper explained the implementation basis of China grain subsidy policy from the weak industry support, the political balance game, the provision of public goods, interest group theory and multi-functional theory. On the basement, the paper analyzed the income effect, yield effect, restructuring effect and environmental effect of current grain subsidy policy by the tools of welfare economics and microeconomics.The secondly, evaluated the efficiency of china current grain subsidy policy by DEA model. From the view of system economics, the paper analyzed the theoretical basis of the efficiency evaluation of grain subsidy policy. Then by DEA model, the analysis was done from system efficiency, scale efficiency. At the same time, it analyzed the invalid reasons. The results were followed. (1) System efficiency provinces mostly concentrated in major grain-producing provinces and invalid provinces concentrated in rapid economic development provinces and poor provinces. (2) System efficiency provinces were mostly scale efficiency. It was known that the scale returns of Qinghai province etc were increasing. But returns of Beijing and Shanghai etc provinces were diminishing. (3) Invalid provinces were done by the slack variable. It was known that there was common contact between over-investment and lack-output. So improving the system efficiency need to begin from invalid reasons.The thirdly, empirically analyzed to the implementation results of china grain subsidy policy. The paper descriptively analyzed to the implementation effect by survey form of China grain subsidy policy. Then the quantitative analysis was carried out for the use of grain subsidy policy objectives by panel model. On the issue of shorter implementation years of current grain subsidy policy and less time-series data, the dissertation has empirically analyzed to the twin goals of grain security and farmer income. The result showed that the influence of grain subsidy variable was not significant for grain production, but was significant for the farmer income. At last, in the context of grain subsidy policy, the dissertation studied the synergy to grain security and peasant income.更多还原