【作者】 赵松涛；

【导师】 匡小平；

【作者基本信息】 江西财经大学 ， 财政学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 1994年税制改革之后,中国税收收入的增长速度已经连续十多年超过宏观经济增长速度。根据经济决定税收,而税收又反作用于经济的基本原理,这种现象难以用经济学理论解释,但的确又是一个不争的事实。进入20世纪以来,税收持续超GDP增长的现象已经引起了政府部门、学术理论界的广泛关注,关于这一现象的成因、合理性及经济影响存在着一定的争论。其中争论的焦点又集中在税收是否存在超常增长的问题上,争辩双方各执己见至今尚未有定论。本文在吸收国内外最新研究成果的基础上,以我国经济发展和税收增长实际情况为背景,筛选并分析了大量有关税收及宏观经济的数据,通过定性研究与定量研究相结合的方法对我国税收增长问题进行了深入研究和深层次的剖析。在研究的过程中,主要对以下几个问题展开分析:税收持续超GDP增长如何形成?税收增长对经济增长到底起了什么作用?税收持续超GDP增长是否正常?税收保持怎样的增长速度才有利于我国的经济增长?这些问题不仅涉及对于我国税收增长性质的判断,而且涉及税收和经济增长的关系等一系列重大理论问题,更将对未来我国财政税收的政策选择和制度安排产生深远的影响。围绕这几个主要问题,本文研究思路与基本框架如下:1、序论。对本文的研究做基础性工作。包括:一是通过提出问题,简单介绍研究的背景和内容;二是介绍论文的结构及主要内容、论文的创新之处。2、国内外关于税收增长的理论研究。系统阐述税收与经济增长关系的相关理论与模型,并对它们进行分析与评述,提出了本文关于税收增长研究的理论基础与分析模式。3、描述税收收入持续超GDP增长现象的背景和脉络,总结出1994—2008年间我国税收增长的主要规律与特征等。并具体分析了税收增长的形成机制,即分析几大主要因素,包括经济因素、政策因素、征管因素在税收增长中所起的作用,以及各因素是如何发挥作用致使税收呈现高增长态势。本文通过事实和数据两方面分析税收增长的原因,这种分析摒弃了以往单纯的计量分析或是单纯的事实分析,而是将两者更紧密地结合起来,这对解释税收增长的原因将会是一大改进。4、针对税收增长程度难以量化的问题,本文选取了宏观税负与边际宏观税负这两个最能代表税收增长的指标,建立了我国税收与国民经济以及主要经济指标的相关模型,分析税收持续高速增长对于经济的影响,通过实证检验了现阶段税收增长对于经济增长存在着比较明显的负面影响,从而得出我国税收已经处于超常增长状态的总体判断。以往我国学者对于税收是否超常增长的问题也进行过一些研究,但是这些研究所采取的方法都是针对税收增长在一段时间内的平均水平,无法体现不同阶段税收增长的动态特征,而国民经济对于税收增长的承载能力也是动态变化的。因此,以往的研究结论并不能对税收超常增长问题做出准确判断。本文则利用可变参数估计的方法建立动态最优税负模型,估计出我国合理宏观税负水平的动态区间,并以此作为区分不同时期税收正常增长与超常增长的基本标准。由此可以确定在1994—2008年间,税收出现超常增长现象的起始阶段、持续时间以及变化趋势。5、采取定量和定性相结合的方法对未来几年税收增长进行预测。首先分析受全球金融危机影响下的我国宏观经济走势,影响税收增长的经济因素、政策因素以及征管因素均发生了较大变化;再运用计量模型预测未来几年内的税收增长幅度;以预测结果为依据总结出10余年间税收增长的周期性规律,并在此基础上对税收超常增长是否持续下去做出最终的判断。本文的研究结论为:1、1994年税制改革之后我国税收收入的年平均增长幅度是GDP增长幅度的近2倍,究其成因在于经济因素、政策因素、征管因素这三大主要因素。2、税收持续超GDP增长对国民经济的负面影响日益凸现。通过税收与国民经济以及主要经济指标的计量模型分析,得出结论:现阶段我国税收存在着超常增长问题,其对经济增长的抑止效用明显。然而税收超常增长状态并非贯穿于1994—2008年的始终,具体而言:从经济增长最大化的角度分析,税收出现超常增长问题始于2003年并一直延续至今;而从税收收入最大化的角度分析,我国的宏观税负水平从2005年开始进入拉弗曲线中的“税收禁区”,税收从此处于超常增长状态。3、税收增长的预测结果显示,2009年税收收入预计60135.3亿元,增长12.2%;2010年为68272.2亿元,增长14.1%。从2008年底开始我国税收增长基本处于下滑趋势,税收即将进入了一轮增长周期的收缩阶段。税收增长即将经历由波峰至波谷的转变,预示着持续了数年的税收超常增长现象终将结束。此外,从税收的最优增长路径的角度分析,假定未来几年内国民经济保持8%—9%的增长速度,那么税收增长率控制在12%—15%幅度内则可以保持宏观税负基本与动态最优税负曲线重合。而预测得到的未来两年税收增长率恰恰处于这个区间内,这说明税收的增长正朝着最优增长路径趋近,逐步实现税收与经济均衡可持续增长。税收超常增长问题是一个较为复杂的理论问题和实践问题,涉及的内容较多,要全面透彻的研究是一项艰巨的工作。再加上笔者才疏学浅,虽然付出了艰苦的努力,但文章中的纰漏仍然较多。例如:第一,在理论的研究上还不充分,参考的国内外文献不够系统,尤其是对当代西方经济学家对于税收问题的最新研究成果研究不够细致。第二,由于收集有关统计数据的困难和计算方法的差异,在一定程度上影响了分析的深度,对于有利于我国经济增长的税收最优增长路径还有待于进一步研究。第三,2008年下半年经济形势的变化,加大了对未来税收增长进行预测分析的难度,预测结果难免会有误差。等等这些都期待着专家的批评指正,以便于笔者进一步深化研究和探索。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform on tax system inl994, the growth rate of Chinese tax revenue has been exceeded macro-economy’ s growth rate for more than a decade. According to the principle of which economies decide tax revenue while tax revenue feeds back to economies, this phenomenon is difficult to explain by economic theory, but it is an indisputable fact. Since the beginning of the 20th century, the phenomenon of tax revenue growth continued surpasses GDP growth has attracted wide attention from government, academic community, with regards to the cause of this phenomenon, whether is reasonable and the impact of economies always has controversy. The focus of the contention is focused on whether the growth of tax revenue is over-growth, both sides of the argument, each stick to their own version and still no final conclusion.In this thesis, absorption in the latest research results, background is the revenue of Chinese economic development and the actual situation growth of tax revenue, screening and analysis of a large amount data of the tax revenue and macro-economy, combining with qualitative and quantitative research methods, focusing on Chinese over-growth of the tax revenue to do a in-depth research and analysis. In the course of research, we analysis about the following issues: the formation of tax revenues continuing surpasses GDP growth? What’ s the function of tax revenues growth to the economic growth? Tax revenues continuing surpass GDP growth normal? How to maintain revenue growth rate will help China’s economic growth? These problems not only for how to determine the nature of our tax revenue growth, but also involve a series of important theoretical issues between economic growth and tax revenue growth, but also will have a profound impact of Chinese fiscal’ s policy options and institutional arrangements revenue in the future. Focus on these major issues, this paper has the basic framework of ideas as follows:1、Introduction. It is the basic work of this study. Including: First, through bring out questions to give a short presentation and content of the background of the study; second, introduce this paper’ s structure and main contents and the creative of this thesis.2、The theoretical study of Domestic revenue growth. Formulated the relevant theories and models between tax and economic growth, analysis and comment on them, present the research of tax increase and analysis mode.3、Describe the background and thread of thought of phenomenon which tax revenues continuing surpass GDP growth, summing up the characteristics and rules of Chinese tax revenues increase from 1994 to 2008. And System Analysis the formation mechanism of tax revenue growth, that is, analysis of several key factors, including economic factors, policy factors and tax administration factors which in the role of tax revenue growth, as well as how to play a role to led the high growth. In this thesis, analysis the tax revenue growth reason by both the facts and data, this analysis discard the simple previous quantitative analysis or simple facts analysis, but combine the two facts close together, this explain is a big improve of the reason of tax revenues increase.4、For the problem of tax revenue growth extent is difficult to quantify, this thesis selected the macro-tax burden and the limit tax burden which two most representativeness of tax revenue growth, establish the model of our tax revenue , country economic and major economic indicators, to analyze the influence of tax continued high-speed growth for the economy, through the empirical examination proving the tax continued high-speed growth has negative effect at economic growth, thereby educe our tax revenue is in a state of extraordinary growth. In the past, our scholars also done some research about whether our tax revenue growth is over-growth, but the way of this research is about the average level of tax revenue growth in a period, which can’ t embody the behavioral characteristics, but the national Economy carrying capacity for the tax revenue growth is behavioral change also. So the conclusions of previous studies can not make accurate judgments for the over-growth of tax revenue. In this thesis using the variable method of parameter estimation of dynamic optimal tax model, it is estimated that Chinese macro tax burden level of a reasonable dynamic range, and to distinguish between different periods of time as normal revenue growth and the extraordinary growth of the basic criteria. This can confirm in the years 1994-2008, the tax appears the phenomenon of extraordinary growth in start-up phase, duration and trends.5、Take a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to predict tax revenue growth in the future years. First analysis the influence of global financial crisis in our country for macro-economic trends, the impact of revenue growth, economic factors, policy factors, as well as collection and management factors are major changes; re-use of measurement models to predict in the next few years, the growth rate of the tax; to predict the results the basis of summing up more than 10 years, the cyclical nature of the tax laws of growth and, in this based on extraordinary revenue growth continue to make final judgments.The concluded of this study:1、After the tax reform in 1994, Chinese tax revenue growth rate of average annual GDP growth rate is nearly 2 times, the root causes are three main factors: the economic factors, policy factors, and collection and management factors.2、Negative effects of tax revenue growth continued surpass GDP growth is more and more clear. Through the tax and the national economy as well as the major economic indicators of the econometric model analysis, get the conclusion: there is at this stage of China’s extraordinary revenue growth, its commitment to curb the effectiveness of economic growth significantly. However, state revenue growth is not extraordinary throughout the years of 1994-2008 has, in particular: the maximization of economic growth from the point of view, appears extraordinary revenue growth in 2003 and has continued so far; to maximize the tax revenue from the perspective of analysis of the level of China’s macro tax burden starting in 2005 to enter the Laffer curve, the "tax forbidden area " then the tax revenue growth is in the extraordinary growth.3、The predict consequences the tax revenue growth showed that tax revenue in 2009 is expected to 6013. 53 billion yuan, increased 12. 2 percent; in 2010 to 6827. 22 billion yuan, increased 14.1 percent. From the beginning of the end of 2008 revenue growth in China is basically in decline, the tax is about to enter a round of the contraction phase of growth cycle. The growth of tax revenue is about to from peak to trough change, indicates that lasted a few years the tax will end the phenomenon of extraordinary growth. In addition, the optimal revenue growth from the perspective of the path analysis, it is assumed that the national economy in the next few years will keep 8% -9% growth rate, then the revenue growth rate of 12% -15% range to maintain macro-tax burden can be basic and dynamic optimal tax coincidence curve. And predicted revenue growth rate of the next two years precisely in this range, indicating the growth of tax revenue is moving closer to the optimal growth path, and gradually achieve a balanced tax and economic sustainable growth.Tax Revenue over-growth is a complexly theoretical and practical problem, involving a lot of the contents, is a difficult task to do a comprehensive and thorough research. In addition, penman little talent and less learning, although I work hard, still have a lot of weak points in the article. For example: First, the study of theory is not sufficient, especially for contemporary Western economists’ latest research studies of tax revenue problem is not particularity enough. Refer to literatures at home and abroad are not systematic. Second, because the difficulties of collection of statistical data and differences of calculation methods have a certain extent affected the depth of analysis. The optimal path of tax revenue of China’ s economic growth has yet to be studied further. Third, the second half of 2008 the economic situation changes, increased the difficulty of future analysis and predict of tax revenue growth, the forecasting has inevitable errors. All of these and so on are all looking forward to the criticism of experts, in order to do deepen research and exploration in the future.更多还原