【作者】 陈飞；

【导师】 舒华英；

【作者基本信息】 北京邮电大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 电信业是国民经济发展和信息化建设的基础性产业,技术的进步和经济全球一体化使我国电信业面临激烈的竞争挑战。目前中国电信业取得了巨大成就,但其发展现状仍然不能适应国民经济发展的要求,还存在对外开放程度低、产业协调性差、自主创新能力弱、国际竞争力不强等诸多问题。我国电信业正面临调整和转型。振兴电信业将是我国当前和今后相当长时期内的一项重大任务。由于传统产业经济理论在研究电信产业经济具有一定的局限性,因此需要我们以新的视角来加深对电信业的研究。系统研究电信产业演化问题具有重要理论价值和现实意义。本文把电信产业看作一个复杂的系统。从演化的角度,综合运用自组织理论、灰色系统理论、复杂适应系统理论等多学科知识,结合电信业的行业特色和实际存在的问题,采用定量和定性分析相结合、类比和移植、多主体建模等方法对电信业系统自组织演化发展的耗散结构特性、基本动力、实现途径和演化内外部表现形势等几个方面进行了应用研究。具体研究内容如下:(1)分析了电信产业系统内部构成主体要素、结构、特性和电信产业的外部环境,并定量分析了电信产业系统的复杂性。本文采用Takens嵌入定理和时间延迟的相空间重构思想,构造出电信业经济指标的时间序列吸引子。通过计算关联维对电信业经济指标时间序列的复杂性进行了判定,证实了我国电信产业系统是一个复杂系统。(2)从系统的角度界定了电信产业演化发展的内涵。对电信产业演化机制进行了分析,本文认为电信产业的演化发展是自组织和他组织的复合作用。基于自组织研究的可行性,对电信产业系统进行耗散条件的判据和熵分析,运用布鲁塞尔器分析了电信产业系统形成耗散结构的机制和条件。(3)综合运用协同学及灰色系统建模方法建立电信产业系统协同演化模型,求出系统演化的序参量,即用户需求、电信投资和业务创新这三个序参量决定了电信产业演化的方向。从演化模型中可以看出我国电信产业正在由投资驱动转向创新驱动和市场需求驱动。本文还从企业内部、产业链内部,产业链之间等三个层次出发分析了电信产业系统中的协同与竞争机制。运用复杂适应系统理论和多主体建模方法对运营商和SP协同机制做了经济仿真分析,进一步揭示市场的自组织行为。(4)从超循环和突变的角度对电信产业系统演化发展的实现途径进行分析。本文指出电信产业系统子系统的内部和子系统之间都存在着超循环。这些超循环有助于产业系统的各主体要素和子系统的竞争与协同。通过不断扩大的超循环链条,电信产业系统内部涨落现象带来的局部渐变得到积累,使得涨落突破一定的阈值,最终导致电信产业系统的整体突变现象的出现。而电信产业系统外部演化途径是电信产业系统演化的渐变和突变的两种形式。通过系统的外在渐变和突变的表现形式,电信产业系统表现出从无序到有序的演化发展途径。电信产业系统的突变与通信技术的发展有着紧密联系。(5)本文在实证分析中验证了我国电信产业系统演化过程遵循Logstic方程曲线,并得出电信业、移动通信业、固定通信业和电信设备制造业的演化轨迹。同时,本文还运用自组织理论分析了我国电信产业演化发展中存在的问题。针对这项问题,提出了我国发展3G产业的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Telecommunication industry is fundamental to the development of national economy and informationization of other industries. Because of technological progress and the globalization of world economy, Chinese telecom industry is facing intensive competitive challenges. At present, China’s telecom industry has made great achievements, but it still can not meet the requirements of the national economy development. There are many problems, such as a low level of opening to the outside, the poor coordination of sub-systems, the poor capability of independent innovation, the weakness of international competitiveness, and so on. China’s telecom industry is facing the adjustment and transformation. The revitalization of China’s telecommunications industry will be a major mission at present and in the future. The limitations of the traditional industry economy theory are gradually revealed in the study of the telecom industrial economy. A new perspective is needed, from which the telecom industry can be studied deeply. A systematic research on the evolution of the telecom industry has an important theoretical value and practical significance. In this dissertation, the telecom industry is regarded as a complex system whose dissipative structure character, basic driving force, ways of realization and evolutionary internal and external manifestations are studied from the view of self-organization evolution. And some multidisciplinary knowledge is comprehensively used, including self-organization theory, the gray system theory and complex adaptive systems theory. Through the whole process of research, the characteristics and practical problems of telecom industry are taken into account carefully. The methods of the quantitative and qualitative analysis, analog and transplantation analysis, and multi-agent system modeling are adopted to research the evolopment of telecom industry. Specific studies are as follows:(1) The main elements of system which constitute the telecom industry, together with their functions and the external environment, are firstly analyzed. Then the complexity characteristics of the telecom industry system are also analyzed. In this paper, Taken’s embedding theorem and the time delay phase space reconstruction ideology are used to construct the time series of economic indicators (that is, the total amount of telecommunication services of the telecom industry). By calculating the fractal dimension of the time series, the telecom industry is proved to be a complex system.(2) The self-organization mechanism of the telecom industry is analyzed from the point of system. We think that the evolution developmentof the telecom industry is a complicated result of self-organization and hetero-organization. Based on the feasibility of self-organization, the dissipative structure criterion of the telecom industry and the entropy are analyzed. By using Brusselator, the instability condition and mechanism, which result in that telecom industry becomes a dissipative system, are quantitatively analyzed.(3) The synergetic evolution model of telecom industry is established by synergy and gray system modeling method, and synergetic order parameter of telecom industry system is drawn. The order parameter is the user demand, telecommunications investment and innovation of telecom services. These three order parameters simultaneously decided the the evolutionary direction of telecom industry. From the synergy model it concludes that the driving force of China’s telecom industry evolution is shifting from investment-driven mode to innovation-driven and demand-driven mode. Meanwhile, the telecom industry collaboration and competition mechanism is analyzed from the different levels including the enterprise level, industry chain analysis level. Finally, based on complex adaptive system theory and multi-agent modeling method, the coordination mechanism between telecom operators and SP is analyzed by computer simulation.(4) The evolution development path of telecom industry is analyzed by means of the hypercycle and catastrophe theory. There exits hypercycles among the internal elements of each subsystem and among subsystems of telecom industry system. These hypercycles induced the competition and collaboration among the main elements of subsystems and among subsystems of telecom industrial systems. Through these expanding hypercycle chains, fluctuation phenomena of the system will bring the accumulation of local changes. When the accumulation exceeds a certain threshold, it eventually leads to catastrophe phenomenon of the telecom industry. The external evolution way of the telecom industry system shows two forms, that is gradual evolution and calamity. Through the external gradual change and calamity forms of the system, the telecom industry system follows the evolutionary approaches from disorder to order development. Telecom industry system calamity is closely linked with the development of communication technology. Telecom industry value chain’s structural change is caused usually by the development of communication technology.(5) Based on demonstration analysis, it is validated that the evolutionary process of China’s telecom industry follows Logistic curve. At the same time, the problems in the China’s telecom industry development are analyzed by using self-organization theory. And the correspondent strategies of the 3G telecom industry development are put forward.更多还原