年金保险的供求困境与账户年金化

【作者】 刘万；

【导师】 庹国柱；

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 ， 金融学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 本文基于当前各种基金积累制养老金计划的发展和人口长寿风险逐渐显现的背景,主要考察部分基金积累制和基金积累制养老金账户与商业年金市场发展之间的关系。本文着重分析了人口长寿风险的产生、年金保险的保障价值和商业年金保险市场发展所遭遇的困境,全面梳理了各国基金制养老金计划的年金化政策,对当前国际年金保险市场发展状况进行了系统回顾,并对市场发展的主要经验进行了总结。本文最后对中国商业年金保险市场发展前景进行了分析,对个人年金税惠政策建议进行了反思,对我国基本养老金个人账户与商业年金保险市场之间关系进行重点讨论。本文的主要观点和结论是,年金保险作为长寿风险管理形式,尽管能带来“死亡率红利”,提供终生养老保障,并能让受益人实现终生消费效用最大化,但商业年金保险市场因存在“逆选择”、“短视和侥幸”、购买年金保险面临的“次生风险”、“遗赠效用”、“挤出效应”和市场有效供给不足等问题而难以摆脱“年金困境”,市场发展需要年金化政策推动,而不断发展起来的基金积累制养老金账户的年金化已成为当前国际年金保险市场的主要发展路径。由于我国补充性养老金的税惠政策推出还具有不确定性,也缺乏与税惠政策相配套的年金化政策,而基本养老金个人账户的商业年金化又并非是一种明智之举,这决定了我国在今后较长一段时间内难以出现英国、智利、瑞士等国家的年金保险市场发展模式,发展前景仍有较大不确定性。总的来说,我国商业年金保险市场未来发展路径怎样,将主要取决于社会养老保障制度在今后如何进一步改革和调整。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper mainly focuses on the relationship between funded pension account annuitization and commercial annuity market development under the background of the growing-up funded pension plans and the increasing longevity risks. To be specific, its analysis involve the characteristics of longevity risk, annuity insurance’s value and the“annuity puzzle”in the market, the annnuitization policy of funded pension plans in various countries, and attempt to draw a conclusion of development experience of international annuity insurance market. This paper also reviews the status quo of commercial annuity market in China, rethinks the advice of favourable tax of individual annuity, chiefly explores the relationship between the individual account in basic pension system and commercial annuity insurance market.Annuity insurance, as form of longevity risk management mechanism, can create mortality premiums and give the life pension benefit which maximize the beneficiary‘s whole life consumption utility. However, there is annuity puzzle in voluntary annuity market because of the adverse select, the myopia or fluke psychology, the risks following the purchase of annuity insurance, bequeath utility, crowding-out effect, and the under-supply of products and etc. The annuity insurance market if with the support of annuitization policy will march further, which has lively been reflected by the international annuity insurance market experience. In China, the uncertainty surrounding the favorable tax policy to be put into place and the lack of the matching annuitization policy in the supplementary pension system, and the nonfeasibility of individual account in the basic pension system to be commercially annuitization now according to some advices, decide that our annuity insurance market would not follow the same growth path as in Britain, Chile, Switzerland and so no in the near future, so the market development prospect will still be uncertain in some extent. In a word, the growing path of annuity insurance market will mainly depend on how social pension insurance system continues to be reformed and regulated.更多还原