【作者】 崔现华；

【导师】 吕永波；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 系统工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 高速公路是一次性投资大、建设周期长、社会效益显著的国家基础设施,对于这样的资金密集型产业,投融资问题是其发展的关键,而要筹集足够的建设资金并安全高效地使用,核心在于必须有一套行之有效的投融资机制。由于我国中央和地方财政资金会在相当长时期内处于紧张状态,很难满足高速公路建设的资金需求,政府特许经营方式修建高速公路在我国逐渐发展起来,为我国高速公路的建设与发展做出了重要的贡献。但在具体的实践过程中也遇到了许多新的问题,诸如投融资的影响因素,特许经营各主体之间的权利与义务,投融资体系建设框架,投融资模式的分类,投融资风险评估与管理等成为高速公路特许经营投融资管理中的研究热点,在此背景下研究高速公路特许经营项目(ExpresswayConcession Project,简称ECP)投融资管理问题具有重要的理论和实践意义。本文的主要研究及创新工作如下:(1)高速公路项目资金需求量庞大,投融资问题的解决是项目能否顺利进行的关键。本文从融资形成的学说、资本在经济增长中的作用、融资制度和融资结构理论等方面进行了分析对比,研究梳理了高速公路的经济属性等相关概念和理论。由于高速公路的准公共物品特性,它应该主要由政府供给但未必一定由政府组织生产,从而为高速公路项目特许经营的合理性奠定了理论基础。(2)从宏观和微观两个层面深入分析了ECP投融资的影响因素,构建了高速公路投融资方式影响因素的层次结构模型。从宏观层次上看,有科学技术发展对高速公路经济属性的影响,有整个社会经济状态对其供给与需求的影响,还有社会经济、政治、法律制度方面的影响等;从微观角度来看,政府、项目发起人、项目公司、债权人等众多的利益相关者,由于其角色、动机各不相同,在ECP投融资过程中起着不同作用。(3)对比分析我国高速公路投融资体系发展过程和目前高速公路投融资体系存在的问题,提出为适应我国社会和经济发展对高速公路的需求,必须构建以政府投资为主导的、多层次、多渠道的高速公路投融资体系框架。(4)运用了博弈论思想对高速公路投融资模式选择中特许人与受许人的关系进行了分析研究,提出了BOT—TOT组合(混合)特许经营投融资模式设计理念,通过广义概念函数的描述确定了在组合模式中两者之间的关系,并通过支持向量机分类预测方法对广义概念函数中的变量进行了多类分类预测,并以此做为BOT—TOT模式组合的依据。(5)对ECP产生的风险进行了识别和分类,通过对不同主体、不同阶段风险的分析,运用综合评判法和三角模糊数排序方法对ECP风险进行了评估,并构建了针对不同类型的风险所对应的风险管理策略。(6)本文以某具体高速公路特许经营项目为案例,分析了其风险因素的构成,并用层次分析法进行了定量计算,得出各类风险的影响性排序,并对相对影响大的风险提出了相应的分担办法和应对措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Express way is the national infrastructure of heavy investment and long-term construction, which pays back significantly to the society. For such capital intensive industries, the key issue for the development is investment and financing. However, to raise enough construction fund and then to use it safely and efficiently, an effective investment and financing system is a must. As the national and local finance will be insufficient for a long period in the future, which is not likely to meet the demand of the express way construction, the government-franchising express way construction has come into being and made great contributions to the construction and development of the national express way. Nonetheless many new problems, such as the investment and financing factors, the rights and obligations of the main bodies of franchise, the framework of the investment and financing system, classification of investment and financing modes, assessment and management of investment and financing, have risen in the actual practice, and have become the hot issues of express way franchising investment and financing management. This paper is of great significance both theoretically and practically to study the management of investment and financing of ECP (Expressway Concession Project). The main research and originality is as follows:(1) Heavy investment is needed in express way project, so the key to carry out project successfully is to solve the problem of investment and financing. There is a comparative analysis from financing formation theory, the effect of capital in economic growth, financing institution and financing structure theory etc, and the paper researches the concept and theory of express way economic attribute. Because of the quasi-public goods characteristic of express way, capital should be supply by government and the production may not necessarily be organized by government, which laid a theoretical foundation for the rationality of express way project franchise.(2) The paper analyzes influence factor from macroscopy and microcosmic thoroughly, and builds Hierarchical structure model about influence factor of express way investment and financing mode. From the macroscopic level, the development of science and technology affects the economic attribute of expressway, total social and economic status affects the supply and demand of expressway, besides, social economic, political and legal system also affect expressway. From the micro perspective, due to identical character and motivation, many stakeholders such as the government, the project sponsor, project company and creditor, play different roles in the process of investment and financing of ECP.(3) the article comparatives the process of investment and financing of expressway, analysis the problems of investment and financing of expressway, puts forward that due to adapt to the social and economic development to expressway of our country, we should construct a dominated government investment, multi-level and multi-channel highway financing system framework.(4) Using the theory of ideology, the article analysis the relationships of franchisor and franchise in the selection of investment and financing of expressway, puts forward the design concept of the BOT-TOT (mixed) franchise financing mode, confirms relationships of each other in assorted mode by description of the concept of generalized function, and predicts variables of generalized function by supporting vector machine forecasting methods, provides the gist of BOT-TOT mode.(5) By identifying and classifying the risk of ECP, the article analysis the risk in different subjects and stages, evaluates the risk of ECP by comprehensive using evaluation method and triangular fuzzy number sequence method, and constructs corresponding risk management strategy for replying different types of risks.(6) Based on a concrete case of expressway concession project, the article analysis construction of its risk factors, does some quantitative calculation by analytic hierarchy process, educes the order of various risk influence, and provides corresponding measures and countermeasures to reply some relative large risks.更多还原