【作者】 马增林；

【导师】 郭翔宇；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 大豆是我国的传统出口产品,尤其是东北大豆历史上曾远销世界多个国家和地区。它既是重要的粮食作物,又是重要的油料作物,还是养殖业蛋白饲料的重要来源,在我国农业生产以及社会经济生活中都占有相当重要的地位。我国是世界公认的大豆原产国,有着5000多年经久不衰的栽培和消费历史,大豆种植几乎遍布全国各地。20世纪30年代,中国是世界大豆的主要生产国,平均年产量占世界大豆总产量的90%以上,中国大豆在世界大豆贸易中处于绝对垄断的地位,但是进入90年代,中国逐渐成为大豆﹑豆粕以及豆油净进口国,大豆产量由原来的世界第一,退为继美国、巴西和阿根廷之后的世界第四,大豆成为我国农产品中不能满足需求、需大量进口的少数品种之一。根据《国家粮食安全中长期规划(2006—2020)》预测,“十一五”期间我国大豆需求量年增长率为3.49%,2007年我国大豆进口达到3082万吨,达到了创纪录的最高水平。由于跨国粮商垄断了世界粮食交易量的80%,导致大豆定价权旁落,进口大豆价格变化的不确定性增加了我国大豆产业稳定发展的风险,削弱了农民种植大豆的积极性,致使我国大豆产量停滞不前,提高缓慢,大豆进口依存度逐年提高。大豆严重依赖进口以及跨国粮商直接控股中国大豆企业不仅直接影响着中国的粮食安全,也使中国的大豆产业面临着即将崩溃的边缘。黑龙江是我国的大豆主产区,大豆产量及种植面积占全国的1/3,是我国重要的大豆商品粮基地,肩负着保障我国大豆产业安全的重任,同时,黑龙江由于特殊的地理位置以及气候条件,种植大豆具有比较优势,全省约有豆农660万人,占农业人口的33%,大豆生产收入占当地农民人均纯收入的30%,大豆产业发展的好坏直接影响着黑龙江省经济的发展,新农村建设的推进,以及农村的社会稳定,因此研究黑龙江大豆产业具有重要意义。理论意义:本研究以产业发展基本理论为基础,界定了大豆产业的内涵和特征,并以此确定了大豆产业研究的基础框架,通过对黑龙江大豆产业的供给与需求分析,加工与流通分析,国际贸易以及比较优势和出口竞争力分析,提出了黑龙江大豆产业发展的基本思路与对策,研究的内容﹑思路及对策具有一定的创新性,丰富了现代大豆产业的发展理论。采用实地调研获取数据以及定量分析的方法对黑龙江大豆加工业进行了全面系统的剖析,准确把握了黑龙江大豆加工业存在问题以及影响因素,这些内容的研究,将会进一步充实和完善大豆产业发展的理论体系,并且为发展我国大豆产业提供有益的理论支撑和决策参考。实践意义:本研究建立了大豆产业发展的理论框架,适应了现阶段我国大豆产业发展滞后急需产业调整的要求,有助于黑龙江省大豆产业的蓬勃发展和经济振兴。具体来说有三点实践意义,一是有利于提高黑龙江省大豆生产者的收入﹑增加就业﹑促进社会稳定和黑龙江省农业产业结构的调整;二是有利于提高黑龙江省非转基因大豆的生产量,贸易量和中国大豆的国际地位;三是有利于提升黑龙江省大豆加工业的国际竞争力,加快产业发展。本文将主要以产业理论、比较优势理论和国际竞争力理论为基础,采用比较分析法、产业竞争力评估方法、规范分析法和计量经济分析法等来分析和研究黑龙江大豆产业的生产与供给、消费与需求﹑流通、加工、国际贸易、以及出口竞争力等问题,为充分发挥比较优势,推动黑龙江大豆产业的发展,提高出口竞争力提供理论和客观依据。其具体研究方法包括:采用比较分析法对黑龙江大豆生产的资源禀赋系数以及区位商系数进行区域比较,明确黑龙江大豆生产的比较优势,通过对黑龙江大豆出口竞争力比较,确定黑龙江大豆的竞争潜质;应用实证分析法来客观地揭示黑龙江大豆产业的基本状况及其在国际竞争中的态势、潜力和发展方向;应用规范分析法对中国大豆市场、黑龙江大豆产业、以及国际市场竞争力进行价值判断,课题研究应该具有较强的民族和国家利益色彩;最后运用计量经济分析法构建大豆供给和需求模型,解释有关大豆产业经济变量间的相互关系及其变化规律,分析其内在的政策含义。本论文共分十一章:第一章为引言,主要阐述了本研究课题的目的与意义,国内外文献综述及相关研究进展、研究课题的来源、主要研究内容与研究方法及本论文的可能创新和不足之处。第二章是大豆产业发展的基本理论,本章依据产业的概念对大豆产业进行了概念界定,并根据大豆产业的经营特性,总结出中国大豆产业发展的特征。本章着重论述了大豆产业在我国的经济地位与作用,以彰显大豆产业的重要意义,最后对大豆产业研究的理论基础进行了阐述和分析,指明我国大豆产业发展的理论依据。第三章为世界大豆产业的发展与经验借鉴,主要阐述了世界大豆产业的发展现状,包括世界大豆的生产﹑加工与贸易,重点分析了美国﹑巴西﹑阿根廷等国大豆产业成功的经验,以指导我国大豆产业的发展。第四章是黑龙江大豆在中国大豆产业中的地位与作用,首先,阐述和分析了中国大豆产业的发展过程,以及中国大豆生产﹑加工与贸易在国际市场中的地位,其次对黑龙江大豆产业在黑龙江以及全国的地位与作用进行了分析。第五章是黑龙江大豆的生产与供给分析,主要阐述与分析黑龙江大豆的供给与分布,品种结构,以及影响黑龙江大豆供给的主要因素,并应用供给函数模型对黑龙江大豆供给能力进行了预测。第六章为黑龙江大豆的消费与需求分析,阐述和分析了黑龙江大豆消费的总体趋势,城乡消费状况,以及影响黑龙江大豆需求的主要因素,通过需求函数模型对黑龙江大豆需求进行了预测。第七章是黑龙江大豆的流通分析,主要阐述和分析了黑龙江大豆流通体制的历史演变,黑龙江大豆贸易流通区域以及流通渠道与集散地,指出了黑龙江大豆流通中存在的问题。第八章为黑龙江大豆加工分析,分别阐述和分析了黑龙江大豆加工的规模,加工水平,以及加工效益,通过比较分析,揭示了黑龙江大豆加工业存在的问题。第九章是黑龙江大豆国际贸易分析,阐述了黑龙江大豆对外贸易的状况,分析并总结了黑龙江大豆对外贸易中存在的问题以及国际贸易自由化对黑龙江大豆产业的影响,剖析了影响黑龙江大豆对外贸易的主要因素。第十章是黑龙江大豆的国内比较优势与出口市场竞争力分析,应用比较优势模型及出口竞争力模型分析了黑龙江大豆的区域比较优势,以及黑龙江大豆的出口竞争力,并进一步剖析了影响黑龙江大豆出口竞争力的深层次因素。第十一章是黑龙江大豆产业发展的基本思路与对策建议,在上文的研究基础上,结合黑龙江大豆产业的现状,提出了黑龙江大豆产业发展的基本思路与对策建议。本研究的可能创新之处:(1)研究思路和视角上的创新。中国大豆产业近些年由于受到进口大豆的冲击,已经几乎处于崩溃边缘。为了拯救中国大豆产业,目前有关专家学者针对大豆产业的论述研究多从中国的角度,在国家的层面进行,比较宏观,另外,研究视角比较单一,多从大豆困境的成因、进出口贸易、产业竞争力、比较优势等方面进行独立研究,没有将一个产业进行整体综合研究,对具体到某一个特定省域内大豆产业研究就更为少见。至于有以黑龙江大豆产业为例的研究,也深入减少,不够详细﹑全面﹑系统。本研究以黑龙江整个大豆产业为背景,从生产﹑消费﹑加工﹑流通﹑贸易﹑竞争力等进行全面论述,在学术界较为鲜见。(2)在研究方法上,本研究应用供给需求函数模型针对黑龙江大豆的未来供给以及中国大豆需求进行了预测;在最新数据的支撑下应用区域比较优势以及出口竞争力模型针对黑龙江大豆的比较优势以及出口竞争力进行了检验,并在国际市场中进行了分析和评价。(3)在研究内容与结论上,本文力求在大豆的供给与生产﹑消费与需求﹑加工﹑贸易﹑流通等研究方面进行创新。因此在实地调研以及资料查阅的基础上所获得的资料比较丰富,数据真实,尤其在对黑龙江大豆流通集散地的研究方面,内容充实,资料最新,力争研究结论与对策建议适时可行,希望可能是对发展黑龙江大豆产业对策的一种创新。更多还原

【Abstract】 Soybeans are our country’s traditional export products, especially in the northeast soybeans are exported historically to many countries and regions. It is important food crops as well as oil crops, and it is still an important source of protein. Soybeans have played a very important position in agricultural production in our country, as well as in social and economic life. Our country is recognized as the country of origin of soybean in the world, with more than 5000 years of cultivation and consumption history, and its planting almost across the country. In the 1930s, China is the world’s major producers of soybeans. China’s soybean production accounts for more than 90% of the average annual share of world soybean. It is in the absolute monopoly status on soybean trade in the world. Since entering the 90’s, China has gradually become a net importer of soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil. The Soybean production ranks from the world’s first place to the fourth, following the United States, Brazil and Argentina. Soybeans couldn’t meet the social demand in our country. It need to be imported in large quantities as one of the few varieties. According to the prediction of "National food security and long-term planning (2006-2020)": During the "Eleventh Five-Year" period, China’s soybean demand is rising for an annual growth rate of 3.49 percent, China’s soybean import in 2007 reached 30.82 million tons, but also reached a record level. Because of 80% of food trading volume monopolized by transnational grain growers in the world, resulting in soybean pricing power wanes. Therefore, the uncertainties of importing soybeans speeded up the price change of soybeans , decreasing the stable development of China’s soybean industry, weakening the enthusiasm of farmers’ planting soybeans. Consequently, China’s soybean production stagnated, improved slowly, gradually increased the degree of dependence on soybean imports. Heavily depending on imports of soybeans, not only China’s grain security is threatened , but also China’s soybean industry is faced with imminent collapse. Heilongjiang Province is China’s main producing area of soybean, accounting for a third of soybean output and planting area in the country, being an important commodity grain base, shouldering to defend our country safety of soybean industry. Meanwhile, due to the special geographical and climatic conditions, Heilongjiang soybean plant has a comparative advantage, with 6,600,000 farmers or so, accounting for 33% of the agricultural population. The income from soybean production accounts for 30% of per capita net income of local farmers. The soybean industry development directly impacted on the economy of Heilongjiang Province , the promotion of new rural construction, as well as social stability in rural areas. Hence, it has great significance of the study of Heilongjiang soybean industry. Theoretical significance: With the research of the soybean industry development in Heilongjiang Province, setting up the soybean industry’s basic theory, research framework, as well as the envisagement of the soybean industry development, at the same time through the analysis of the different areas of Heilongjiang soybean industry, it can provide a useful theoretical support and decision-making reference for soybean industry in China.Practical significance: In this study, it set up the theoretical framework of the soybean industry development, adapted to the requirements of our country’s soybean industry development at this stage, which has lagged behind, and has been in urgent need of the industrial adjustment, helped to develop Heilongjiang Province’s soybean industry development and economic revitalization. Specifically, the first, it is helpful to improve the income of soybean producers in Heilongjiang Province, to promote the social stability and agricultural structure adjustment in Heilongjiang. The second is in favor of Heilongjiang soybean production output as well as enhanced trade. The third is in favor of enhancing the international competitiveness of soybean processing industry in Heilongjiang and its industrial development,This article is mainly based on industrial theory, theory of comparative advantage and international competitiveness theory, adopting comparative analysis, industrial competitiveness assessment methods, standardized analysis and econometric analysis to Heilongjiang soybean industry supply, demand, circulation, processing, international trade, as well as issues such as export competitiveness. These research will provide a theoretical basis and objective for giving full play to comparative advantages, promoting the development of the soybean industry in Heilongjiang, as well as export competitiveness .Their specific research methods include: adopting production coefficient of resource endowment and location quotient factors clarify comparative advantages of soybean production in Heilongjiang; Through the comparison of Heilongjiang soybean export competitiveness determines the competitive potential of soybean in Heilongjiang; applying the empirical analysis to objectively reveal Heilongjiang soybean industry’s basic conditions and its international competition situation, potential and direction of development; applying the normative analysis to China’s soybean market, Heilongjiang soybean industry, as well as competitiveness in the international market for value judgments. This research should have a strong ethnic and national interests color. Finally, with the application of econometric analysis to build soybean supply and demand model, it explains the relevant economic variables and their changing inter-relationship, and to analyze its inherent policy implications.The thesis is divided into eleven chapters:Chapter one is the introduction , it expounds the purpose and significance of this research, domestic and international literature review and related research, research sources, the main research contents and research methodology and its possible innovations and shortcomings.Chapter two is the basic theory of the soybean industry development. Based on the concept of industry, this chapter has defined the concept of soybean industry , and in accordance with the operating characteristics of the soybean industry, summed up the characteristics of Chinese soybean industry. This chapter focuses on the status and role of soybean industry in our country’s economic, in order to highlight the importance of the soybean industry. Finally, it elaborated and analysized the theories of soybean industry development, and specified theoretical base for the development of China’s soybean industry.Chapter three is the world’s soybean industry’s development and learning from foreign experience. It mainly discussed the development status of the world’s soybean industry, including the world’s soybean production, processing and trade, focusing on an analysis of the successful experience of the soybean industry in United States, Brazil, Argentina , which guided the soybean industry development in China.Chapter four is Heilongjiang soybean industry’s position and role in China. First of all, it described and analyzed Chinese soybean industry development process, soybean production, processing as well as trade position in the international market; secondly, the soybean industry in Heilongjiang, as well as in the country’s status and role are analyzed.Chapter five is the production and supply analysis of Heilongjiang soybeans. It elaborated and analyzed the supply and distribution of Heilongjiang soybean, the product structure, as well as major factors which impact on the supply of soybean in Heilongjiang. This paper also predicted the supply capacity of Heilongjiang soybean through application of the supply function model.Chapter six is the consumption and demand analysis of Heilongjiang soybean. It elaborated and analyzed the overall consumption trends of soybean in Heilongjiang, urban and rural consumption, as well as the major factors which impact of soybean consumption in Heilongjiang. This paper also predicted the consumption of Heilongjiang soybean through application of the demand function model.Chapter seven is the circulation analysis of the soybean in Heilongjiang. It elaborated the historical evolution of the soybean circulation system in Heilongjiang, and analyzed the layout, channels and distribution points of soybean trade in Heilongjiang, pointed out the existence soybean circulation problems in Heilongjiang.Chapter eight is the analysis of Heilongjiang soybean processing. It described and analyzed soybean processing scale in Heilongjiang, processing level, and processing efficiency, pointed out the existing problems of Heilongjiang soybean processing industry.Chapter nine is the international trade analysis of soybeans in Heilongjiang. It elaborated soybean foreign trade situation in Heilongjiang, analyzed and summarized the existing problems of soybean foreign trade in Heilongjiang, as well as the free trade impacting on Heilongjiang soybean industry, pointing out the main factors impacted on soybean foreign trade in Heilongjiang.Chapter ten is the analysis of domestic comparative advantage and the export market competitiveness of soybean in Heilongjiang. The paper applied the comparative advantage model on the analysis of soybean regional comparative advantages in Heilongjiang, as well as the soybean export competitiveness, and further analyzed the deep reasons which influenced Heilongjiang soybean’s export competitiveness . Chapter eleven is the basic ideas and suggestions of soybean industry development in Heilongjiang. In the above study, combined with soybean industry status in Heilongjiang, it put forward the countermeasures and suggestions of soybean industry development in Heilongjiang.Possible innovations of this research:(1) Innovation on research ideas and perspectives. In recent years, China’s soybean industry has been influenced by the soybean import, has been almost at the brink of collapse. In order to save China’s soybean industry, the experts and scholars researched from different points of view, most of them on the level of the whole country, more macro. In addition, the study is from a single viewpoint, mainly focus on the causes of soybean production plight, import and export trade, industry competitiveness and comparative advantage, hence it is not a comprehensive study of the overall industry. It is even more rare to study a particular soybean industry specified to the provincial area. Some of the study, which is on soybean industry in Heilongjiang, is lack of the depth, details, and also the comprehensive analysis. In this study, taking the entire soybean industry in Heilongjiang as the background, it conducts a comprehensive exposition from the viewpoints of production, consumption, processing, circulation, trade and competitiveness. It is more uncommon in academic circle.(2) Innovation on research methods. Applying the supply and demand function model, this research forecasts the future supply of soybean in Heilongjiang and demand of Chinese soybean. With the latest data and application of regional comparative advantage and export competitiveness models, it tests the comparative advantages of soybean in Heilongjiang and its export competitiveness in the international market.(3) Innovation on the content and conclusions. This paper seeks to innovate on the aspects of soybean production and supply, consumption and demand, processing, trade and circulation. Therefore, with the base of the field work, and the information collection, it obtained many rich real data, especially on Heilongjiang soybean circulation centers, the data are up-to-date and informative, the research is striving to be feasible among research findings and practical suggestions, it will be possible innovative response to Heilongjiang soybean industry development.更多还原