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逻辑视域下的群体科学决策研究

Study on Scientific Group Decision-making in the Eyes of Logic

【作者】 邹渝

【导师】 何向东;

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 , 逻辑学, 2009, 博士

【摘要】 群体科学决策是决策理论中的一个新的研究方向。群体科学决策强调了面向现实的决策侧重于群体决策和科学决策。这是当今社会决策组织应对各种挑战而采取的合理化策略。本文试图从逻辑视域的角度对群体科学决策进行研究,其目的主要在于探讨决策过程的逻辑引领和导向,用决策逻辑的理论和方法来讨论群体决策,建立有效的群体科学决策程序、方法和支持体系。群体科学决策研究的主要原因在于:①决策的研究从数学、运筹学、管理学等角度入手的研究较多,较深入,但运用于决策实践的不多。②决策研究从认知、心理、思维领域的方面对决策行为的指导还不够。本文主要是从哲学、逻辑学这一研究主线出发,吸收运筹学、优化理论和心理认知研究的成果,对群体科学决策进行逻辑分析和研究,以期望对群体科学决策建立理论体系框架。本文主要回答如下几个方面的问题:第一,群体科学决策的基本属性。本文将群体决策和科学决策两者结合起来研究,从决策的纵向横向分析路径来探讨决策的深层次内核——群体科学决策。在本文第二章中分析了群体科学决策的基本性质和构成因素以及与逻辑的联系。其核心是,强调了群体决策中的主体和客体两个方面因素如何相互作用是群体决策具有科学性的要点。因此,既要讨论决策的客体因素,又要讨论决策的主体因素。这意味着决策逻辑中应该融合认知逻辑的研究成果。第二,群体科学决策研究的基本方法。在第三章中,本文提出了群体科学决策的几类基本方法:模型化方法、群体科学决策的条件和规范化方法以及实证研究方法。这三类方法对于群体科学决策的程序化和规范化建设具有重要意义。第三,群体科学决策中理性问题的逻辑分析。以往的决策逻辑理论偏向于对决策对象的逻辑分析,而忽略了对决策主体的性质研究。在第四章中,本文从逻辑全知、广义觉知逻辑和群体知识的角度探讨了决策主体的有限理性问题。这是一个融合决策逻辑和认知逻辑的初步尝试。第四,群体科学决策中偏好、概率问题的逻辑分析。主体的偏好对于决策的影响具有重要作用,而概率计算在决策逻辑中的研究一直是重点。群体科学决策就是概率、偏好的科学加总。在第五章中,本文分析了偏好与概率对决策的影响,并从逻辑的角度分析了他们的基本性质,讨论了群体科学决策下的博弈问题。第五,群体科学决策公平和效率问题的逻辑分析。公平和效率在决策评价中是密切联系的概念。在第六章中分析了公平和效率、权威等因素的作用和影响,并给出了一个粗略的逻辑模型分析。本文的主要工作和创新之处是:在厘清决策基本理论和决策逻辑基本理论的基础上,提出了群体科学决策的定义,探讨了群体科学决策的基本要素、程序构成、方法等方面的基本理论,并从逻辑应用的角度对群体科学决策的基本要素特别是主体理性、偏好、概率、公平和效率等作出了自己的分析和提出自己的观点。群体科学决策的逻辑研究有着广阔的应用前景,对这一理论的研究有待进一步深入。

【Abstract】 Scientific group decision-making is a new direction of the research on the theories of decision-making. It emphasizes that the reality-facing decision-making lays great stress on group decision-making and scientific decision-making, which is a reasonable strategy used by today’s decision-making organizations in order to meet different challenges.This thesis attempts to study the scientific group decision-making in the eyes of logic, aiming to explore the logical guidance of this decision-making process and use the theories and methods of logical decision-making to study group decision-making and then form efficient procedures, methods and supporting systems of scientific group decision-making.The reasons to study scientific group decision-making are these: Firstly, there have been many profound studies of decision-making from the perspectives of science, operational research and management science; however, they are seldom being put into practice; Secondly, there are few detailed studies of decision-making which combine the knowledge of cognition, psychology, thinking and logic together and they can not be widely applied. So absorbing the achievements of organizational research, optimization theory and psychological cognition, this thesis starts from the lines of philosophy and logic, aiming to form a logical supporting system of scientific group decision-making by making logical analysis of this process.The research of this thesis mainly includes the following aspects:The first is the basic properties of scientific group decision-making. This thesis combines group decision-making and scientific decision-making together, exploring the innermost core of decision-making—scientific group decision-making along the longitudinal and lateral paths. Chapter 2 analyzes the basic properties and the constituent elements of scientific group decision-making and their relation to logic.The second is the basic methods used in the study of scientific group decision-making, which can be discussed in chapter 3: modeling, standardizing and positivist approaches.The third is the logical analysis of rationality in scientific group decision-making. Previous theories of logical decision-making always lay stress on logical analysis of the targets worked on, ignoring the study on the properties of decision makers. Chapter 4 explores the bounded rationality of decision makers from the perspectives of logical cognition and collective knowledge.The fourth is the logical analyses of probability and preference in scientific group decision-making since the preference of decision makers has a great effect on decision-making and the calculation of probability is always the major point of logical decision-making. Chapter five analyzes the effects of probability and preference on decision-making and also their basic properties from a logical perspective. Furthermore, this chapter discusses the game-playing in scientific group decision-making.The fifth is the logical analyses of fairness and efficiency of scientific group decision-making. Fairness and efficiency are two concepts closely related in the evaluation of decision-making. Chapter 6 analyzes the functions and effects of fairness, efficiency and authority, and then makes a rough analysis with logical models.The main work and innovative things of this research are in the following: first it presents the definition of scientific group decision-making and explores the fundamental theories of its basic properties, structures, approaches and so on after making clear the fundamental theories of decision-making and the logic of decision-making; second, from the perspective of the application of logic, it makes analyses and then expresses its own views about the basic elements of scientific group decision-making, especially about rational agents, preference, probability, fairness and efficiency.The research on the logic of scientific group decision-making has a bright future in its application. This thesis is expected to stimulate more profound thoughts in this field.

  • 【网络出版投稿人】 西南大学
  • 【网络出版年期】2010年 01期
  • 【分类号】C934
  • 【被引频次】4
  • 【下载频次】518
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