【作者】 邵伟钰；

【导师】 万解秋；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 金融学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 转轨时期我国地方政府面临着经济分权与政治集权的制度环境,地方政府已成为具有独立经济利益和分散决策权的重要主体。我国分税制改革推出后,在明显地强化和改善了中央宏观调控能力的同时,又不同程度地提高了各地方对中央财政的依赖度,由此引起地方政府的资金困境。随着市场经济深化和政府职能转变,地方政府为了调整经济结构、加快基础设施建设,运用多种融资方式,多渠道筹集建设资金,在一定程度上有力推动了地方经济建设和社会事业发展。但是,由于对地方政府缺乏必要的立法规范和有效监管,地方政府形成了多头、无序的融资局面,随之而来的是地方政府明里、暗里举债,显性和隐性债务负担日益严重。由于地方政府财政窘迫,偿债能力有限,债务风险日益突出,已经产生很多负面影响。既然地方政府债务问题在我国已无法避免,而且规模巨大、已形成风险,与其遮遮掩掩,不如公开面对、予以规范、加强管理。为防范和化解风险隐患,确保经济金融平稳运行,必须加强地方政府债务管理,那么如何预警风险就显得尤为迫切。在这种情况下,本文选择地方政府债务风险预警体系进行研究,希望能有助于风险预警,并采取相应对策,防御、降低风险。第一章评述了国内外在地方政府债务风险及其预警方面的研究成果和不足。第二章首先从债务负担和地方政府可支配资源两方面对地方政府债务风险进行界定,强调了地方政府双重主体身份,作为公共主体和经济主体,地方政府融资手段不同,由此形成的债务风险也不同。然后,从分权改革和地方政府竞争、行政管理体制缺陷、财政体制不完善、过度的市场化融资、债务管理缺乏规范以及经济体制转轨多层次多角度,全面分析地方政府债务风险形成机制。第三章建立了地方政府债务风险评估预警的理论框架。指出从总体层面和项目层面相结合构建地方政府债务风险预警基本框架,分析探讨了地方政府债务风险预警体系内涵、预警目标、预警程序、预警方法,并定性构建了相对完善的地方政府债务风险预警指标体系。第四章以江苏省为例对地方政府债务风险进行模拟分析。首先分析了江苏省地方政府债务和可支配资源现状,无论是流量经济资源,还是存量经济资源,都可以看出江苏省可用于抵御地方政府债务风险的资源是很紧张的。农村税费改革、规范土地出让金、加强社会保险资金的监督管理、紧缩地方融资政策等无疑将加剧地方政府债务风险。然后运用江苏省2000-2004年相关数据,在定性预警指标体系基础上,运用聚类分析法建立实际有效的指标体系,通过因子分析法,找出预警指标4个公共因子,分别是狭义债务风险因子、赤字风险因子、或有风险因子和收入结构风险因子。运用汤姆生因子得分法,得到公共因子以及风险临界值的得分,在此基础上借助神经网络理论构建地方政府债务风险预警模型,对2005年江苏省地方政府债务风险进行预警。目前由于体制的原因,政府动力不足,所以,监控和预警赋之于实践并且法制化还远不能做到,地方政府债务管理意识还没有真正树立起来,地方政府债务风险预警结果能否付诸于实施,防御、降低债务风险必须有相关制度建设配合。为此,本文第五章提出了一系列制度建设建议。包括建立地方政府债务风险预警组织体系、地方政府债务风险预警法规化、建立地方政府债务风险信息披露制度、建立偿债基金制度、建立地方政府债务风险预警结果处理机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 During the transition period of China’s local governments, economic and political decentralization of the system of centralized environment, the local government has become an independent economic interests and decentralized decision-making power of the main important. After the introduction of the reform of China’s System of Tax Distribution, is obviously to strengthen and improve macro-control capacity of the central authorities at the same time, to varying degrees, all localities to increase the dependence on the central finance, the resulting plight of local government funding. As the market economy and deepen the transformation of government functions, local governments in order to readjust the economic structure, speeding up infrastructure construction, the use of various means of financing, through various channels to raise funds for construction, to a certain extent on strong impetus to local economic construction and social development of the cause. However, because the local governments lack the necessary legislative norms and effective supervision, the local government formed a long, the financing situation of disorder, the attendant is that local governments, covertly borrowing, dominant and recessive debt burden is becoming increasingly serious. As the local government financial distress, limited solvency, debt risks have become increasingly prominent, have produced many negative effects.Since the debt problem in China’s local governments have been unable to avoid, but large-scale, has formed risks, and its concealment, better public face, be standardized, strengthen management. To guard against and defuse potential risks to ensure the smooth operation of economy and finance, local governments need to strengthen debt management, how early warning on the risk it is particularly urgent. In such circumstances, I choose the local government debt risk early warning system to study, hoping to contribute to the risk of early warning and to take corresponding countermeasures, defense, reducing risk.Review of the first chapter of the domestic and foreign debt in local government and its early warning of the risks of research results and inadequate. Chapter II First, from the debt burden and local government resources available to both local government debt risks defined, the local government stressed that the main dual identity as a public body and economic entities, different means of financing local government, the resulting debt risks Are also different. Then, from the decentralization of local government reform and competition, the administrative system defects, imperfect financial system, excessive market-oriented finance, debt management and a lack of standardized economic system restructuring and multi-level multi-angle, a comprehensive analysis of local government debt risk mechanism.Chapter III of the establishment of the local government debt risk assessment warning of theoretical framework. That the overall level of integration and project level debt risk early warning local governments build the basic framework for analysis of the local government debt risk early warning system meaning, early warning objectives, early warning procedures, early warning methods, and build a qualitative improvement of local government debt relative risk warning Index System.Chapter IV of Jiangsu Province as an example of local government debt risk simulation analysis. First of Jiangsu Province, local government debt and available resources of both flow of economic resources, economic resources or stock, can be seen in Jiangsu province can be used to resist the resources of local government debt risk is very tense. Rural tax and fee reform, standardizing the land transfer payment, social insurance funds to strengthen the supervision and management of local financing policy tightening, such as local government debt will undoubtedly aggravate the risk. Jiangsu Province, and then use the data from 2000 to 2004, in the qualitative indicators of early warning system based on the use of cluster analysis to establish practical and effective system of indicators, through factor analysis to identify early warning indicators of four public factor, which are narrow debt risks Factor, the deficit risk factor, or a risk factor and revenue structure risk factor. Thomson factor scoring method used by the public as well as risk factors critical value of the scoring, on the basis of this theory with neural network build local government debt risk early warning model, the 2005 Jiangsu Province, local government debt risk warning.Because the reasons for the current system, the power shortage, therefore, monitor and give early warning of the legal system and practice is still far failed to do, local government debt management awareness has not really established, the local government debt risk early warning can put the results in Implementation of defense, reducing the risk of debt must be related with the building of the system. To this end, the paper put forward a series of Chapter 5 of the proposed system the building. Including the establishment of local government debt risk early warning system organizations, local government debt risk early warning and regulations, establishment of local government debt risk information disclosure system, and actively establish and implement the sinking fund system, the establishment of local government debt risk early warning mechanism for handling results.更多还原