【作者】 毛赤龙；

【导师】 沙基昌；

【作者基本信息】 国防科学技术大学 ， 军事运筹学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 如何有效地应对战争系统研究中的复杂性挑战,是军事理论研究的核心问题,也是军事理论发展的重要推动力。为了获取战争的胜利,对抗各方都尽其所能创新干预策略,使得干预策略具有强烈的创新性和不确定性,继而造就了战争复杂系统的一个本质性特征——不可重复性。作为一种应对战争系统复杂性挑战的工程化方法,战争设计工程建立在战争复杂系统“不可重复性”这一本质特征的基础上,其基本思路在于:运用群体认知的螺旋式演化应对研究过程中复杂性,使得所设计的干预策略不断演化。战争设计工程中,群体认知螺旋式演化的载体是战争复杂系统的干预策略,而干预策略可分为战法和装备两大类。由于个人认知能力的有限性和信息化时代战争系统的复杂性,战争系统的干预策略由不同部门分别制定,割裂了战法与装备之间相互促进的内在联系,其结果是战法和装备难以匹配。战争是“核心利益的零和博弈”,这要求战争局中人充分利用战法与装备之间的相互促进关系,对其干预策略进行统一设计与整合,使之成为有机整体。由此可见,战法分析与装备研究相互分离的现实和它们应该相协调的内在需求之间存在矛盾,战争设计工程中战法与装备集成分析就是针对这一矛盾而提出的解决方案。为了解决这一矛盾,论文从理论基础、方法框架、工程技术和应用示例四个层面进行分析讨论,具体而言,包括以下七个方面内容:首先,分析与总结战法与装备集成分析的理论基础——战争设计工程理论。系统地分析战争系统研究过程中所面临的复杂性挑战,基于这些挑战,根据分布式认知理论以及复杂性问题研究中的“两重逻辑原则”与“回归环路原则”,归纳总结了战争设计工程方法四维框架——目标维、逻辑维、组织维和技术维,并且分析了各维度的含义及其关系,进一步丰富和完善了战争设计工程理论体系,为战法与装备集成分析提供了理论基础。第二,研究战法与装备集成分析的内在机制——由“两重逻辑原则”和“回归环路原则”组合而成的三重循环迭代机制,并且运用微分对策模型对该机制进行形式化表述。在此基础上,提出了具有可操作性的战法与装备集成分析框架,该框架从逻辑上分为四个循环迭代的子过程:研讨未来情景约束、研讨干预策略、建立效果模型、基于效果反思,并且分析各个子过程主要任务及其关系、群体专家的协作模式、以及定性与定量分析的结合模式。第三,研究了战法与装备集成分析框架的第一个子过程——研讨未来情景约束。借助于情景规划概念,提出了战法与装备集成分析中的未来情景构造方法;基于未来情景,分析如何确定问题求解的切入点;基于概念模型结构化描述方法,研究了未来情景的规范化描述方法。第四,研究了战法与装备集成分析框架的第二个子过程——研讨干预策略。在对各类定性研讨方法总结归纳的基础上,研究该子过程中三大任务——研讨己方策略、研讨对方反制策略、定性评价与改进干预策略——的研讨组织形式及其专家的分工协作模式。第五,研究了战法与装备集成分析框架的第三个子过程——建立效果模型。首先研究如何把第二个子过程的成果——战法与装备结合模式——转化为概念模型的方法。根据链式模型概念,提出干预策略效果链的概念和建模方法,该建模方法把干预策略效果链模型分为七个环节,并且分析了每一个环节中的信息对抗效果和火力对抗效果的转换表达式。第六,研究了战法与装备集成分析框架的第四个子过程——基于效果反思。首先提出了确保反思广度和深度不断增加的“反思框架”,在此基础上,借鉴企业过程重组(BPR)概念,提出了作战过程重组(OPR)的概念;基于价值链和效果链模型,提出军事信息价值链(MIVC)的概念;借助OPR和MIVC使得反思能够突破干预策略参数量变范围的限制,从而构建出基于效果反思的完整规范。第七,应用研究。以获取制空权的设计为例,在整体上展示战法与装备集成分析方法的基本过程;以潜舰导弹作战效果分析为例,展示链式效果建模和基于效果反思的基本方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 How to deal with the challenges from researching on the war complex system isthe core problem of military research and an important impetus of the development ofmilitary theory. In order to win the victory players of the war system try their best tocreate strategies, so their strategies are creative and uncertain. These uncertainties oftheir strategies contribute to un-repeatability which is the essential character of warcomplex systems. As the theorythat gives voice to challenges of complexityof the warcomplexsystem,WarDesignEngineering(WDE)isbasedontheun-repeatabilityofthewar complex system. And its basic idea is that the spiral development of groupcognitionis applied to deal with the complex of war systems to make strategies spirallydevelop.Thecarrierofgroupcognition’sspiraldevelopmentinWDEistheplay’sstrategieswhich are classified into two classes: tactics and weapon equipments. Because of oneperson’s limited cognitional ability and complexity of war system in the era ofinformation, the play’s strategies are drawn up and carried out bydifferent departmentsand people, which breaks the interactive relation between tactics and weaponequipments and tactics-weapons matching. On the other hand, because the war is a coreinterest zero-sum gaming, every player must take advantage of the tactics-weaponsrelationship, and design tactics and weapons simultaneously, and make the tactics andweapons become organic. From above analysis, it is a contradiction that tactics analysisandweaponsdevelopmentaredividedinpracticebuttheymustbeorganicintheory.Toresolve this contradiction, the method of Integratedly Analyzing Tactics and Equipment(IATE) in WDE is brought forward. The theoryfoundation, the method framework, theengineering technique and the application demonstrations of IATE are discussed toexpound how to solve the contradiction. The main contents and fruits of this paper areoutlinedasfollows:Firstly, the theory of WDE which is the theoretical basis of IATE is analyzed andsummarized. The challenges from researching on the war complex system are studiessystematically. Basedon thesechallenges,accordingtodistributedcognitiontheorytwoprinciples of researching complex problems (dia-logical principle and iterativeprinciple), four-dimension framework of WDE is presented, i.e., objective dimension,logical dimension, organizational dimension and technique dimension. And verydimension’s means and relationships of dimensions are discussed. So the system ofWDEtheoryisenrichedanddeveloped.Secondly, the mechanism of IATE is researched, which is composed of threeiterative processes that are constituted by the dia-logical principle and the iterativeprinciple, and described by differential game in detail. Based on the mechanism, the framework of IATE is put forward, which is composed of four sub-processes thatconstitute iterative relationships. Four sub-processes are discussing future scenariorestriction, discussing strategies, building the effect model and re-thinking based oneffects. Furthermore, the relationship of sub-processes, the pattern of group experts’cooperation,andthepatternofintegratingquantitativeanalysiswithqualitativeanalysisisstudied.Thirdly, the first sub-process of the framework in IETA, i.e., discussing futurescenario restriction, is studied. The method of scenario plan in IATE is brought forthbased on the conception of scenario plan. Furthermore, the method of focusingproblemin the future scenario isstudied. And the normalizing description of future scenario inIATEisputforward.Fourthly, the second sub-process of the framework in IETA, i.e., discussingstrategies, is studied. Three sub-task of this sub-process, i.e., discussing the player’sown strategies, discussing the counterworker’s rival strategies, evaluating qualitativelyand mending strategies, are studied based on summarizing main methods of discussion,including the organizational pattern of discussion and the cooperation pattern of groupexperts.Fifthly, the third sub-process of the framework in IETA, i.e., building the effectmodel, is studied. The method of building conception model based on the result of thesecond sub-process, i.e., the pattern of combining tactics with equipments,is discussed.According to the conception of chain model, the conception of strategies’effect chainmodel and the method of building an effect chain model are brought out based onconception models.The effect chain model is constituted byseven sectors, furthermorethe transform formulations of effects of information action and firepower action in verysectorisputforward.Sixthly, the third sub-process of the framework in IETA, i.e., re-thinking based oneffects, is studied. The re-thinking framework based on effects is present, which canmake the range of re-thinking and the depth of re-thinking increase constantly.According to the Business Process Reengineering (BPR), the conception of OperationProcess Reengineering (OPR) is brought out based on the request of re-thinkingframework. And according the Value Chain (VC), the conception of MilitaryInformation Value Chain (MIVC) is brought forth based on the effect chain model. Thecomplete Re-thinking rules is established, which make re-thinking beyond the range ofquantitativechangestheonthebasisofOPRandMIVC.Seventhly, two application demonstrations are studied. The demonstration ofgaining mastery of the air is analyzed to demonstrate the basic process of IATA inWDE. Furthermore, the demonstration of analyzing the effects of the anti-ship missilefrom submarines isstudiedtodemonstratehow to buildtheeffect chainmodel andhowtore-thinkbasedonOPRandMIVC.更多还原