【作者】 崔立涛；

【导师】 孙敬水；

【作者基本信息】 浙江工商大学 ， 统计学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,浙江依靠改革开放的先行优势,经济获得了巨大发展,成为带动中国经济高速增长的重要引擎之一,无论是从纵向的增长速度、还是横向的国内比较以及结构性的产品升级,浙江经济的发展堪称中国经济增长奇迹的典型代表。但是,浙江经济发展中长期存在的粗放型经济增长方式一直制约着浙江经济发展的质量,其典型特征是产业结构不合理、产品档次不高、附加值低、缺乏自有品牌和核心竞争力,造成经济社会发展不全面、不协调、难持续。尽管浙江经济发展水平较高,但经济发展还不平衡,地区差异、行业差异和城乡差距仍在不断扩大。杭州、宁波等经济发达地区发展水平可与欧洲发达国家妣美,丽水、衢州等欠发达地区发展水平则与我国西部欠发达地区发展水平相似。浙江社会发展与经济发展不同步,社会发展严重滞后于经济发展。教育、医疗等公共事业薄弱,难以满足城乡人民不断增长的物质文化和精神生活需要,上学难、看病难、住房难仍没有从根本上得到缓期解,也制约了浙江经济的可持续发展。此外,浙江的社会公益事业发展也严重不平衡,优质教育资源和医疗资源等公共产品主要集中于人口较少的大中城市,而人口较多的广大农村地区则缺乏优质的教育资源和医疗资源,这就进一步加剧了城乡差距,增大了统筹城乡发展,协调区域发展的难度。尽管浙江已在全国建立了相对健全的社会保障制度,但社会保障制度还不能做到应保尽保、足额保障,各地区的保障水平还不统一,城乡间的差距、企业和事业单位间的差距还很大,还无法在全省范围内通存通兑。经济发展与社会事业发展互为因果,加剧了地区发展差异,阻碍了经济社会协调发展。经济发展差距过大,加剧了收入分配差距,结果是消费驱动型经济发展方式难以形成。为了解决就业,不得不依赖投资和出口推动经济增长,结果又引起通货膨胀和经济过热。为保持宏观经济和物价稳定而执行的紧缩政策又会对经济增长和就业造成压力。因此,现行的经济发展方式是难以持续发展的。当前浙江经济发展外受贸易摩擦的困扰和人民币升值的压力,内受生产成本上涨、资源短缺和国家紧缩经济的制约,昔日的竞争优势已不复存在,现行的经济发展方式受到资源、环境和宏观经济形势的多重制约。在这种情况下如何继续保持在全国的领先发展地位,实现率先迈入全面小康社会的目标就成为亟待解决的理论问题和重大现实问题。其实浙江经济发展中存在的以上问题由来已久,遍及全国。党中央早在20世纪八十年代就提出了优化结构,提高效益的方针政策,20世纪90年代中期中央在九五计划中就正式提出了转变经济增长方式的号召。十六大又提出了在本世纪头二十年全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标。十七大前夕,胡锦涛总书记于2007年6月25日在中共中央党校高级进修班上又作出了转变经济发展方式的重大决定。转变经济发展方式,其本质就是要走一条科技含量高、经济效益好、资源消耗低、环境污染少,人力资源优势得到充分发挥的新型工业化道路。新型工业化道路要求人与自然和谐相处;要大力发展高科技产业,以信息技术带动传统产业,组织清洁生产和循环生产,逐步实现传统产业向现代产业转变;要求充分发挥我国的人力资源优势,使人在经济发展中得到全面发展。这就要求发展成果全民共享,大力发展教育,提高全民族的文化水平。本文运用西方经济增长理论、结合科学发展观的要求,以1990-2006年的统计资料为依据,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合、规范分析与实证分析相结合的方法,按照提出问题、分析问题、解决问题的思路,对浙江经济发展方式转变问题进行了深入细致地研究。全文共分论文摘要、正文、参考文献和致谢四个部分。正文共分六章,第一章共分四节,第一节交代了选题的背景和意义,指出了浙江转变经济发展方式的必要性、必然性;第二节介绍了国内外相关研究的现状,并对现有的研究状况进行了简要评述;第三节指出了论文涉及的学科领域和研究方法;第四节指出了论文研究的内容、难点和可能创新之处。第二章共分三节,第一节剖析了经济增长与经济发展、经济增长方式与经济发展方式的区别和联系,解释了浙江当前提出转变经济发展方式的重要意义,并对经济发展方式的内涵进行了分析;根据经济发展方式的内涵,按照各要素对经济增长的贡献大小,参照国内外经济学者对经济发展类型的划分,对经济发展方式类型进行了划分,并指明了浙江经济发展方式转变的努力方向和手段;第二节以经济增长源泉为中心,剖析了古典经济增长理论、新古典经济增长理论、新经济增长理论和制度经济学对经济发展源泉的主要看法,指出了这些观点对浙江乃至全国转变经济发展方式的启示和借鉴意义;第三节对本章内容作了简要回顾和总结。第三章共分四节,第一节对浙江经济发展的概况进行了回顾,对浙江经济持续发展的原因进行了经验分析,分析了净出口、投资和消费对经济增长的贡献,指出这种发展方式的不协调、难持续性;第二节以索洛模型为分析框架,运用多元回归分析方法测算了物质资本、劳动力、人力资本、进口和非国有经济发展的产出弹性;在测出各要素的产出弹性的基础上,测量了以上因素对经济增长的贡献和拉动力;第三节以高排放、技术创新缓慢为例,分析了现行经济发展方式的形成过程,对高排放、技术创新缓慢的原因从不同的理论视角进行了理论剖析;第四节对本章内容作了简要回顾和总结。第四章共分三节,第一节阐述了综合评价经济发展方式转变的意义、方法,指出了评价经济发展方式转变指标的设立原则和具体的指标体系及经济发展方式的判断标准;第二节以1990至2006年浙江资料为例,对浙江经济发展方式转变过程进行了实证分析,并与全国经济发展方式转变状况进行了对比分析;第三节对本章内容作了简要回顾和总结。第五章共分四节,第一节从全面协调可持续发展角度研究了浙江转变经济发展方式的必要性:第二节从物质基础、技术条件、市场环境和供求关系角度对浙江经济发展方式转变的有利因素进行了分析;第三节从民营经济的管理水平和管理模式、就业、收入分配、技术支撑和机制角度对浙江经济发展方式转变的制约因素进行了分析;第四节在前面章节理论分析和实证分析的基础上,结合现行经济发展方式的形成原因,提出了浙江经济发展方式转变的对策建议;第五节对本章内容作了简要回顾和总结。第六章研究结论与展望部分简要回顾和总结了研究的主要结论,对研究的不足之处作了自我剖析,并指明了今后需要进一步研究的领域。参考文献部分指出了研究过程中引用的主要文献资料。致谢部分交代了作者选题的缘由,并对论文写作过程给予帮助的有关人员进行了衷心地致谢。本文的创新之处在于:提出了教育科技要转变发展方式的理念;指出了现行经济发展方式是政府、企业和居民间行为互动结果的论断;考察了R&D活动、人力资本、对外贸易、产业结构和非国有化因素对经济增长的影响,计量分析了浙江经济增长的源泉;构建了反映和监测经济发展方式转变的指标体系,提出了经济发展方式转变的判断标准,并对浙江1990-2006年的经济发展方式状况运用AHP模糊综合评价方法进行了实证分析;应用博弈论、制度经济学和不完全信息理论建立数学模型对浙江粗放经济发展方式的形成机制进行说明,分析现行体制下浙江粗放型经济发展方式存在的必然性,指出体制变迁是浙江经济发展方式转变的先决条件,并就转变经济发展方式提出了对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since reform and openness , Zhejiang’s economy has make great progress, and has become one important engine of fast Chinese economy growth, regardless of from longitudinal rate of growth, or the crosswise domestic comparison, as well as the constitutive of product up grating, Zhejiang’s economic development may be called typical representative of Chinese economic growth miracle. But the long-standing extension economic growth way restricts the Zhejiang’s economic development quality, its typical characteristic is the industrial structure unreasonable, the product scale and the added value is also very low, lacks the innate brand and the core competitiveness, causes the economic society developing incompletely, uncoordinated, yet difficult to continue.Economic growth is fairly unbalanced although Zhejiang’s economic development level is higher, the regional disparity, industry difference and city and countryside gap are still expanding unceasingly.The development level of developed region such as Hangzhou , Ningbo may catch up with Europe like developed countries; The development level of less developed area such as Lishui, Quzhou City is similarity with our country’s western part. Zhejiang’s social development and economic growth are uninsisting, social development stagnates gravely late than economic growth. Public utilities such as educational, medical treatment is so weak that it is difficult to satisfy the needs of people’s unceasingly increased material culture and cultural lives. School,Housing, curing are still restricting Zhejiang’s economy sustainable development. Besides, the Zhejiang society cause of the public good has also developed imbalance , public products such as high grade resources of education and medical treatment resource is centered on large and medium-sized cities , more extensive population rural area is short of high grade resources in education and medical treatment resource , this further aggravated the gap between city and countryside ,and has enhanced degree of difficulty for planning city and countryside’s development and harmonizing regional development. Although Zhejiang has founded relatively perfect social security system already in the whole nation, the social security system is unable to achieve that all essential needs are met, the guarantee level do not realize the full -amount ensures, the gap between city and countryside, enterprise and institution is very big, have unable to transfer in and out in whole province range. Economic growth and the social development interacted as both cause and effect, aggravating area difference, and blocking economy society coordinated growth.The gap of economic growth is so big as to aggravate the gap of the assignment, as a result, the way of consuming droved economic growth type is difficult to take form. Too dependent on investment and exporter to drive economic growth for resolving employment may arouse the inflation and overheated economy. To keep macro-economy and price stable, carrying out the policy of deflation is sure to bring about pressure to economic growth and employment. Therefore, currently economic development type is unsustable.Currently Zhejiang economic development is puzzled by trade friction, Renminbi revaluation pressure, it also restricted by the rising production cost, the shortage of resources and the national economy’s contraction policy, the traditional competitive advantage has not existed, and the traditional economic development way is multiple restricted by resources, environment and macroeconomic situation. In this case, how to maintain the leading development position continue, realizes entering into the comprehensive affluent society goal early becomes the important theory question and the vital realistic question which needs to be solved urgently. In fact, the above problem among Zhejiang economic developmentexists long term, extends all over the whole nation in economic growth. Earlyin the 1980’s ,the Central Committee of the Party have put forward the policy :optimizing structure ,and improving beneficial .In the 1990’s mediumterm ,central authority have put forward the appealing for transferringeconomic development pattern changing mode of economic growth formallyin the Long-Range objective and the ninth five-year plan. The SixteenthNational Congress has brought forward grand goal building an overallwell-to-do society in last 20 years this century. On the eves of theSeventeenth National Congress , General Secretary Hu Jin Tao have adoptedsignificant decision of changing economic growth way on June 25 , 2007 onhigh-grade the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Partyschool class for further studies. The nature of Changing economic growthtype is that to walk along the way of new industrialization, that is to say,development must be with high technology content, good economic effect,low resources consumption, little environmental pollution, full playing theadvantage of human resources. The new road to industrialization requires thathuman being and the nature is harmonious to get along with; developing hightechnology industry largely , spurring conventional industry on with IT,organizing clean production and circulation production, realizing conventional industry changing to modern industry step by step ; using the advantage of human resources fully make person get all-round development in economic growth, which demands to develop education greatly , all the people share achievement of development, develops energetically, and improve the entire nation’s cultural educational level.This paper utilizes the economic growth theory and scientific development concept, takes 1990-2006 year’s statistical data as the basis, the method unifies the method of the qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, canonical parse and the empirical analysis; according to the logic of proposing question, anglicizing the question ,and solving the question, studies the transformation question of Zhejiang economic growth pattern thoroughly. Full text together is made up of four parts; they are foreword, text, conclusion and postscript part.In the foreword part, the author introduces the situation of Zhejiang’s economic growth in last 30 years, appraises the mass of Zhejiang economic growth, which have been maken progress in generally. Zhejiang’s economic growth lies in the front row of the whole nation. Looking from GDP, Zhejiang has already entered into the all-round well-to-do society stage , but the develop mass still has bigger distance with the target of building all-round well-to-do society and walking along new road to industrialization ,the cost of developing are too expensive to keep all-round coordination continuing developing at high speed. The paper also points out if Zhejiang wants to continue walking in front row in development of the days to come, it must change economic developing pattern, walk new road of environment friendship, resource economy, society harmony, all-round development, yet sustainable development.Text is divided into six chapters; the first chapter introduces the background and meaning of paper, pointes out the necessity and inevitability of Zhejiang changing economic development pattern as well as current development situation. It also introduces the status on available research, points out the discipline field, research method, content, difficult point and innovative place of the thesis.The second chapter analyses difference and connection between economic growth and economic development as well as the pattern of economic growth and economic development, explains the importance of Zhejiang’s changing economic growth pattern currently. According to the connotation of economic development pattern and the contribution size of key element, the author classifies the Zhejiang’s economic pattern, clearly shows the effort direction and means of Zhejiang changing economic growth pattern. Third chapter retrospect to the general situation of Zhejiang’s economic growth, analyses the reason why Zhejiang’s economic growth has make so great development sustain sly from net export, investment and consumption , points out that this pattern of economic growth has inharmonious , difficult persistence characteristic. Taking Solow model as analytical framework, calculates the contribution size of the material capital, labor force, human capital, international trade to economic growth. It also analyses the formation cause of present economic growth pattern from high pollution and slow technical innovation aspectsThe fourth chapter sets forth the significance and method of synthetically appraising the pattern of economic development ,sets up the judgment standards and concrete index system on appraising the pattern of economic development .By using statistical data from 1990 till 2006, the author also comparative analyses the status of economic development pattern between Zhejiang and whole nation .The fifth chapter studies the necessity of Zhejiang changing the pattern of economic development, points out the favorable and restriction factors on Zhejiang’s changing the pattern of economic development, and puts forward author’s policy proposal to transforming the economic development pattern.The part of conclusion and prospect briefly retrospect the main conclusion of the paper, points out the deficiency among the paper, clearly shows the field needed to study further in the days to come...The part of postscript explains the cause of selecting this topic, and expresses the author’s thanks to those who has offered helps to paper writingThe main innovation of the paper lies on: puts forward the idea of changing the pattern of education, science and technology , pointes out the current pattern of economic development is the result of government , enterprise and the resident’s behavior interactive , inspects the impact of R&D action , human capital , foreign trade , industry and denationalization factor on economic growth, analyses the sources of Zhejiang’s economic growth, structures the index system of monitoring the pattern of economic development and set up the standard on judging the pattern of economic development; By using the AHP fuzzy synthetically judgment method , points out the pattern of Zhejiang’s economic development . With the help of superior economic growth theory, game theory, and the match model, the author analyses the formational mechanism of the Zhejiang’s present extensive economic development pattern, at the same time, analyses the necessity of transformation economic development pattern, and puts forward the author’s policy proposal to transforming the pattern of economic development.更多还原