【作者】 洪轶男；

【导师】 穆怀中；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 在社会保障制度的发展历史中,社会保障制度与经济发展之间的关系最为引人瞩目。尤其在现代社会,社会保障制度对于宏观经济和微观个体都有着巨大的影响力。社会保障制度作为一项重大的社会共政策,对经济生活的各个层面都产生了广泛而深远的影响,尤其对经济增长的重要因素——资本和劳动力产生影响。因此,对社会保障制度与重要经济变量,例如储蓄、消费、劳动力供求等指标关系的研究,为经济增长研究提供理论和实践基础,为社会保障制度的可持续发展提供理论和实践依据,有着重要意义。在二战后的一段时间内,社会财富的急剧积累为社会保障制度的发展创造了条件,使社会保障制度在100多个国家迅速建立发展。近年来,伴随人口老龄化等问题的显现,社会保障制度的可持续发展问题成为各国社会保障制度改革问题的焦点。社会保障制度的经济效应问题一度成为讨论的焦点,有关社会保障制度对储蓄影响的争议几乎贯穿了全球社会保障制度改革争议的全过程。中国建立现代意义上的社会保障制度历史较短。到目前为止,中国社会保障制度主要建立在城镇地区,农村地区相对覆盖面较小,险种较少。本文以中国城镇为研究对象,主要考虑城镇社会保障制度发展较快,可以作为中国社会保障制度运行代表。如果将城镇居民收入粗略分为消费和储蓄,社会保障制度存在会影响居民的消费及其储蓄决策,改变居民个人的收入路径。而私人储蓄又构成了整个社会资本积累的绝大部分,进而也会影响到社会的资本积累。所以,社会保障制度对居民消费和储蓄行为的影响就成为宏观经济分析和决策中的一个重要方面。绪论部分,阐释研究的问题及意义、国内外研究现状、研究方法和研究内容,归纳主要的创新观点。第一章阐述社会保障制度储蓄效应的基础理论。论述了生命周期理论、世代交叠模型和社会保障再分配理论。在生命周期理论中,主要包括莫迪利亚尼为代表的传统生命周期理论模型、费尔德斯坦为代表的拓展生命周期理论模型、以及泰勒和谢夫林为代表的行为周期理论模型等。世代交叠模型包括简单的两阶段交叠模型及A-K多代交叠模型。社会保障再分配理论主要包括国外不同经济学派关于再分配及福利的观点和结论,国内学者穆怀中社会保障再分配提出的“梯度思维理论”。最后分析了对养老保险不同模式现收现付制和完全积累制对储蓄的影响。第二章为中国城镇社会保障制度对居民储蓄影响的实证分析部分。通过统计方法,利用eviews统计软件得到结论。从微观层面看,不同省份城镇地区,无论是经济发达地区还是经济欠发达地区,工薪收入对于城镇居民储蓄的影响都显著为正。从不同收入阶层看,转移收入对储蓄的影响,自最低收入户到最高收入户呈现由正到负,逐步递减的趋势。转移收入对于储蓄的作用在收入水平相对低的家庭中体现明显,表现为增加储蓄的效应。从宏观层面看,社会保障支出对储蓄影响效果为负,但并不显著。第三章为社会保障制度对储蓄影响的逻辑分析部分。本章通过问卷调查分析方法,分析中国城镇居民高储蓄水平的原因,分析中国城镇居民在现有经济社会发展状况下特有的储蓄动机。着重分析了社会保障制度对储蓄的“收入效应”和“福利效应”,结合居民储蓄动机、收入状况阐述社会保障制度对储蓄影响的途径机制。不同收入阶层、不同地区所表现出来的社会保障制度对储蓄影响的方向和程度,取决于两种力量的最终对比结果。第四章为针对社会保障制度对储蓄影响,提出政策建议部分。中国城镇社会保障制度建立的时间尚短,还不能够有效发挥其保障功能。部分保障功能的实现需要依靠城镇居民自我储蓄积累。同时,中国城镇居民普遍具有的较为强烈的储蓄习惯进一步加大了城镇居民的储蓄力度。因此,必须合理调整中国社会保障制度,使其真正发挥对居民的保障机制。通过扩大社会保障覆盖范围,提高社会保障制度统筹层次,适度提高社会保障支出水平等政策,增加居民对社会保障预期,引导居民转变保障意识。最后是全文结论。由于社会保障制度不健全,居民利用自我保障形式填补社会保障制度空白。居民大额储蓄挤占消费,使中国城镇居民不能享受经济发展的成果。中国社会保障制度只有通过不断改革与完善,才能真正起到保障居民生活,增加居民消费,增进人民福祉的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the development history of social security system, the connection between social security and economy development catches people’s eyes most. Especially in modern society, social security system makes big influence on both macro economy and micro individuals. As a great public policy, social security system affects all aspects of economy life widely and deeply, especially on the key factors of economy growth—capital and labor force. Therefore, the study on the connection between social security and the key economic variables, such as saving, consumption, labor force supply and demand, etc., offers theoretical and practical foundation for both economy growth and the sustainable development of social security system.In a certain period after the war, the rapid accumulation of social fortune conditioned the development of social security system, which was built up and developed rapidly in more than one hundred countries. In recent years, as the emergence of aged society problems, the sustainable development of social security system has become the focus of social security reform in all countries. The economic effect of social security has become the focus of discussion for a long time. The arguments about the social security effect on saving almost impenetrate the global social security reform all the way.The history of modern social security system in China is comparably short, till now, social security is mainly set up in cities and towns, while the covered area is comparably smaller in rural district, where the varieties of social security are also limited. Considering the faster development of social security system in cities and towns, which are representative for Chinese social security operation, we select the Chinese cities and towns as the study object in this essay. If we simply sort the resident income in cities and towns into consumption and saving, then the existence of social security system can influence the decision of them and changes the way of individual income. Therefore, the social security effect on resident consumption and saving becomes an important part in macro economic analysis and decision.In the introduction, we explain the issue, significance of the study, as well as the current study status in the nation and abroad, study method and content, and sum up the innovative viewpoints.In Chapter One, we expatiate on the basic theoretical study of social security effect on saving. This part disserts the lifecycle theory, overlapping generations model, and the reallocating theory of social security. The lifecycle theory mainly includes the traditional mode represented by Modigliani, the expanded mode represented by Feldstein, and the behavior cycle mode represented by Taylor and Shefrin. The overlapping generation model includes the simple two-stage model and A-K multiple generation model. The reallocating theory of social security mainly includes viewpoints and conclusion about reallocation and welfares from different economics groups abroad and the "Gradient thinking theory" of Chinese academician Mu Huaizhong. The last part of this chapter, we will discuss the effect from different endowment insurance modes on saving, such as pay-as-you-go system and full-fund sysytem.Chapter Two is the analytic demonstration of the effect from social security on resident saving in Chinese cities and towns. We analyze by statistic with relevant statistic software. In the micro scope, whether the area is of developed economy or not, the salary income effect on the resident saving is evidently positive. In different income level, the effect from income transference to the saving is suffering the degression from positive to negative as the income goes down. The effect from income transference to the saving is distinct in low-income families; it increases the saving action. While to other families, the positive effect is not so distinct.Chapter Three is the Logical analysis of the social security effect on saving. Through questionnaire, we analyze the reasons of the high saving level of Chinese residents, as well as the special saving motivations under the current economic development. This chapter analyzes the "income effect" and "welfares effect" from social security on the saving, and expatiates on the approaches how the social security can affects the saving combining with the saving motivation and income status. The direction and extension of effect in different areas depend on the balance of these two powers.Chapter Four makes some politic suggestion about the social security effect on saving. We think that, the social security system in Chinese cities and towns is still young, therefore, it can not secure efficiently. The realization of the security function lives on to the self-saving accumulation of residents. Meanwhile, Chinese residents have strong saving will which just further the saving degree. Therefore, we need to adjust Chinese social security system to exert its function for residents. We can improve the resident expectation and guide the residents to change the attitude to social security by policies, such as expanding the covered area, upgrading the plan-as-a-whole level, and properly increase the outlay of social security.The last part is conclusion. Since the social security system is not complete, the residents supply the gap by self-security. The resident saving is overwhelming the consumption, so that people in Chinese cities and towns can not enjoy the fruits of economy development. Only through continuous reform and compilation, we can actually guarantee the resident life; increase the consumption, so as to benefit the people.更多还原