【作者】 施青春；

【导师】 徐寿波；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国经济对外开放程度日益加深,资本市场国际化进程日益加快,如何正确看待伴随资本市场特别是股市发展所带来的泡沫问题越来越重要。面对这个问题,首先一定要弄清楚股市泡沫到底是怎样生成和存在的,它又是如何渗透到实体经济中并与实体经济发生怎样的相互作用。针对这些问题,本文主要应用技术经济学理论与方法,对股市泡沫的生成、存在特别是其内部结构进行了一系列研究,旨在为进一步规范发展股市提供一些新的科学依据。本文首先在研究股票价格波动二重性的基础上,论证了股市泡沫的五个特征:静态性、动态性、自强性、结构性和功能性。其次,本文通过把股市行为细分界定为投资与投机两大类,结合股市交易和持有行为,论证了不同的股市行为可对应产生不同的股市泡沫(投资泡沫和投机泡沫),并对股市泡沫的存在状态进行了结构化和定量化研究,提出了股市泡沫结构理论与计量模型及其技术经济评价指标体系。第三,本文根据股市泡沫结构理论,探讨了股市中的实体、虚拟与泡沫这三种经济之间的关系,为研究宏观经济中的实体经济、虚拟经济与泡沫经济提供了一种新的研究思路。最后,本文着重分析了我国股市发展现状并对其进行了股市泡沫结构理论实证,证明了同量异构股市泡沫的客观存在性。本文主要有以下五个创新点:1、首次采用技术经济学理论和方法对股市泡沫问题进行研究,提出了股市泡沫二元结构理论、计量模型和评价指标体系并对我国股市进行了实证研究;2、首次从广义和狭义的角度把股市行为界定为投资和投机两大类,阐述了股市投资、投机与交易、持有四大股市行为之间的关系,论述了不同的股市行为可对应产生不同的股市泡沫,从而形成了本文的股市二元行为理论;3、阐述了股票价格波动的二重性,指出股票价格既是股票市场供求关系围绕价值波动的产物,又是股票市场自我反馈增强现象的结果和动力;4、综合论证了股市泡沫具有静态性、动态性、自强性、结构性和功能性五个特征,赋予了股市泡沫结构性的新内涵;5、借鉴股市泡沫结构理论探讨了股市中的实体、虚拟、泡沫三种经济之间的相互关系,从定性定量角度为一个地区或一个国家决策其经济(特别是金融)发展模式提供了一种新的建议性思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the extent of China’s economic opening to the outside world deepening and the process of internationalization of capital markets accelerating, how to treat bubble problem correctly going with the development of capital market, especially the stock market, becomes more and more important. To this problem, first of all, we must understand how the stock market bubble generated and existed, and how to penetrate it into the reality economy and interact with it. This paper mainly applies technological economy theories and methods to study the generation and existence, especially the internal structure of stock market bubble, designing to provide some new scientific basis to further standardize the development of the stock market.In this paper, firstly on the basis of study the duality of stock price volatility, it demonstrates five characteristics of the stock market bubble: static, dynamic, self-improvement, structural and functional. Secondly, by subdividing stock market behavior into two major categories of investment and speculation, and combining with stock market transactions and holding behavior it demonstrates the different behavior of the stock market may correspond to different stock market bubble (investment bubble and speculative bubble), and researches structurally and quantitatively to the stock market bubble’s being state, then puts forward the stock market bubble structure theory, econometric model and its technological economy evaluation index system. Thirdly, in accordance with the general characteristics of stock market bubble structure theory, it explores the relationship between the stock market reality economy, virtual economy and bubble economy, and gives out a new research idea to study these three economies in the macroeconomic. Finally, this paper focuses on analyzing the development status of China’s stock market, demonstrates the stock market bubble structure theory, and confirms the objective existence of stock market bubble with same quantity and different structure.In this paper, there are five main innovations:1, The first time to use technological economy theories and methods to research on the stock market bubble, propose the stock market bubble two factor structure theory, econometric model and the evaluation index system and carry out an empirical study on China’s stock market;2, The first time to divide the stock market behavior into two major categories of investment and speculation from the broad and narrow perspective aspects, and elaborate the relationship between several major stock market actions, such as the stock investment, speculation, transaction, holding and etc., discusses the different stock market behavior may generate different stock market bubble; All those is the two factor behavior theory of stock market;3. It proposes the duality of stock price volatility, noting that the stock price is not only a product of the relationship between stock market supply and demand fluctuations in the value of the product, but also a result and power of the stock market self-feedback;4. It comprehensively demonstrates that the stock market bubble has five characteristics with static, dynamic, self-reliance, structural and functional, and gives a new meaning of the stock market bubble;5. It explore the relationship between three major economies of reality, virtual and bubble, drawing on the stock market bubble structure theory, and provide a new kind of suggestive idea to a region or a country making a decision for its economy (especially financial) model.更多还原