【作者】 邱微；

【导师】 赵庆良；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 环境科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 随着近代科学技术的飞速发展,世界经济的突飞猛进,人类社会步入历史的新阶段。与此同时,环境污染与生态破坏日益彰显,生态安全制约了区域的可持续发展,成为当今世界普遍关注的核心问题。生态安全是影响国家安全和可持续发展的重要方面,也是其它安全的基础和载体。为了开展生态安全的系统性研究,本论文的评估方法包括定量评价研究区域的生态安全现状、预测生态安全的发展趋势,结合实际调控生态安全状况。从目前国内外生态安全研究来看,生态安全定量评价、动态研究仍处于探索阶段,以省域为研究对象,结合生态省建设开展生态安全评价、预测及调控的研究还不多见。本课题利用相对资源承载力、生态承载力等模型,通过对生态安全的系统评估,定量分析黑龙江省生态安全的现状。采用“压力-状态-响应”模型,运用层次分析法、灰色理论和因子分析等方法,探讨生态安全评价、预测与调控的机理和方法,提出生态安全调控措施,具有创新意义。研究结果有利于黑龙江省全面开展生态建设与生态环境保护工作,有助于加深区域生态系统对全球变化反应的理解,旨在为政府有关部门制定科学的应对策略和措施、在考核评估生态安全建设等方面,提供数据支持和理论指导。通过辨识黑龙江省复合生态系统的现状,明确黑龙江省区域生态环境存在的问题,应用相对资源承载力、生态承载力等分析方法,并对传统的相对资源承载力方法适当改进,以黑龙江省1995-2006年时间序列统计数据作为定量计算的基础,定量评价黑龙江省生态、环境、经济的可持续发展状况,从而科学地论证开展黑龙江省生态安全评价、预测和调控研究的必要性和迫切性。研究结果表明对黑龙江省发展起支撑作用的资源承载力主要是自然资源,计算得出黑龙江省1995-2006年均为生态赤字,与黑龙江省实际情况相吻合。结合黑龙江省的实际特点,以“压力-状态-响应”模型为框架,构建黑龙江省生态安全评价指标体系,共选取28项评价指标。综合对比指标体系的各类赋权方法,应用层次分析法结合MATLAB6.5软件编程,计算各指标的权重,运用生态安全度计算模型,定量地对黑龙江省1999-2006年的生态安全情况分级,分析黑龙江省生态安全的演替规律,确定研究时间段黑龙江省生态安全等级。得到1999年-2006年黑龙江省生态安全度呈现不断增长的趋势,特别是2000年黑龙江省开展生态省建设后,生态安全的总体情况向更高等级发展。基于生态安全系统的灰色特征,结合层次分析法计算权重的结果,从压力-状态-响应系统中选取9项指标,作为影响生态安全的关键因素。将灰色关联方法应用于分析影响生态安全因素的重要性排序,确定影响力最大的因素。结果表明,工业总产值对黑龙江省生态安全的影响程度最大,其次是人均国内生产总值,排在第三位的是城市环境空气质量二级标准达标率。对比各类预测模型及方法,选择灰色动态模型,应用MATLAB6.5软件,编写灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的计算程序,预测黑龙江省2007-2010年生态安全的发展趋势,为生态安全的预测和调控奠定坚实基础。根据生态安全灰色关联度的分析结果,考虑从产业结构调整的角度调控生态安全状况。应用因子分析法,结合SPSS统计分析软件,计算得到19个行业的排序,根据黑龙江省产业发展的实际状况,筛选出装备制造业、石化工业和能源工业为主导产业,食品工业为支柱产业。从经济社会可持续发展的全局出发,构建区域生态安全战略的政策框架,提出黑龙江省的生态安全的调控对策,促进省域复合生态系统的可持续发展,保障生态安全状况。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with scientific technology development at vast speed in latter-day, the world economy advances rapidly, and the human society enters into a new history phase. At the same time, environment pollution and ecological destroy emerge day by day. Ecological security restricts the regional sustainable development and becomes a major problem which is widely regarded by the world. Ecological security is the important aspect that affects the state security and sustainable development. It is the base and carrier of the other security. In order to study the ecological security systematically, the estimating method includes assessing the ecological security status, forecasting the development trend and regulation in the thesis. Ecological security quantitative assessment and dynamic research still under the explore stage by the domestic and overseas research. It is seldom to take the province as an object and combine the ecological province construction to study the ecological security assessment, forecasting and adjustment.It utilizes the relative resource capacity and ecological footprint model and by ecological security systemic evaluating to quantitative analysis the ecological security status of Heilongjiang Province. It applies the Press-State-Response model, Analytical Hierarchy Process, Grey Theory and Factor Analysis to discuss the methods of ecological security assessment, forecasting and regulation. It suggests the ecological security adjustment policy. The research has innovation meaning. The results are in favor of the work for ecological construction and ecological environment protect in Heilongjiang Province. It is contributed to comprehend deeply the regional ecological system response for the global movement. It aims to supply the data support and theory guide for establishing the strategy and measure and assessing the ecological security construction.The study identifies the command ecological system status in Heilongjiang Province and confirms the existent problems in ecological environment. It applies relative resource capacity model and ecological footprint model, and improves the relative resource capacity model. It collects the time serial statistic data (1995-2006) for quantitative calculating. By assessing the ecological, environment and economy sustainable development, it demonstrates the necessity and urgency for studying the ecological security assessment, forecasting and adjustment in Heilongjiang Province. The results show that the natural resource capacity support the development of Heilongjiang Province. The ecological capacity is ecological deficit from 1995 to 2006. It accords with the fact of Heilongjiang Province.Combining the actual characteristic of Heilongjiang Province, it frames the Press-State-Response model to build the ecological security assessment index. There are 28 indicators. By contrasting the weighting methods, it applies the Analytical Hierarchy Process with MATLAB6.5 to calculate the weights of the indicators. It uses the Ecological Security Index model to classify the ecological security status for the years of 1999-2006. By analyzing the ecological security succession, it confirms the ecological security grade in Heilongjiang Province during the year of 1999-2006. The results show that the ecological security index presents increasing trend, especilally from the ecological province construction in 2000. The ecological security grade grows to the high level.Base on the grey characteristic of the ecological security system, combining the weights by Analytical Hierarchy Process, it chooses 9 indicators as the ecological security key factors from Press-State-Response model. It applies Grey Relational Analysis to sequence the ecological security key factors and confirms the most influence factor. The most important indicator is gross industrial output value, the much important indicator is per capita gross domestic product, and the third is percentage of urban air quality reachedⅡstandard. Contrasting the forecasting model and methods, it chooses Grey Dynamic Model with MATLAB6.5 to compile the calculate program for GM(1,1). Over passing the accuracy test, it forecasts the ecological security development trend for the year 2007-2010. It offers a stability base for ecological security forecasting and adjustment.According to the results of Grey Relational Degree, it regulates the ecological security by adjusting the industrial structure. It uses Factor Analysis with SPSS to calculate the sequences of the 19 industries. On the basis of the industry development status, it screens out the leading industry (Equipment manufactury, Petrified industry, Energy industry) and mainstay industry (Food industry). For the economy and society sustainable development, it builds the regional ecological security strategically policy framework and it suggests the ecological security adjustment policy. It will accelerate sustainable development of the compound ecological system, and guarantee the ecological security state.更多还原