【作者】 韩云虹；

【导师】 马树才；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 数量经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 自改革开放以来,中国经济持续高速增长,走出了一条一路向上的曲线。在经济高速增长的同时,社会总供给能力大大提高,经济增长格局已由供给约束转为需求约束,需求不足开始成为制约中国经济增长的主要因素。随着经济的高增长,经济结构间各种矛盾也逐渐凸现,诸如:最终消费需求偏低,投资需求扩大;国民经济总储蓄规模大于总投资,国内总需求小于总供给;国际收支“双顺差”等等,这些问题说明我国宏观经济结构存在的失衡现象。面对这些问题我们有必要思考,这些结构失衡是否会随着经济运行而自行缓解,还是进一步加剧以至于阻碍经济发展。一方面国内经济总供求失衡,另一方面国际经济环境发生了巨大变化。起始于2007年年中的美国次贷危机渐渐演化为一场全球性的金融危机,2008年年中对我国经济的冲击明显加剧。危急中的世界经济增长率迅速下降,据世界银行预测,2009年世界经济增长率仅为0.5%。特别是9月份后,形势急转直下,对我国的不利影响明显加重。我国政府应对金融危机出台的各种经济刺激方案,这些方案是否能实现“保8”的经济增长目标。面对这一复杂的经济形势,我们必须研究目前的金融危机对国内的经济总量及结构的影响,未来我国经济的运行轨迹如何变化,各种经济矛盾是否会随着经济运行而自动化解,如何评价我国应对危机的宏观经济政策实施效果;面对这一系列问题,本文借鉴金融规划思想和方法,并在此思想的指导下对宏观经济进行前瞻性分析、做出政策的抉择。“金融规划”是指为了达到一定的宏观经济目标而制定的一整套综合性、连续性经济措施,以便改进一个国家所有资源配置的过程。金融规划针对国民经济运行过程中时常出现的宏观经济问题,制定有效的经济和金融政策,目的在于合理利用生产潜力、促进经济增长、控制政府财政预算赤字于合理范围,尽可能减少对国内价格水平和汇率的压力,并产生预期的国际收支结果,从而保证经济的稳定持续增长。金融规划最初被用于国际货币基金组织在援助处于经济困境的国家制定宏观经济政策时所作的宏观经济分析,在长期的实践中发现,金融规划思想不仅可用于贫穷落后的国家,也可用于其他类型的国家进行宏观经济预测分析、研究其经济结构与矛盾。金融规划关注一国国内经济部门和国外部门的经济联系,关注经济结构的平衡,特别关注一国总需求和总供给的平衡,这些思路对我国在金融危机下的宏观经济分析有现实意义。通过本文研究说明,金融规划关注国民经济运行过程中出现的宏观经济总需求和总供给的失衡等问题,通过制定有效的调控宏观经济结构的经济和金融政策,实现国民经济总供求平衡,并产生预期的国际收支结果,从而保证经济的稳定、持续增长。金融规划的思想对于进一步完善我国科学的宏观经济管理和决策都具有理论和实践意义,对于分析我国宏观经济未来的走势、存在的问题等提供一种新的思路。本论文内容主要分为四大部分:导论为第一部分,第二部分包括第一章——第二章为论文的理论阐述,第三部分包括第三章——第六章为论文的实证部分,最后一部分为第七章,政策建议。在导论中将主要论述选题的背景和意义以及论文的研究方法等,并对国内外关于金融规划的研究状况进行介绍和评价。第二部分是关于金融规划基本理论和宏观经济预测方法体系的阐述,主要包括金融规划的内涵、宏观经济预测与金融规划。第三部分是本文的核心内容,通过实证分析法,检验了金融规划的假设条件、依据金融规划思想,设定了我国宏观经济预测的理论模型,在构建了宏观经济预测的VEC模型的基础上,对我国未来2009—2012年的宏观经济基本走势、金融危机的影响和扩大内需政策效果进行了预测和分析。最后一部分针对经济运行中的问题和面临的经济危机的冲击提出了政策建议。在各部分的研究中,本文完成的具有创新性的主要工作包括:(1)对国际货币基金组织的金融规划思想进行了全面的梳理,这在目前国内的研究中尚属首次。本文在全面阐述金融规划的内涵、方法、步骤、理论基础等内容的基础上,分析了金融规划的理论意义和现实意义,其思想方法丰富了我国宏观经济分析方法和国民经济科学决策体系。(2)根据国际货币基金组织的思路,实施金融规划需要一定的前提条件,这些前提条件的核心是金融货币政策有效,为此,本文专门拿出一章篇幅,检验、证明了我国具备实施金融规划的前提条件,这也是前所未有的研究工作。(3)根据金融规划的思想设定了中国金融规划分析的理论模型,并确定了模型的外生变量、内生变量,其中内生变量包括国内生产总值、总储蓄等22个变量,这些变量均为金融规划所关注的主要宏观经济变量,是进一步做金融规划宏观经济分析的基础,通过这些变量反映经济增长、国内总供给和总需求的关系、国际收支的变动等重要的宏观经济基本结构。(4)本文用现代计量经济方法对所构建的金融规划分析的理论模型进行一系列检验,最终建立了我国金融规划分析的误差修正模型(VEC)模型,这一结果不仅是我国金融规划研究中的首创,在IMF的金融规划预测模型中也具有创新意义。(5)通过本文建立的金融规划的VEC模型预测了我国经济未来走势的基准方案,对我国1990年以来的宏观经济运行状况进行了分析;利用该模型对金融危机给我国带来的外部冲击、对未来经济走势的影响进行了前瞻性分析;也对我国应对危机的宏观经济政策进行评估,对未来的政策选择进行了模拟分析。通过本文在金融规划思想上对我国经济做出的前瞻性分析,得出的主要结论为:(1)按照1990—2007年我国宏观经济增长路径,我国经济增长率未来的2009—2012年可以保持在11%左右的增长率,但宏观经济结构失衡,消费不足,总供求缺口巨大,国际收支存在巨额顺差。(2)金融危机通过减少我国外贸的外部需求和外商直接投资的资金供给突出了经济失衡的矛盾,放慢了我国经济增长率,由于我国消费需求不足,出口需求和外资投资需求的下降进一步加剧了总需求不足。如果我国政府不采取任何应对危机政策措施,而世界各国缺乏有效的宏观经济政策,世界经济在此后几年难以复苏,金融危机将导致我国经济增长率下滑,2009—2012年经济增长率仅为5.09%、5.73%、5.33%和6.65%。(3)政府的“四万亿”扩大内需方案更多着重于扩大国内投资弥补外资下降的缺口,通过增加投资可以拉动经济增长,可实现“保8”的经济目标,但不能从根本上改善宏观经济结构,如果国际经济形势持续恶化,难以保证我国经济持续增长。由于本文首次引入金融规划思想对我国宏观经济进行预测,编制金融规划要建立在完整宏观经济统计体系基础上,而我国目前宏观经济统计尚未完善,除了已确定的国民经济核算体系之外,其他的统计体系尚不够完善或建立时间较短,难以满足建立预测模型的数据要求。众所周知,数据是模型赖以存在的、能使经济理论得以数量化的基础。由于宏观经济统计体系的不完整,或时间序列长度不足以支撑模型,使得本文的研究难免缺憾。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening-up, China’s sustained economic growth, making a way upward curve, especially in the Tenth Five-Year period. After the 8%-7%’s adjustment during 1998-2001, the macro-economic has a success of a soft landing. It has been entered the expansion phase of economic cycle since 2002. When the economy grows rapid at the same time, the total supply capacity of the community greatly enhanced. The pattern of economic growth needs to be bound by the supply constraints and also the lack of demand has become the main factors of China’s economic growth. With the high economic growth, economic structure is gradually highlighting the various contradictions: It has low demand for final consumption and expansion of investment demand. The total savings of the national economy is greater than the size of the total investment and the domestic aggregate demand is less than total supply. It also appears the balance of payments "double surplus". These problems show the structure of China’s macro-economic is imbalances. It is necessary for us to think whether these structural imbalances in the economy as, or hinder the further economic development.On the one hand, the total domestic economic imbalance between supply and demand, on the other hand, the international economic environment has changed dramatically. In mid-2007, U.S. sub-loan crisis gradually evolved into a global financial crisis and China’s economy increased significantly in mid-2008. The world economic growth was rapid decline. According to the World Bank predicted, in 2009 the world’s economic growth rate was only 0.5%. Especially in September, the situation came to a standstill, the adverse effects on China’s apparent increase. China’s government introduced a variety of financial crisis and economic stimulus package. These programs are to achieve "security 8" of the economic growth target. Faced with the complex economic situation, we must look at the current financial crisis on the domestic economy and the structure of the total impact of the operation of the future trajectory of China’s economic changes, a variety of economic contradictions will run as the economy and automation solutions, how to assess the crisis of China’s macro-economic policies to deal with the results; Faced with this range of issue, this dissertation draw on the ideas and methods of financial Programming and under the guidance of this idea for forward-looking macro-economic analysis to make policy choices."Financial Programming" refers to a certain extent in order to achieve the macro-economic objectives of a set of comprehensive development and continuity of economic measures, improving the process of configuration of a country. Financial Programming process for the national macroeconomics issues to constitute the effective economic and financial policies, Aiming at the rational use of productive potential, promote economic growth, control of government budget deficit within reasonable limits. As far as possible to reduce the level of domestic prices and exchange rate pressures, and produce the expected results of the international balance of payments, thus ensuring the stability of the economy continued to grow. Financial Programming initially assisted to the International Monetary Fund in countries in economic difficulties of macro-economic policy. In the long-term discovering, financial Programming ideas can be used not only poor and backward country, but also can be used for other types of country analysis of macroeconomic forecasting research and contradictions of its economic structure. Financial Programming of a country concerned about the domestic economy and foreign economic links department, concerned about the balance between the economic structure with special attention to a country’s aggregate demand and aggregate supply balance. All of these had the practical significance on China’s macroeconomic analysis of financial crisis. Financial Programming concerned about the national economy macroeconomic aggregate demand and aggregate supply imbalance and other issues. Through the development of effective macro-economic regulation and control the structure of economic financial policies, it is to achieve the national economy overall balance between supply and demand. Then produce the expected results of the international balance of payments to ensure economic stability, sustained growth. The idea of financial Programming improve macroeconomic management of China’s science and decision-making power and have practical significance, for analyze the our country’s further macro-economic trends, problems to provide a new way of thinking.The dissertation is composed of 4 parts. Part one is introduction. Part two includes Chapter I- Chapter II for the theoretical explanations; Part three includes Chapter III -Chapter VI for the empirical part. For the last part of Chapter VII states the policy recommendations. Introduction will be mainly discussed the background and significance of topics and research methods, the financial Programming at home and abroad on research and evaluation the status of introduction. Part two is the basic theory of financial Programming and macroeconomic forecasting methods on the system, including financial Programming content, macroeconomic forecasting and financial Programming. Part three is the core content of this dissertation. Based on financial Programming ideas, inspection of the financial Programming assumptions China’s macroeconomic forecast model on the basis of 2009-2012.. China’s future trends in the macroeconomic fundamentals, the impact of financial crisis and the effects of policies to expand domestic demand have been forecast and analysis. For the last part of the problem of economic operation, the economic crisis facing the impact of proposed policy recommendations. In various parts of the study, this dissertation has done innovative work includes:(1)This current study is the first time for financial Programming on thinking of the International Monetary Fund conducted a comprehensive carding. In this dissertation, a comprehensive exposition of financial Programming, methods, steps, such as the theoretical basis on the analysis of the financial Programming of the theoretical and practical significance. The way has enriched macro-economic analysis of China’s scientific decision-making system and the national economy.(2)According to the idea of the International Monetary Fund, it needs some preconditions for financial Programming. The precondition is the core of effective monetary policies. In this dissertation, a chapter is devoted to produce, test, and prove the implementation of China’s preconditions for financial Programming, which is an unprecedented research.(3)According to the idea of financial Programming, it has been set the analysis of China’s financial Programming model. To determine the model exogenous variables, endogenous variables, in which endogenous variables including GDP, the total savings of 22 variables. These are of concern to the financial Programming of the main macroeconomic variables to further the basis of financial Programming. It reflected the economic growth, the domestic aggregate supply, aggregate demand relations, the international balance of payments and other important changes in the structure of the macroeconomic fundamentals.(4)With modern econometric methods it has been built on the analysis of the financial Programming model. to conduct a series of tests, and ultimately the establishment of China’s financial Programming analysis, error correction model (VEC) model.(5)In this dissertation, predicted the future trend of China’s economic benchmark program through the VEC’s financial Programming models since 1990 on China’s macro-economic performance analysis. It has a forward-looking analysis the external shocks our financial crisis by using the model analysis. It also has to deal with the crisis on China’s macro-economic policies and assess policy options for the future conduct a simulation analysis.Through the minds of China’s economy forward-looking analysis, the dissertation has some main conclusions:(1)According to China’s macroeconomic growth path in 1990-2007, China’s economic growth will be maintained at around 11% growth rate in the next year of 2009-2012. However, there are still many problems: macro-economic structural imbalance, lack of consumption, the total supply and demand in a huge gap, the existence of a huge international payments surplus.(2)Financial crisis slowed down China’s economic growth rate by reducing external demand for China’s foreign trade and foreign direct investment in the supply of funds between the economic imbalances. Because of lack of consumer demand, export demand and the decline in demand for foreign investment has further exacerbated the shortage of aggregate demand. If our government does not take any policy measures to deal with the crisis and countries in the world are lack of effective macro-economic policies, the world economy will be difficult to recover in the next few years. Financial crisis will lead to decline the China’s economic growth rate, and also annual economic growth rate of 2009-2012 is only 5.09%, 5.73%, 5.33% and 6.65%.(3) Government’s "4 million million" program focus on the expansion of domestic investment of foreign capital to make up for the decline in the gap. By increasing investment, it can stimulate economic growth and realize "security 8" economic goals. But the expansion of domestic investment of foreign capital cannot fundamentally improved macroeconomic structure. If the international economic situation continued to worsen, the economic growth in China will be difficult to ensure sustain.This dissertation was first introduced the ideological and financial Programming of China’s macro-economic. The preparation of the financial Programming should be set up a complete system on macro-economic statistics. China’s current macro-economic statistics have not been perfect. In addition to the established system of national accounts, the rest of the statistical system is still not perfect and the time is also relatively short. Thus, it is difficult to establish a prediction model to meet the data requirements. It is well known that data is based on the model which can make the basis quantized. This study faced many difficulties, because the macro-economic statistics system is incomplete and time is limited.更多还原