【作者】 肖拥军；

【导师】 李必强；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 旅游地开发项目建设是地区旅游经济发展的重要基础。由于这类项目涉及利益主体多、周期长、投资大,项目决策及实施过程中的不确定性因素多,使开发项目面临较大的风险。目前国内对旅游地开发项目风险管理研究关注不够,研究成果不多。进行旅游地开发项目风险管理研究,对于拓展旅游经济管理学科领域、提高旅游地开发管理的决策水平、保障项目顺利实施,以及促进地区旅游业的可持续发展具有重要意义。本项研究的目的,就是要借鉴国内外风险管理方面已有的研究成果,结合旅游地开发自身的特点,构建相对完整的旅游地开发项目风险管理的理论框架,对旅游地开发项目风险形成的机理、风险因素识别、风险评价、风险监测、防范与控制,以及风险事后处理等一系列风险管理的基本问题,提出系统的理论和方法;并结合旅游地开发建设的实例,展开实证分析,为今后具体的旅游地开发项目风险管理工作提供参考。本文结合国内旅游地开发的现状,对旅游地开发项目的内涵及范围进行了较为明确的界定,并分析了旅游地开发项目的基本特征,详细描述了旅游地开发项目的运作路径及基本实施内容;结合风险管理理论,论述了旅游地开发项目风险管理的内涵,本项研究主要探讨旅游地开发项目的下行风险;旅游地开发项目既具有一般建设项目风险管理的共性,其风险管理目标、过程,以及市场、环境、技术风险等又具有明显的独特性。本文将风险管理研究的理论与方法较为系统地引入旅游地开发项目管理之中,结合旅游经济管理、旅游社会学、旅游生态学的相关理论,较为系统地分析了旅游地开发项目各类风险形成机理;并从开发流程和目标导向两个角度论述了旅游地开发项目风险识别方法和过程;在风险识别研究中,重点以目标为导向,通过建立基于目标导向的风险映射识别模型,论述了旅游地开发项目的风险识别方法与过程。在识别风险因子并进行层次分类的基础上,运用AHP和FUZZ相结合的方法,对旅游地开发项目进行综合风险评判,同时根据分析过程中得出了所有风险因素的权重,对风险因素进行等级排序;为弥补综合风险分析的不足,以综合开发项目中子项目进度风险为例,构建基于PERT和CPM的进度风险分析模型,论述了项目建设的进度风险分析方法和过程。在上述研究的基础上,本文概述了旅游地开发项目风险应对的一般方法,论述了旅游地开发项目风险监测、预警及控制的方法和程序,并构建了旅游地开发项目风险监控系统。在实证研究部分,以神农峡旅游区开发项目为例,较为详细地探讨了旅游地开发项目风险管理方法的应用过程,提出了该项目的风险管理对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Tourism Destination Development Project is an important foundation for the regional economic development of tourism. But the fact that the project involves more than one beneficiary, long term, big investment, uncertainties in decision-making and implementation makes project face great risks. At present, insufficient attention has been paid to and little research findings have been found about the risk management research on the tourism destination development projects. In order to expand fields of tourist and economic management, to improve the decision-making level of the tourism development management, to guarantee the smooth implementation of project, as well as to promote regional sustainable development of tourism, it’s of great importance to research into the risk management of tourism destination development project.The purpose of this study is to build a relatively complete theoretical framework of the risk management of tourism destination development project based on the research of risk management at home and abroad and the characteristics of tourism development. It builds a theoretical and methodological system on the risk formation mechanism, risk factor identification, risk assessment, risk monitoring, risk prevention and control, as well as the risk after a series of risk management in dealing with basic problems of tourism destination development project. Combined with examples of tourism development and construction, it makes empirical analysis so as to provide reference for the specific risk management of tourism development project.Based on the current domestic tourism destination development, this dissertation clearly defines the connotation and the scope of tourism development project, analyses the basic characteristics of tourism development project and describes in detail the operation and contents of tourism destination development project; according to the risk management theory, it discusses the risk management of tourism development projects in the connotation, and focuses the study on downward risks of tourism development project; tourism destination development project requires the common risk management of the general construction project, and it also distinguishes itself by its risk management of objectives, process, market, environment, and technology.Systematically bringing the risk management theory and method into the management of tourism destination development project, together with the relative theories on management of tourism economy, tourism sociology, tourism ecology, this dissertation makes a more systematic analysis of various risk formation mechanisms of the tourism development projects; and discusses risk identification methods and processes of tourism development project from the development process and target-oriented point of view; it focuses on target-oriented risk identification and discusses risk identification methods and processes of tourism destination development project through the establishment of target-oriented mapping risk identification model. it assesses integrated risks of tourism development project by identifying risk factors and classifying risk levels as well as the use of AHP and FUZZ, thus ranking the risk factors; what’s more, to compensate for the insufficient analysis of integrated risks, it exemplifies the process risks of sub-project of an integrated project to build PERT and CPM-based process risk model and illustrate analysis risk methods and processes of the progress of the project. From the above-mentioned studies, this dissertation provides an overview of the general approaches to deal with the risk of tourism destination development project, the modes of risk monitoring and early warning, the control methods and procedures. It also builds a risk monitoring system of tourism destination development project. When it comes to empirical research, Shennong Gorge tourism development project is taken as a detailed example to explore the risk management methods of tourism destination development project and consequently lead to the risk management strategies of the project.更多还原