【作者】 刘汝良；

【导师】 贾仁安；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 我国的三农问题由来已久,这一问题背后隐藏的矛盾主要有两个:一是人地关系高度紧张;二是城乡分割的二元社会经济结构。这两大矛盾的解决,主要依赖于农村剩余劳动力的转移。因此,加快农村剩余劳动力转移,是发展农业,富裕农民,繁荣农村经济的有效途径。农村劳动力的转移有两种途径:向城市迁移和从事本地非农业生产活动。前面一种是属于地域流动的范围,即“离乡”;后面一种是属于职业流动的范围,即“离土”。经过三十年改革开放之后,我国的综合国力得到明显增强,人民的生活水平有了很大提高。但同时,由于我国城乡分割的二元社会经济结构的长期存在,使我国的经济发展极不平衡,造成了城市化远落后于工业化、农民的生活水平远低于城镇人口生活水平的局面。随着我国经济的发展,农村人口的人均纯收入虽然在逐年增长,但与城镇人口的差距却是越来越大。正是在这样的历史背景下,我国政府出台了一系列方针政策,以缓和或者解决三农问题。农村劳动力的转移也由此进入一个新的时期。江西是一个传统的农业省份,农村人口占绝大多数。江西的工业不发达,城市化水平比较低,目前的农村劳动力都以外出打工为主,这些特征决定了江西农村劳动力的转移还有一条很长的路要走。本文以人口学、经济学和社会学等理论为基础,以系统的观点为纽带,建立了影响农村劳动力转移的反馈基模;以江西作为研究对象,对江西的人口结构和劳动力转移的现状进行了分析和探讨;建立了多个模型,对江西人口结构和人口迁移的未来变化情况进行了预测,并在此基础上提出了相应的管理对策。本文第一章探讨了农村劳动力转移的研究背景,第二章对相关理论进行了概述,包括劳动力转移理论和系统动力学理论。第三章对国内外劳动力转移历史和现状进行了对比分析。综合已有的研究成果,对美国、日本、英国、韩国和拉美国家的劳动力转移进行了分析,明确了发达国家农村劳动力转移的四条经验:第一、劳动力素质的优化是农村劳动力持续大规模转移的基础;第二、符合国情的土地制度是农村劳动力转移的重要前提;第三、发达的工业和第三产业是农村劳动力转移的基本条件;第四、积极推进小城镇建设,实现农村劳动力的就地转移,是后期劳动力转移的重要途径。并分析了我国农村劳动力转移的现状和特征,为本文进行深入定性定量研究打下了基础。本文的主要研究成果如下:1.对全国农村劳动力转移进行了系统动力学反馈仿真分析。建立了五个全国农村劳动力转移增长上限基模,根据消除增长上限原理,及发达国家的经验,针对就业环境、农村教育及相关制度等因素对农村劳动力转移的影响,提出了促进农村劳动力转移的五条管理对策。建立了由六棵流率基本入树构成的全国农村劳动力转移的定量仿真系统动力学模型,并对六棵树作嵌运算,得到了农村劳动力转移的网络流图,对该流图进行了反馈环分析和计算,在此基础上,对各变量建立了方程,对管理对策的实施进行了定量仿真分析。2.以宋健模型为基础,建立了一个系统动力学模型,对江西省的人口结构进行了预测。预测结果表明,一方面,江西的老龄化现象将会越来越严重;另一方面,江西还有二十年左右的“人口红利”时期。我们应该充分利用好这二十年左右的时间,积极发展江西经济,促进农村劳动力的转移,为江西以后的发展打好基础。3.求出了人口迁移模型的理论解。各种参考资料上只是介绍了人口迁移模型,作者并没有查到求解的文献。本文利用数学方法对迁移模型进行了详细的求解,从而有利于对相关模型的研究。4.建立了江西省基于人口迁移模型Keyfitz模型、Rogers模型和联合国模型的系统动力学模型。以联合国模型的系统动力学模型为例,进行了江西农村、城市人口变化曲线分析,解决了迁移模型定量解方程的难点。5.建立了人口迁移改进模型。由于Keyfitz模型、Rogers模型和联合国模型的系数都是常数,这就使相关变量只能向同一方向变化,这与社会经济的发展现实不符。本文对人口迁移模型进行了改进,把常系数改成了变系数,并在此基础上建立了系统动力学模型,对江西省的农村人口迁移情况进行了预测。结果表明,江西农村可供转移的人口呈逐年下降的趋势。在一定条件下,江西省的农村人口将从2000年的3000万人减少到2050年的627万人,农村人口的战略大转移将有望成功实现。6.分析了农村劳动力的转移对江西经济的影响。江西农村劳动力目前以省外转移为主,但近几年省内务工有不断上升的趋势。2004年首次出现在珠三角地区的民工荒现在也蔓延到了江西。江西农村劳动力过多地向省外转移,将减少本省的人力资本,影响江西经济的发展。而根据预测结果,江西的农村劳动力可供转移的数量将呈递减的趋势。由此决定江西就业思路的转变,应该由过去注重向沿海输出农村劳动力向省内省外就业并重的方针上来,引导外出农民工返乡务工和创业,促进江西经济的全面发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 San-nong issue in China has been for a long time, there are two contradictions hidden behind the san-nong issue, one is the tense relationship between people and land, the other is the division of the economic structure between urban and rural.To resolve these two contradictions mainly depends on the transfer of rural surplus labor. Therefore, speeding up the transfer of rural surplus labor is an effective way of the development of agriculture, affluent farmers, rural economic prosperity.The transfer of rural labor force in two ways: migration to the cities and to engage in local non-agricultural production activities. The former is a range of geographical mobility, that is "leave the village"; the latter is a range of occupational mobility, that is "leave the land".After 30 years of reform and opening up, China’s overall national strength has been increased, people’s living standards greatly improved. But at the same time, as a result of China’s double economic structure of urban-rural split long existence, there is unbalanced economic development between urban and rural,which has caused that urbanization is far behind industrialization, the living standard of the farmers is much lower than the urban people. With China’s economic developing, the net income per year of the farmeres raises, but the gap between urban and rural is growing. The Chinese government issued a series of principles and policies to alleviate or solve the problem of agriculture on this historical background. The transfer of rural labor has thus entered a new period.Jiangxi is a traditional agricultural province, there is the vast majority of the rural population. Jiangxi’s industry-developed, the level of urbanization is relatively low, the current labor in rural areas are mainly migrant workers, which determines the characteristics of Jiangxi’s rural labor transfer is still a long way to go.Based on population, economics and sociology theory, this dissertation researches about demographic structure and the transfer of rural labor of Jiangxi Province, it discusses and analyses their status quoes elaborately at first, then establishes many models,which predictes the structure and the migration of population in the future and puts forward the corresponding management measures. Chapter1 of this article discusses the research background of the rural labor force transfer. Chapter2 summarizes the related theory, including the labor transfer theory and system dynamics theory. Chapter3 carries out a comparative analysis about the history and the status quo of labor at home and abroad, it analyzes the labor transfer of the United States, Japan, Britain, South Korea and Latin American integrated with research results and defines four pieces of experience about the developed countries of the rural labor force transfer. Firstly, optimizing the quality of the labor force is the basis of continuing large-scale transfer of rural labor; Secondly, the rural land system in line with our national conditions is an important prerequisite for the labor transfer; Thirdly, developed industry and tertiary sectors is the basic condition of the rural labor force transfer; Fourthly, promoting the construction of small towns actively and making rural labor transfer on the spot is an important way of the latter part of the labor movement. It analyzes the current situation and characteristics of China’s rural labor force transfer, which is the foundation of deeply qualitative and quantitative researches in the following.The main research results are as follows:1. Feedback and simulation analysis of rural labor transfer in China using the system dynamics.It establishes five mode-cap growth archetypes about national rural labor transfer. According to the principle of the elimination of growth and the experience of developed countries, it puts forward five management methods to promote the rural labor force transfer considering the influence of the employment environment, rural education system and related factors.It builds up quantitative simulation system dynamics model of China’s rural labor force transfer that is made up of six basic rate inflow trees, gives embedded computing about six trees, gets network flow map of the transfer of rural labor force, analyzes and calculates the feedback circle of the flow chart. Basing on above, it establishes the equation of variables and gives quantitative simulation analysis of the implementation of management methods.2. Setting up a system dynamics model based on the Songjian population model and predicting demographic structure of Jiangxi.The prediction shows: on the one hand, the aging phenomenon will be more and more serious in Jiangxi; on the other hand, Jiangxi Province has about 20 years’ "demographic dividend" period. We should make full use of this good 20 years or so to develop Jiangxi’s economy and promote the transfer of rural labor to lay a good foundation for future development in Jiangxi Province.3. Obtaining a theoretical solution of migration model.All kinds of references just introduce the migration model,but do not solve it. This dissertation solve transport model in detail by the mathematical method, which is conducive to the research about the model.4. Establishing the migration system dynamics model of Jiangxi Province based on Keyfitz model, Rogers model and the model of the United Nations.Taking United Nations system dynamics model as example, it carries out the urban population curve analysis of rural areas in Jiangxi Province and overcomes difficulties of quantitative solution about the migration model.5. Building up the better migration model.As the Keyfitz model, Rogers model and the model of the United Nations use constant coeffcient, which makes related variable change in the same direction, it is incompatible with social and economic development. In this dissertation, it improves the migration model, turns the coefficient into the variable coefficients, establishes system dynamics model and forecasts the situation on the transfer of rural labor in Jiangxi Province. The results show that under certain conditions, the rural population of Jiangxi Province will reduce to 627 million in 2050 from 3,000 million in 2000, the strategic shift of the major rural population is expected to achieve success.6. Analysis of the influence to Jiangxi’s economy about rural labor force transfer.At present, the rural labor in Jiangxi transfer mainly to foreign province, but in recent years, workers in the Jiangxi province are constantly on the rise.Shortage of workers in the Pearl River Delta region for the first time in 2004 now spreads to the Jiangxi Province. Too much of the rural labor force in Jiangxi transfer to the outside will reduce the province’s human capital, affects the economic development of Jiangxi. According to the prediction results, the number of rural labor force for the transfer in Jiangxi will reduce, which causes the change of the way looking for job in Jiangxi Province, it changes from focusing on exporting the rural labor to the coastal province to the principle of attaching equal importance to both inside and outside, guiding the migrant workers return to work and entrepreneurship, promoting the comprehensive development of Jiangxi’s economy.更多还原