【作者】 陈洁金；

【导师】 刘宝琛； 阳军生；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 桥梁与隧道工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 城市隧道工程建设中的风险具有多样性和多层次性,时间跨度大,动态变化大,管理难度大。其中对第三方既有设施影响的风险是城市隧道工程风险的重要组成部分。由于缺乏科学风险评估工具和科学的风险管理体系,在现有城市隧道建设过程中,安全事故时有发生。随着城市建筑物越来越多,地下管网越来越密集,工程建设风险也越来越高,也越来越引起人们的重视。其研究主要分为风险识别方法、风险评估方法、风险管理理论与应用研究等四个部分,而对此进行系统研究的特别少。目前取得的研究成果还远不能满足城市隧道工程建设的要求。论文针对城市隧道工程全过程风险的特点,基于现有的研究成果,通过理论分析、现场调查和数值模拟计算等方法和手段,对城市隧道工程全过程风险集成动态管理理论、风险综合评估方法以及风险管理信息系统等进行了全面系统的深入研究,取得了一些创新性成果。(1)基于系统理论,提出了隧道工程风险管理的集成管理框架。运用系统框架可以将隧道工程的风险管理活动形成一个有机的整体,克服过去风险管理的随机性和分散性,对有限的要素和资源优化整合,全过程、全方位地管理风险。(2)针对目前风险管理机构不健全、不合理的缺点,根据贝尔活系统模型的原理,建立了施工阶段业主层和承包商风险集成管理组织结构模型,满足控制论的基本原理,为风险管理提供组织基础。(3)提出了隧道施工风险综合指数评估模型。城市隧道工程建设是一个复杂的开放系统,在城市隧道施工引起邻近设施损害的险隋系统中,施工子系统和地质环境子系统组成致灾子系统,由邻近设施子系统构成承灾体子系统,根据致灾机理选用危险度因子和易损性因子构建综合指数模型。(4)根据已有的研究成果和数值计算,遴选出隧道跨度、隧道埋深、围岩级别和施工方法作为隧道开挖危险性指数的影响因素,利用正交层次分析法结合数值模拟对四个危险度因子进行敏感性分析,建立危险性评价模型。并归纳和总结邻近设施的易损性影响因子,建立了相应的易损性评估模型。(5)通过系统分析FTA法的基本原理和方法,针对传统方法中需要将故障树底事件发生的概率精确值,而在实际“广佛立交变形破坏”风险事件中很难实现这一矛盾,引入模糊数的思想。基于故障树分析方法、模糊数学和区间算法建立了模糊故障树模型,得到了顶事件的模糊发生概率和底事件的三种重要度,并对底事件进行定性分析和定量分析。(6)对模糊综合评判法和层次分析法进行了集成得到模糊层次分析方法,并成功地应用到“广佛立交变形破坏”风险事件的后果的综合评估中,并得到了事故后果的模糊区间。(7)采用B/S结构,J2EE技术、JCS(Java Client Server)技术、JW Framework开发平台、Hibernate技术和Oracle数据库开发了集成风险管理信息系统。能够完成城市隧道、山岭隧道矿山法施工隧道的全过程风险评估与管理工作。更多还原

【Abstract】 The risk of city tunnel project construction has the characteristics of diversity and multi levels, long time span, wide dynamic change, and many difficulties in management. The risk, which has influence on the third-party’s existing facilities, is an important component of the city tunnel project risk. Being lack of scientific risk assessment tools and scientific risk management system, the safety accidents occur occasionally in the process of city runnel construction. With more city buildings and denser underground pipeline network are constructed, the risk of engineering construction is also becoming increasingly high and attracts more and more attention. Its research can be mainly divided into risk identification methods, risk assessment methods, risk management theory and application of research, while the systematic study of which is particularly scarce. At present, the research results achieved are far from meeting the city tunnel project construction requirements. According to the characteristics of the whole process risk in city tunnel project, based on existing research results, by means of theoretical analysis, field investigation and numerical simulation, this thesis has made a comprehensive, systematic and deeply research on the entire process of city tunnel project risk integration dynamic management theory, risk comprehensive assessment methods, and risk management information systems, and has got some innovative results.1. Based on system theory, the thesis puts forward tunnel project integrated risk management framework, which has integrated the expert knowledge, experience and process, centralized risk management organization, risk management method, risk management environment and risk management objectives. The risk management integrated model can make risk management activities as an organic whole and overcome some weaknesses, such as randomness and dispersion of the past risk management activities.2. Aiming to the weakness of imperfect and unreasonable risk management organizations, based on the Bell’s live system model control principle, the thesis has set up the owners’ layer and the contractor integrated risk management organization structure models, which will meet the requirement of fundamental principles in cybernetics, and provide the risk integrated management with an organization foundation.3. A composite risk index assess model is proposed. City runnel project construction is a complex open system. In the disaster system of the existing facilities damage inducing by tunnel construction, the construction sub-system and geological hazard environment sub-system make up the disaster-causing subsystem and the hazard bearing body sub-system consists of the adjacent facilities. The dangerousness and vulnerability assessment has been done separately, then the composite risk index assess model has been set up.4. According to existing research results and numerical calculation, four dangerous factors such as the tunnel span, the tunnel depth, surrounding rock grades and construction method is considered as the impact index. Through the use of combination of the orthogonal hierarchy process and numerical simulation, the sensitivity analysis of the four risk factors has been done and the dangerousness assessment model has been get. Summarized and summed up the vulnerability factor of the impact of the nearby facilities, a vulnerability assessment model has been set up.5. Fuzzy fault tree risk assessment model is set up based on fuzzy math, interval calculation methods and fault tree analysis method. "Interchange GuangZhou-FoShan deformation failure" is chosen as the top event to set up fault-tree model. Through analyzing and calculating the model, the fuzzy probability of the top event and fuzzy importance of affecting factors have been obtained and Qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis could be done for the bottom events.6. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process have been integrated into FAHP methods and successfully applied to the risk assessment of the "Interchange GuangZhou-FoShan deformation failure" Event, and has gained the fuzzy interval from this accident.7. The risk management information system has been developed. In the system, many new technologies have been adopted, such as the B/S structure, J2EE technology, JW Framework development platform, Hibernate technology and Oracle database technology, which have provided powerful technical support to enhance the comprehensive level of risk management and the emergency reaction ability.更多还原