【作者】 刘爽；

【导师】 朱晓宁；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 交通结构是综合交通体系中不同交通方式所承担的交通量比重,反映了交通需求的特点和各种交通方式的功能与地位,直接影响着有限的交通资源的配置方式以及向交通需求者提供更优选择的可能性,是决定城市交通系统效率高低的关键因素和交通发展战略规划中的重要研究内容。本文分析了国内外典型大城市交通结构演变机理,研究了经济发展水平、城市发展模式、交通发展政策、居民出行特征等因素对交通结构演变的影响,建立了公共交通和个体交通结构演变的系统动力学模型,比较了不同政策情景下的交通结构发展趋势和政策实施效果,探讨了交通结构优化的理想目标和政策体系。本文的主要研究内容和结论包括:(1)本文研究了国内外典型大城市的交通发展模式和交通结构演变机理,分析了不同时期交通结构的形成原因和适应性,总结了交通结构调控政策和管理实施过程中的经验教训。交通结构是城市交通政策长期作用的结果,直接决定着城市交通系统的运行效率。国内大城市正处于快速机动化进程中,呈现多种交通方式并存的交通结构。面对非机动化方式出行比例严重下滑、公共交通出行比例难以维持和提升,以及小汽车等个人机动化方式的迅猛发展,通过对交通结构演变机理和优化政策进行研究,并采取相应的调整措施,可以尽量避免不合理的交通结构给城市交通带来难以扭转的严峻局面。(2)本文分析了特定时间与空间范围内的交通需求特点,研究了城市不同区域交通结构的差异性。采取各类政策保持中心区公共交通发展的绝对优势,尤其是通勤交通方式中公共交通的优势地位,是解决整个城市交通问题的核心。随着城市发展进入成熟期,实行规划与管理并重的交通发展策略至关重要,需要根据资源水平合理平衡公共交通与个体交通份额,合理引导并努力控制不同区域交通结构,充分利用需求管理手段,构造一体化的交通治理和结构优化方案。(3)本文考虑了经济发展和城市化进程的推动作用,分析了机动车保有量的影响因素及发展趋势,探讨了机动车发展对城市道路网络和交通排放的影响。经济水平是机动车保有量的主要影响因素,经济增长使消费需求推动型的小汽车交通在国内大城市得到了充分发展,中国大城市机动车保有量近期仍然会保持高速增长趋势。而政府投入型的公共交通发展受到需求与供给的双重制约,未能充分适应经济发展所带来的客运交通需求。城市交通投资政策重点应促使供给结构良性变化,保证国内大城市公交优先发展战略的持续投资力度,形成交通投资对交通需求的引导关系。(4)本文从城市发展与交通结构演变的互动关系出发,从城市社会经济发展、交通需求、交通供给、交通运行状况、交通排放、交通发展规划与政策等方面进行分析,探讨了各种因素在系统因果反馈结构中的相互影响与关系,建立了交通结构演变及情景分析的系统动力学模型。利用此模型可以分析城市机动化进程和出行方式发展与交通结构演变进程的关系,研究交通污染物排放影响,实现对不同交通政策的情景分析和效果检验。(5)本文以北京为例进行实证分析,研究了不同目标情景下的交通结构演变趋势和交通政策实施效果,探讨了交通结构的合理目标和政策体系。在较为理想的综合政策作用下,小汽车出行比例稳定,公共交通出行比例在轨道交通带动下大幅度提高,各种污染物排放量降低,城区道路状态得到较大改善,交通结构逐步优化。任何单一的交通政策都有其局限性,必须采取综合政策,需要统筹兼顾政策措施的技术可行性、社会公平性与公众可接受性。同时关注交通规划与投资政策、提高公共交通吸引力政策、交通需求管理政策三个层面,近期和远期措施相结合,实现较为理想的优化目标,城市交通状态与交通结构才可以达到更加协调的效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Traffic structure is a composition of different traffic modes in a specific region, which reflects the traffic demand characteristics, the function and position of every traffic mode. It directly affects the allocation of traffic resources and the possibility of providing optimal choice. The traffic structure has become the key determinant of traffic efficiency and the important research content in traffic development strategic planning.This paper analyzed the evolution mechanism of urban traffic structure in China and abroad, studied the effects of economic development level, urban development model, transport development policy and the trip characteristics on the evolution of traffic structure, built the evolution system dynamics model of public and private traffic structure, compared the development trend of traffic structure and policy effects in different scenarios, discussed the ideal aim and policy system.The main research contents and results of this paper are:(1) This paper discussed the transport development model and evolution mechanism of traffic structure, analyzed the formation reason and adaptability of traffic structure in different periods, and summarized the traffic structure adjusting policy and experiences in the process of management practice. Traffic structure is the long term result of traffic policy, directly determines the operation efficiency of urban traffic system. Big cities in China are in the process of rapid motorization, the traffic structure presents the coexistence of multi traffic modes. Facing the situations of the proportion decrease of non-motorized mode, the difficulty to keep the public proportion and the rapid development of private motorized mode, through the analyses on traffic structure and rational policies, the serious urban traffic situation can be avoided as possible.(2) This paper analyzed the traffic demand characteristics of specific time and region, studied the difference of traffic structure in different regions. To keep the absolute predominance of public transport in city center, especially in the commuting traffic mode, is the core to solve the traffic problems in the whole city. With the city development entering mature period, it’s important to pay equal attention to planning and management in traffic development strategy. It’s necessary to balance the public and private traffic share according to the resource level, guide and control the traffic structure in different regions, and make full use of traffic demand management to construct the integrated traffic treatment and traffic structure optimization plan. (3) This paper considered the promotion effects of economic development and urbanization process, analyzed the influencing factors of the number of vehicle and the development trend, and discussed the effects of vehicle development on the urban road network and traffic emission. The economic level is the main influencing factor of the number of vehicle, the economic growth makes the car transport fully developed which is promoted by consumption, the number of vehicle will keep the high speed in big cities of China. While the public transport under government investment is restricted both by demand and supply, and cannot adapt the traffic demand brought by economic development. The emphases of traffic investment policy should make a good change of the supply structure, keep the investment strength on public transport priority, and form the guide relationship from traffic investment to traffic demand.(4) This paper considered the interaction between city development and the evolution of traffic structure, discussed the causality relationship between various factors in the system from the aspects of social-economic development, traffic demand, traffic supply, traffic operation, traffic emission, traffic planning and policies, built the traffic structure development system dynamics model, and realized the scenario analysis, traffic emission analysis and effect test under different traffic policies.(5) This paper took Beijing as an empirical example, analyzed the evolution trend of traffic structure and the implementation effects of traffic policies, and discussed the rational aim and policy system of traffic structure. Under the comprehensive policy, the proportion of car trip is keep stable, the proportion of public transport is improved along with rail transit rapid development, the traffic emission is reduced, the urban road is great improved, and the traffic structure is optimized gradually. As the limitation of single traffic policy, the optimization should take the comprehensive policy, consideration to the technical feasibility, social equality and the public acceptability. It’s necessary to pay attention to three policy aspects: traffic plan and investment, public transport attraction improvement and traffic demand management, and realize the traffic structure optimization aim, and then the urban traffic status and traffic structure will achieve a more coordinative effect.更多还原