【作者】 张新花；

【导师】 何伦志；

【作者基本信息】 新疆大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 当今,在世界经济信息化、一体化、多元化、全球化的趋势中,能源问题不是一个单纯的经济问题,它是国家的基本利益和国家安全的基础之一,是影响国家可持续发展及和平稳定的战略性问题,具有牵一发而动全身的意义。由于石油和天然气的稀缺性、垄断性、分布和消费的不均衡性,使其成为自20世纪初以来世界各国政治、军事、经济和外交的敏感性问题,成为各国强烈关注的焦点。独立后的中亚各国作为新兴的能源基地,很快成为世界关注的对象。为了控制中亚—里海地区的能源,各种政治、经济、军事、文化等力量不断介入,就是企图在政治上能够控制中亚,在经济上能影响中亚,在文化上能渗透中亚,在军事上能左右中亚,在世界范围内形成了博弈中亚的局面。中亚国家是中国的邻邦,无论从政治、经济、安全、文化角度考虑,还是从地缘角度考虑,都可成为中国重要的能源供应基地之一,是中国今后开拓国外能源市场的重点。尤其是,中亚位于连接世界两大能源供应地——中东、俄罗斯的中间地带,开辟了中亚能源市场,也就意味着中国不但靠近了世界两大能源基地——中东和俄罗斯,而且有可能改变世界能源供应格局。因此,研究中亚国家的能源发展状况和“大国”的中亚能源博弈对中国制定中亚的能源政策具有重要的意义,对缓解我国能源短缺局面起到重要作用。本文把中国当作中亚能源开发的“局中人”,运用博弈论、制度经济学、区域经济学理论、国际关系学研究方法、静态分析与动态分析研究方法、演绎与归纳法等方法,阐述了中亚国家的“资源立国”战略及其能源生产潜力,分析了美国、俄罗斯、欧盟、日本、印度等国对中亚能源的博弈,阐述了这种状态对中国能源战略的深刻影响,同时客观地看待中国与中亚国家合作存在的机遇和挑战,从而提出了中国的中亚能源策略。主要结论如下:1)根据博弈模型分析得出,中国在与中亚国家合作时,既要与中亚能源生产国展开博弈,也要与能源消费“大国”开展博弈。博弈可以有两种应对策略,即对抗和合作。对抗策略将使中国面临巨大的压力,并付出很高的成本,目前不宜采纳。合作策略相对于对抗策略更符合中国目前的实际,也符合中亚各国的利益。2)根据制度经济学的理论分析得出,中亚五国经济体制转轨实质上是指从原来计划经济体制向市场经济体制转换的过程,无论是激进式改革的吉尔吉斯斯、哈萨克斯坦,还是渐进式改革的土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦,都选择了走市场经济的道路,经过10多年经济体制转轨基本上摆脱了原来计划经济体制,构建了以私有制为主体的多种所有制经济并存的市场经济框架,并且通过“资源立国”战略拉动了经济增长,同时为世界能源消费“大国”和中国的提供了开拓中亚能源市场的机会。3)根据区域经济学的理论,基于中国与中亚能源领域的合作具有很强的互补性,提出了构建中亚-中国西北能源通道的设想、基本思路和运作模式。基本设想:按照通道建设与基地建设并举、通道和基地建设与区域发展相互促进、能源通道与经贸通道衔接、境内能源与境外能源互补、中外合作促进各国共同发展、通道建设与环境保护并重原则,构建“一轴、两翼、多功能、网络化”的通道体系。基本思路:“重点加强中路,适时拓展南北路,形成管网”,形成连通中国西北地区,西通中亚国家,北连俄罗斯西西伯利亚的油气资源地,东达中国东中部和南部的主要油气消费区的油气运输通道和干线、支线、专线相结合油气管网运输系统。基本模式:采用“基地建设”+“通道建设”的基本模式。4)根据博弈论的分析结果,提出了针对中亚能源生产国的策略和针对世界能源消费“大国”的策略。提出在上海合作组织框架下,实施政府推动与高效运行相结合的方略,构建俄罗斯-中亚-中国能源供求体系,搭建统一的信息平台建立俄罗斯-中亚-中国区域内能源供求预警机制,要采取多元合作、重点突破、“进”“出”结合的策略借助中亚能源、建设以新疆为中心的石油、天然气期货交易市场。中国必须充分发挥西北地区的能源优势、地缘优势、经济优势和人文优势,在西部大开发的战略指导下,审时度势,积极主动地开拓中亚,落实中国能源多元化的策略,缓解中国能源短缺的局面。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays , in the trend of the world economy of information, integration, globalization, energy sources has not only been an economy problem, but also one problem of national basic benefit and security, one of strategy problems that effecting on national sustainable development and stability, it is significant for global and it influences on every details of common life. Petroleum and natural gas, as un-renewable and the most important resources, play a very important role in the world. Because of rarity, monopolization and disproportion in distribution and consumption, they have been becoming susceptive problems of politics, military affairs, economy and diplomat for every country since early 20th century and have been noticed as one of focus issues by all over the world.Central Asia is a mingled zone of east and west civilization in history and nowadays,as a bridge of east and west , it has been playing an important role. In ancient Central Asia was a very important area of connecting Europe and Asia, was strategic passage of“Silk Road”, so different influences, such as politics, military, culture, trade, religion etc. interweaved here. Today because five countries in Central Asia were independent in succession and persistent rising of the petroleum and natural gas which has founded, political Groups and economic groups are looking at Central Asia as“New Continent”, in short time Central Asia becomes the focus of the world. For controlling Central Asia Caspian sea area, various strengths such as political economy, military affairs , culture is got involved in unceasingly, whose purpose is to be able to control Central Asia on politics , can affect Central Asia on economy , can seep through Central Asia on culture , can control Central Asia , aspect having formed game Central Asia area in world range.After independence, every country in Central Asia hopes to realize the economic independence and economic growth, adopted "development on resource " strategy, has worked out the corresponding the sources of energy tactics and plan, get support from competition of world power countries for energy in Central Asia, got economic and politics benefit, mainly cooperates with different countries in the field of petroleum and gas to accelerate economic development, improves the status in the world and has got certain achievement.China not only is a big energy producing country, but also is a big energy consumption country, at the same time, China is a deficient countries of the sources of energy, because that China energy distribution is uneven, the exploration is difficult, the energy quality is low, the high quality energy lacks, the energy reserves structure and the consumption pattern are unreasonable, consumption is not efficient, these factors cause China to be at the energy deficient condition for a long period. Along with the China economy development, the petroleum degree of dependency enhances year by year, world oil price goes up quickly, the most imported oil of our country comes from the Mideast where is not stable, the transport channel is low security, and China almost has no influence to international petroleum price, all these factors threat to China energy security. Therefore, the safeguard energy security has become one of Chinese strategy important contents, to positively develop the international energy market is one important way which solves problem of energy short of China.Central Asia countries are neighbors of China, no matter from the view of economy, politics, culture and religion , or from the view of geography, production cost and multivariate import etc., Central Asia with rich-oil & gas resource will turn into one of the bases of China potential supply energy, and as focal point for our country exploiting abroad energy market. Especially Central Asia is the intermediate zone which is links two big sources of energy of the world supply field -- Middle East and Russia , if we open the marketplace sources of energy of Central Asia , that’s mean we approach the world energy base and China has possibility to change world sources of energy supplying pattern .So, researching energy sources situation of Central Asia and energy policy of power countries in Central Asia are significant to energy sources policy of China. It can greatly promote western area of China to develop, even accelerate economic development of China.The Northwest region of China is a important base of energy and base of the chemical industry, According to the needs of country development and“West Development”, this paper put forward to build the Central Asia-China northwest passage of energy which realize China strategy to the Central Asia-China. This passage is not only a important part of energy security system for China, the key way to deep into measure“West Development”and to promote area coordinated growth’s, but also the strategy choice to cultivate new points of economic growth and to create the new space for Chinese economic growth. This passage also is the best way to open to the Central Asia and to accelerate the development of Northwest region, to improve the people living standard and to keep long-term stability. It not only has economy significance, but also has politics significance.China must exert the advantages in geography and economy, on the foundation on knowing plenty and using the energy sources policy of Central Asia to make our energy sources policy in Central Asia, so that realize multivariate import energy policy and ensure energy sources security for China. Under the guidance of great western development strategy China should use of the geographical advantage and cultural advantages to construct the Central Asia--China great energy thoroughfare, realize the function of energy substitute area and energy channel of China, and relieve energy shortage of China.更多还原